Every year on Groundhog Day, folks eager to know whether there will be six more weeks of winter wait for Punxsutawney Phil to emerge from his burrow. Since 1887, the storied groundhog has failed to see his shadow — thereby predicting an early spring, as legend has it — only 15 times. How accurate is he? According to the Stormfax Weather Almanac, Phil’s prognostic powers are pretty putrid; in fact, he’s been correct only 39% of the time. Flipping a coin would be more precise.
The bottom line: If you’re someone who insists on getting your weather report from a 130-year-old rodent … I can’t help you.
Photo Credit: Matt MacGillivray
It’s amazing how much this has to do with finance, when at first blush it has NOTHING to do with finance. People definitely hold onto old thoughts and misguided ideas too long….
Hey, Joe. (I’ve been dying to say that for awhile now.) As you may or may not know, we cover all kinds of stuff here at “100 Words” not related to finance including such provocative topics as: why it’s not bad etiquette to put ketchup on a hot dog; the best property to buy when playing Monopoly; and that culinary abomination better known as “Miracle Whip.”
Sir Walter Wally has been right more than Phil! http://naturalsciences.org/programs-events/groundhog-day-3
With Phil’s track record, Shannon, I’m not surprised. I’m certain even the quarter in my pocket is a better prognosticator. ๐
Hey instead of complaining about the groundhog how about given the rodent some help with your 8-ball forcaster!
http://lenpenzo.com/blog/id8546-the-end-of-the-world-other-magic-8-ball-predictions-for-2012.html
Hmm, since were on topic, what DOES your 8-ball say for spring forcast…
Good question, Mick. Let’s see:
Q: Magic 8-Ball, will there be an early spring this year?
A: “My sources say no.”
There you have it, folks. The 8-Ball agrees with Punxsutawney Phil — and Sir Walter Wally!
Given that, where can I go to place a bet on this?? ๐
I found at least two places that were taking bets prior to Groundhog Day on whether Phil would see his shadow. Here is one:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1551865-groundhog-day-prop-will-punxsutawney-phil-see-his-shadow.html
Not sure if there is a place that took bets based on actual prediction results though.
Isn’t human nature tha we like like these folksy silly things whether it is accurate or not? Look at all the superstitious things we do or don’t do because of some silly thing.
Well … it’s definitely sillier than, say, believing in the wisdom of a Magic 8 Ball! ๐
Here in Georgia, our local rodent prognosticator extraordinaire is called General Beauregard Lee. Apparently he saw his shadow today, so we get an early spring.
That’s not such a hard prediction, given that spring usually comes early in the South anyway. ๐
A funny headline today: Groundhog Wars! Apparently the various groundhogs around the US and Canada cannot agree on a prediction.
I hate to break this to you, DC… but if “the General” saw his shadow then it’s 6 more weeks of winter. ๐
I know. It’s completely counter-intuitive!
(Never mind most of the country hasn’t had much of a winter so far anyway.)
D’oh! I would go and get that turned around. The article had it right – the General did NOT see his shadow, hence an early spring.
I’ve never understood why poor weather (overcast) predicts an early spring. Ah well, back to reading tea leaves and chicken entrails….
Meanwhile, the General better watch out. He’s been outsourced in Southwest Georgia by a meerkat named Asante.
http://www.ajc.com/news/this-kat-agrees-with-1326827.html
“Ive never understood why poor weather (overcast) predicts an early spring”
I think the theory is that weather cycles last about six weeks – alternating cool and warm. According to the theory, cloudy = cool, so next cycle will be warmer (early spring).
Who came up with this name Punxsutawney Phil? English is my third language, so I won’t even try to pronounce it. I’ll just call him Phil. I think we should use Phil to predict the US market fluctuations. 39% is not too shabby. I am kidding, all right? ๐
Not sure, Aloysa, but don’t feel bad — English is my first language and I can’t even pronounce it. ๐
I’m betting against the groundhog, at least around here. Their burrows were everywhere in our pastures in the 1970s.
I’ve only seen two in the past ten years – lived under my barn until I sent them to the Happy Weather Underground because they dined in our vegetable garden.
Succumbed to rabies and coyotes, I suppose.
How are you betting in Eastern Tennessee, Andy?
Snowing, high today not projected above freezing, so spring looks like a ways down the road yet. But mid next week, supposed to be in the 60’s.
“If you don’t like the weather here, just wait a few days” to quote a local forecaster.
Had a ground hog wiping out our garden last year….he succumbed to a Conibear #2 trap.
Jokes on Phil, he can see his shadow or not, here in Maine we’re going to have at least 6 more weeks of winter!
Hey I live in PA and always believe in Phil. My daughter went to see Phil one year while attending school in Punxsutawney. She said those people really get into it. Has anyone seen the movie Groundhog Day? Cheryl
Here in Western New York state, only six more weeks of winter would be a gift! It’s really more like 12 more weeks before it turns nicer here. Brrrrrr……..