Ronald Reagan accurately warned us in 1984 to be vigilant against inflation because it can come, “like a thief in the night to rob our savings, rob our earnings, and take the bread off our tables.”
For this reason, the government is usually on guard against the threat of inflation. In the simplest terms, this is normally done by controlling the amount of money in circulation. It’s really a matter of supply and demand. If everybody has more money in their pocket to spend, then too much money chases too few goods and the currency becomes devalued. This, in turn, drives up the cost of everything from gasoline and furniture to food and the price of a ticket to Disneyland.
President Obama’s proposed budgets over the next two years call for spending on an unprecedented scale. His proposed budget has a funding shortfall of almost three trillion dollars over the next two years, an amount equal to a staggering 12% of the entire US gross domestic product and twice the size of the worst deficits on record. Indeed, President Obama’s own budget people are predicting budget deficits during his time in office to exceed that of all the other presidents combined from George Washington.
So, Len, just how does the government plan on paying for all of this?
In essence, the government has two choices, massive tax increases or high inflation. Naturally, the government is going to take the political path of least resistance.
Indeed, in order to pay its massive bills the United States will have no choice but to abandon its commitment to fight inflation and ramp up the output of the Treasury printing presses. This, of course, will end up flooding the economy with trillions of additional dollars that will not only drive up the prices of goods and services, but also punish fiscally responsible individuals by diluting the value of their dollar-denominated savings and retirement accounts.
Simply put, inflation is taxation without representation. Alan Schram uses the example of a man earning 5% on his savings account, who ends up in exactly the same financial position whether he pays 100% tax on his interest income with zero inflation, or zero income taxes with 5% inflation. And Schram correctly observes that if Congress tried to pass a 100% tax on anything, the public would be marching on the Capitol steps with pitchforks and torches.
The US government’s unfettered spending plan is clearly unsustainable with respect to current taxation rates. But instead of suffering the consequences that would come with overtly increasing the taxes necessary to support these insane budgets and associated bailouts, Congress will be content with letting inflation do its dirty work. For that reason I believe inflation rates exceeding those seen during the mid to late 1970s are inevitable.
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Len,
Last night, I was talking about inflation with a friend and he brought up the Carter years.
Unfortunately, younger people weren’t around and they don’t understand how this will affect them.
Just wait until they try to buy a house with a 20% mortgage.
I hope we can head off another disaster like this.
Bret
Bret,
I must have just passed through a time portal because I just now saw your comment 38 days after you wrote it. lol
I hope you’re right though, Bret. Although I have no faith in our current president or the Fed. Obama’s budget projections have him adding $10-trillion to the National Debt by 2015.
Methinks we’re in for some real trouble!
Len
I’ve been concerned that the USA might face hyper inflation. Other economist are predicting only a few years of rapid inflation of about 100% for a year for a 3 years time period.
We are lower income, we have a little money saved that would take care of the bills for a month or so. We have invested in silver. Only debt we have is our house note. We have a fully stocked pantry though by no means are we eating a beans and rice diet.
How bad will inflation get? Why doesn’t the government cut welfare benefits for those that have neither paid into the system nor have their parents paid into the system. That would decrease our welfare debt by 1/2 and only citizens and citizens children would qualify. Stop the federal government paying the $10K a child educational thing and require parents to homeschool or pay to send their children to school. Cut all foreign aid. And end all corporate welfare. Those things alone would save a lot of money. Require all government employees to go onto social security and medicare instead of private pensions and private insurance funded by the tax payers.
Allie, if you were running for president, I’d vote for you!
Remember, first, there will be deflation — but to combat it, the world’s central banks will print like crazy to keep that from happening.
If the US loses reserve currency status, inflation will be scary high. The biggest problem is, the US debt is so high now, that the Fed will not be able to raise interest rates to combat rising prices like it did in the early 80s — so I fully expect the US dollar to eventually hyperinflate it into worthlessness.
Keep saving in silver and gold. It is one of the few things that will protect your wealth when the dollar finally implodes.
You are so right Len,
it is a matter of when not if these events come to pass.
Gold and silver are definitely stores of wealth, as they are recognised money for thousands of years, and easily portable, they cant be printed, or created from anything cheaper.
But the fed does all it can to keep a lid on their prices, manipulation is 24/7, but when the s* hits the fan, the manipulation will fail spectacularly.
cheers,
Ray
Yes, Ray, the Fed is having more and more trouble with each passing year keeping its Ponzi scheme from imploding. When the system finally goes, it is going to be epic — and most people are going to wonder what just happened to all of the “money” they thought they had in their bank and retirement accounts.