The End of the World & Other Magic 8-Ball Predictions for 2012

Happy new year, readers!

Like last year, I’m kicking off the start of 2012 with more fearless predictions from my old friend, the Magic 8-Ball.

In case you missed it, the Magic 8-Ball ended 2010 with an astounding 70 percent success rate, and I’m happy to say the predictions for 2011 were almost as good, as the 8-ball was accurate 66 percent of the time.

Of course, this year the 8-ball was pelted with questions from readers and fellow bloggers looking to get a leg up regarding what’s in store for 2012. (I know. I can’t believe it either.)

Anyway, let’s get right to them. Tradition dictates that the Financial Samurai always gets to ask the first question, and here it is:

Q: Will real estate continue to rebound in major cities such as San Francisco and New York?

A: Ask again later.

I’m asking you now.

A: Outlook not so good.

I have to agree with you on this one, 8-Ball. The market is clearly being artificially propped up by government subsidized mortgages, ridiculously low interest rates and banks that are still withholding large backlogs of foreclosed properties from entering the market.

On a related note, I see Jennifer from Little House in the Valley has a follow-up question:

Q: Will the housing market continue its spiraling descent in 2012?

A: Outlook good.

Okay, but obviously “good” is a poor choice of words.

The next set of questions come from Maggie at Square Pennies:

Q: Will Ron Paul win the presidency?

A: Better not tell you now.

Okay. Thankfully, Maggie also asked the question from a different angle. Let’s see if that will get you to open up.

Q: Will Newt Gingrich win the Republican nomination?

A: Cannot predict now.

Well, this is embarrassing. I guess even my 8-ball can suffer from a little performance anxiety every now and then. I’ll take some pressure off by getting a bit less specific:

Q: Will a Republican be elected president in 2012?

A: Cannot predict now.

Oh, really? Get this: I suggest you try again, 8-Ball, or I’ll outsource the rest of these predictions to a tarot card reader while you find yourself sitting on a flimsy card table at our next garage sale. So let’s try it again:

Q: Will a Republican be elected president in 2012?

A: It is certain.

Thank you. Meanwhile, Nelson from Financial Uproar wants to know:

Q: Will the European Union break up?

A: You may rely on it.

Agreed. I suspect the EU will stay together in some form, although it will probably be sans many entitlement-heavy nations.

On a related note comes this question from Average Joe:

Q: Will Italy and Greece finally default on their debt?

A: Very doubtful.

Time will tell. I believe a default by Greece is inevitable — the only question is when. My bet is that Greece defaults in 2012 and that will then precipitate a partial breakup of the EU.

Let’s lighten things up a bit. My friend Paula from Afford Anything asks:

Q: Will Prince William and Kate Middleton announce a pregnancy?

A: Without a doubt.

I just hope the pregnancy they’ll be announcing is their own.

Switching to the world of sports, Erin is dying to know:

Q: Will the Green Bay Packers win the Super Bowl in 2012?

A: My reply is no.

I’m with you, 8-Ball. Although I’m no football expert, I suspect the Pack won’t even make it to the big game this year.

Jacob has another sports-related question, but this one is on golf:

Q: Will Tiger Woods win a major in 2012?

A: Most likely.

I think the 8-ball is wrong here. Tiger’s fortunes have sunk so low that, even TMZ found it newsworthy when he finally broke a two-year victory drought in December 2011.

Next up are two questions from folks concerned about Apple stock. First up is Bill, who wants to know:

Q: Will Apple�s stock price end 2012 higher than its closing price on the day Steve Jobs died?

A: You may rely on it.

We’ll see. The day Job’s death was announced, Apple’s closing share price was $377.37; it’s starting 2012 at $405.

Meanwhile, Hank from Money Q&A wonders:

Q: Will Apple finally begin issuing a dividend in 2012?

A: Outlook good.

The 8-Ball’s response confirms rampant rumors that Apple, which is currently sitting on billions of dollars in cash, will indeed reward stockholders by reintroducing stock dividends this year, after originally dropping them during leaner times in 1995.

Becky asks:

Q: Will savings account interest rates rise in 2012?

A: My sources say no.

That isn’t good news for senior citizens and others who are living on fixed incomes — especially, if inflation continues to be worse than the government keeps telling us.

My good friend, Dr. Dean from the Millionaire Nurse Blog was kind enough to play straight-man today by offering this follow-up:

Q: Will inflation hit 4 percent in 2012?

A: Very doubtful.

If we’re going to use the official government statistics — and we are — I think the 8-ball is correct.

The next two questions take us back to the stock market. First up is my friend, Crystal from Budgeting in the Fun Stuff:

Q: Will the Dow break 13,500?

A: My reply is no.

I think the 8-ball is right on this one. In fact, I suspect the Dow will finish 2012 in the red, although it will experience a sharp rebound in the latter half of the fourth quarter.

And it looks like Dr. Dean is hoping the 8-ball will be kind enough to give him a hot tip for the new year:

Q: Will Microsoft hit 30 bucks in 2012?

A: As I see it, yes.

With this stock starting the new year at $25.96, that would represent a hefty return for 2012. I think the 8-ball is all wet.

Switching to the unemployment picture, Kay Lynn from Bucksome Boomer asks:

Q: Will the unemployment rate fall to 7 percent?

A: Yes.

I think the only way this is going to happen, 8-Ball, is if the number of people actively looking for work continues dropping, since the government doesn’t count them as unemployed. But we’ll see.

I see Jacob is back and this time he has precious metals on his mind:

Q: Will gold top $2000?

A: Signs point to yes.

That’s good news for the gold bugs. If you ask me, though, I think silver will be the biggest mover of the two in 2012.

Geoff, better known as the Car Negotiation Coach, had an interesting query:

Q: Will online poker become legalized in the U.S. in 2012 (and make the government billions in taxes)?

A: It is certain.

Somehow, I doubt that.

For the second year in a row, Pamela wants some insight into Jennifer Aniston’s love life:

Q: Will Jennifer Aniston get engaged in 2012?

A: Outlook good.

Fascinating. Who needs People when we’ve got the Magic 8-Ball?

Meanwhile, my friend Greg from Control Your Cash wants to know:

Q: Will the components of the Dow stay unchanged in 2012? (Bank of America is in, while Google and Apple are on the outside?)

A: Outlook not so good.

I should note that, last year, Greg correctly predicted here that student loans would be the focus of a government bail out in 2011. It’ll be interesting to see if he’s similarly prescient in 2012 with respect to the Dow.

Finally, Chris wraps up our annual prediction party with a question that is, for many people, perhaps the biggest concern of the new year:

Q: Will the world end in 2012?

A: Don’t count on it.

Uh huh. I don’t believe in all that hokey Mayan prophecy either, 8-Ball. Hopefully your comforting prediction will be good enough to finally put such an absurdly unfounded fear to rest for good.

Oops. I guess I spoke too soon. Jennifer from Little House is back and she still wants to know:

Q: When the world finally does end, will zombies make a comeback?

A: Reply hazy, try again.

Heh. I don’t think so.

Photo Credit: Andrew Malone