Black Coffee: Figures Lie and Liars Figure

It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …

Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.

I hope everybody had an enjoyable week. Without further ado, let’s get right to this week’s commentary …

It’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.

– Upton Sinclair

Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is interesting. But what they hide is vital.

– Aaron Levenstein

Credits and Debits

Debit: Did you see this? Most people are at least somewhat aware that the government has been fudging its inflation data since 1981. However there’s a much smaller group who also understands that the bureaucrats have been fudging employment figures since the late 1990s, after the addition of some statistical hocus-pocus known as “the birth-death model.” Sadly, this model takes statistics beyond the misleading phase and into the realm of, shall we say, “intentional dishonesty.”

Debit: Frankly, the statistical sleight-of-hand has become hard to ignore this year. But while the press has been mindlessly parroting government claims that new job creation has been off the charts for the last 12 months, they completely ignore the fact that the birth-death model has added 1.84 million jobs since last March, or a whopping 43% of all payrolls added during this period. This means that almost half of all “job gains” in the past year are based on nothing more than bureaucrat estimates inserted into an excel spreadsheet – not actual data.

Credit: But wait … it gets better. As precious metals analyst Craig Hemke points out, April “also marked the 13th consecutive month that the (labor) report somehow managed to ‘beat expectations.’ This is unprecedented and, along with the consistent downside revisions that follow, should make it obvious to everyone that the government employees at the BLS are actively gaming the report for political purposes.” Curiously, despite a supposedly-booming economy with more and more people finding jobs every month, the growth in withheld taxes has been in a steady decline since the beginning of 2022. It’s all so odd.

Debit:  Then again, anybody who tries to compare the current banking crisis to the number of banks that went down in the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 should be horrified. After all, the failures already amount to hundreds of billions more than what was seen during the GFC. The trouble is, since then, the Fed has increased its balance sheet from $900 billion to more than $9 trillion, while the National Debt has quadrupled from $8 trillion to almost $32 trillion.

Debit: The truth is, the Fed lost control of the debt-based monetary system in 2008. In essence, that’s when the USS America hit the iceberg. Since then, the hole in the hull hasn’t been fixed; the Fed has simply papered it over with a gargantuan amount of debt. As for the entrenched inflation, that’s the monetary system’s stern rising into the air before it takes its final plunge to Davey Jones’ Locker. Don’t think the Fed isn’t aware of this, which begs the question: What else does the Fed know that they aren’t admitting? I think I’ve got the answer. But we should probably ask this guy. You know … just to be sure:

Credit: You’d think all of this would be obvious – especially to those who supposedly should know better. However, as Brandon Smith points out, “Not long ago we had Janet Yellen and Paul Krugman, economists supposedly at the front of the pack, both proving to be utterly ignorant – or strategically dishonest – on the effects of central bank stimulus measures and the threat of inflation. In fact, they both consistently denied such a threat existed until they were crushed by the evidence.” Well … at least the stock market is soaring thanks to all of that stimulus … er, assuming we define Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google as “the stock market.”

Debit:  Of course, the general public will never wake up as long as the nation’s leading government economists and bureaucrats continue to fudge the data so they can pretend nothing is wrong. So here we are; waiting for that infamous Minsky Moment when people realize the situation will never get better until and unless the US dollar is sharply devalued relative to gold, or we get a new monetary system entirely. And for the record, a trillion-dollar coin won’t reform anything.

Debit:  The good news is most mainstream economists seem to be awakening from their decades-long slumber. As Smith points out, 80% of economists now acknowledge that central banks “face a trade-off between managing inflation and maintaining financial sector stability.” They’re also predicting a prolonged period of higher interest rates that could compromise Western central banks’ ability to rein in inflation. Although it appears some Fed members didn’t get the memo. Probably because they were too busy reading the works of Yogi Berra:

Debit: In the meantime, a study on the fragility of the US banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure – even if only half of their uninsured depositors who stand to lose a part of their deposits if the bank fails, decide to withdraw their funds. So unless these American banks are able to stop the cash erosion that’s now rapidly undermining these institutions’ fiscal foundations, they’re going to eventually end up in a situation similar to this:

Credit: Oh … and for those of you wondering when all of these bank runs will finally end, sagacious macroeconomic commentator Franklin Sanders provides a pithy answer: “When there’s only one bank.”

Credit: By the way, Mr. Sanders also pointed to a new Silver Institute survey that reveals two nuggets of staggering news: First, the silver supply deficit in 2021 and 2022 consumed the previous 11 years’ cumulative surpluses. And if that’s not enough, the Institute is forecasting another large silver deficit this year. Hey … I’m not sayin’. I’m just sayin’.

Credit: We’ll close this week with some parting wisdom from Mr. Smith who says, “When the establishment itself is openly acknowledging that gravity exists and that we are falling instead of flying, it’s time to get ready and take cover. They never admit the truth unless the worst case scenario is right around the corner.” That makes a lot of sense. If true, the amount of time available to grab a financial lifeboat via physical gold and/or silver is growing short. For responsible people, that should be a no-brainer decision. But, sadly, most of them are going to go down with the ship anyway.

The 13th annual Mother’s Day Index is out and it has found that the work moms typically perform for their families this year could justify an annual composite salary of more than $133,000. That’s an increase of 5% over last year’s findings. Here are the ten “mom jobs” that contributed the most on a pro-rated basis to that $133,000 composite salary:

$2852 Laundry worker

$4786 Mental health worker

$7876 Chauffeur

$7982 Maid

$10,774 Cook

$11,085 Judge

$11,914 Social worker

$12,776 Miscellaneous instructor

$23,537 School teacher

$29,578 Childcare worker

Source: Insure.com

Last Week’s Poll Result

How much was your federal tax refund this year?

• I didn’t get a refund (43%)
• $1000 or more (31%)
• Less than $1000 (26%)

More than 2000 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week’s question and it turns out that almost 3 in 5 received a refund this year, with more than half of those totaling more than $1000 – as was mine. Although now that I’m retired, I expect my days of receiving future large tax refunds are gone.

If you have a question you’d like me to ask the readers here, send it to me at Len@LenPenzo.com and be sure to put “Question of the Week” in the subject line.

[poll id=”474″]

Useless News: Decisions, Decisions

A man died and went to Heaven; at the Pearly Gates he was told he had a choice of Heaven or Hell. To help him decide, an angel took him on a tour.

Heaven was beautiful, and tranquil.

When the tour was finished, the man said he wanted to see what Hell was like. So the devil obliged by showing him around Hades – and what a tour it was! The man was wined and dined. The place had gorgeous weather, golf courses, free-flowing booze, and beautiful women, with parties going on everywhere.

After touring Hades, the man returned to the Pearly Gates and said, “I want to go to Hell.”

The angel said, “Are you sure? Because once you’re there, you can’t change your mind.”

“I’m sure,” replied the man.

Poof! He was in Hell. Only this time it was hot, with suffering everywhere. And everyone was being tormented.

So the man said to the devil, “I don’t understand. When I got here I saw nothing but perfect weather, great golf courses, free-flowing booze, beautiful women, and parties everywhere.”

The devil said, “Oh, that’s our PR department; they’re all former politicians. They promise want you want to hear. But when you finally get it, it’s hell.”

(h/t: Bill)

More Useless News

Here are the top — and bottom — five states in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:

1. Kansas (2.26 pages/visit)
2. Connecticut (2.21)
3. Arkansas (2.16)
4. Tennessee (2.10)
5. Massachusetts (2.09)

46. Mississippi (1.54)
47. Alaska (1.51)
48. Wyoming (1.50)
49. Oregon (1.41)
50. West Virginia (1.31)

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Letters, I Get Letters

Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment — assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it’s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: Len@LenPenzo.com

This week’s article on Starbucks’ expensive coffee drew plenty of interesting responses, including this one from Garrett, who took exception to my suggestion for saving money by brewing Folgers at home:

I agree that Starbucks is overrated and overpriced, but Folgers?? Come on.

You’re right — but I was on a tight deadline and Chock Full O’ Nuts was too many words.

If you enjoyed this edition of Black Coffee and found it to be informative, please forward it to your friends and family. Thank you! 😀

I’m Len Penzo and I approved this message.

Photo Credit: public domain