Black Coffee: Cash Cows & Dead Cats

It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …

Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.

I hope everybody had an enjoyable week. Without further ado, let’s get right to this week’s commentary …

More people should learn to tell their dollars where to go instead of asking them where they went.

– Roger Babson

Too many people spend money they haven’t earned to buy things they don’t want to impress people they don’t like.

– Will Rogers

Credits and Debits

Credit: Did you see this? Last year, Northwestern Mutual surveyed Americans on their thoughts about how much they would need to retire comfortably. It turns out that the respondents said they needed an average of $1.46 million. Fast forward to this year: A new survey has revealed that the number has fallen $200,000 to $1.26 million. That’s definitely welcome news, if not more than a bit unexpected! Oh … and speaking of unexpected:

Credit: But wait … there’s more good news. A competing study concluded that the average “magic number” for all Americans was even less. They estimated that a comfortable 20-year retirement would cost an average of $1.05 million. Curiously, this study also estimated retirement spending to be $162,000 per year, which seems quite high to us – and we live in California! In any case, the analysts concluded that starting at age 20, one would need to save $4334 every month to reach that spending target and cover costs through age 85, while starting at age 30, increases that figure to $5573 a month. The question is: Will they?

Debit: Unfortunately, with Gen X now approaching their retirement years, the Northwestern Mutual study found that a majority of them say that they won’t be prepared when the time comes. According to the survey, 52% of Gen Xers said they have just three times their current annual income saved – at most. Sadly, the majority of Gen X have saved far far less than that – and time is running out. So unless they plan on living on rice and beans in retirement, a five-figure (or less) nest egg ain’t going to cut it. Hey … sow the wind, reap the whirlwind. Let’s just hope Gen X is feverishly preparing now — because it’s coming …

Credit: In other news, soaring food prices have Americans – to almost nobody’s surprise – increasingly turning to store-brands to save money. In 2023, sales of generic grocery products were up 5.0%, while last year they grew another 3.9%. Then again, it’s not only American households that are looking for alternative ways to save money these days …

Debit: Of course, seeking refuge in store brands is a natural reaction to higher grocery prices – just as higher prices are a natural reaction to the US government conjuring an unlimited number of US dollars (USD) out of thin air to “pay” for its profligate spending. Just don’t tell that to the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT; a.k.a. Magic Money Tree) crowd; they insist that the currency spigot can be left open with absolutely ZERO consequences. That being said, what are the odds of those MMT “experts” ever admitting that obvious truth? Our guess is about the same odds as this …

Credit: On the macro-front, reports are out that say Japan is using its $1 trillion plus stash of US treasuries in negotiations with American officials on tariffs. That got the sagacious Franklin Sanders to ponder the implications. He says, “I reckon that’s enough of a threat to set every nerve in (US Treasury Secretary) Scott Basset’s body a-burnin’. It is suspected the Chinese have already been doing that. Imagine what massive US Treasury (UST) security sales would do to the USD — drive it down to the earth’s core — and to interest rates — drive them into the stratosphere.”

Debit: Speaking of market sales, this week the major stock market indices gave back a small portion of their recent gains. For the week, the Dow lost 0.2%, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq finished 0.3% lower. On a related note …

Credit: Despite the recent recovery in the major stock market indices, you can count market-analyst Jesse Columbo among those who are wary of the recent rebound. He points out that weak trading volume during this rebound is similar to the failed mid-March rally – and that “indicates a lack of conviction and buying power behind it.” That’s why he believes that, “Unless proven otherwise, the evidence indicates that the current rally is merely a dead-cat bounce” consisting of lower highs and lower lows. Just don’t tell that to the perma-bulls …

Credit: By the way, Mr. Columbo also points out that, “Retail investors are often too eager to buy the dip, believing that stocks will keep rising almost indefinitely. Unfortunately, they learn the hard way.”  That’s truer than ever – especially when you consider that most financial advisors today who preach “buy-and-hold” investing never experienced the long and painful decline after the Dot-com bubble burst in 2000, with multiple dead-cat bounces along the way down. We wonder how many of them realize that it took 15 long years for the Nasdaq to recoup all of its losses from the Dot-com Bubble peak.

Credit: Meanwhile, gold topped $3400 again this week. In the meantime, Elon Musk suggested that voiced his support for setting up a livestream of the Fort Knox gold reserves. We think it’s a fantastic idea. Unfortunately, that suggestion was made more than a month ago. Needless to say, everybody is still waiting. We’re guessing that the odds are anybody older than 60 will probably have to watch the livestream from the afterlife.

Credit: For those wondering if gold is undervalued, macro analyst Luke Groman points out that if the market priced gold at $22,000, it would balance China’s massive trade surplus, based upon the 1384 tonnes of gold it imported in 2024. All we can say to that is: Three cheers for balanced trade!

Credit: So … is $22,000 a realistic price for the yellow metal? Well … according to EndGameMacro, “that valuation isn’t market speculation. It’s about using gold as a neutral settlement asset outside the US-centric system; a return to (reality) in a world that’s become addicted to fiat illusion. Gromen’s framing reintroduces gold … as a quiet mechanism for sovereign actors to rebalance trade without using USDs. It’s how nations (can) sidestep the weaponization of the USD without launching a frontal assault.” Yep. As for their bottom line: “This isn’t about gold going to $22,000; it’s about the USD going somewhere worse.” Exactly! Got gold?

By the Numbers

With the summer travel season kicking off in just a few weeks, you may be interested in knowing the ten most popular cities in the US by international travelers based on the total number of foreign visitors in 2024:

8,890,000 New York City

4,365,000 Miami

3,603,000 Los Angeles

3,518,000 Orlando

2,281,000 San Francisco

2,077,000 Las Vegas

1,611,000 Washington, DC

1,413,000 Chicago

1,322,000 Honolulu

1,152,000 Boston

Source: The International Trade Administration

The Question of the Week

Last Week’s Poll Result

Aside from the US, which of these G7 countries have you visited?

• Canada  30%
• United Kingdom  18%
• Germany  16%
• Italy  15%
• France  13%
• Japan  8%

More than 1200 Len Penzo dot Com readers answered last week’s question and it turns out that 3 in 5 of you have been to one of the European G7 nations. Unfortunately, a couple readers sent me an e-mail to inform me that I should have included “None of them” as a choice. D’oh! My bad. That stupid oversight probably explains the lighter response to this week’s poll.

If you have a question you’d like to ask the readers here, send it to me at Len@LenPenzo.com and be sure to put “Question of the Week” in the subject line.

Useless News:  GI Insurance

Airman Jones was assigned to the induction center where he was to advise new recruits about their government benefits, especially their GI insurance.

It wasn’t long before Captain Smith noticed that Airman Jones had almost a 100% record for insurance sales, which had never happened before. Rather than ask about this, the captain stood in the back of the room and listened to Jones’s sales pitch.

During the pitch, Jones explained the basics of the GI Insurance to the new recruits, and then said: “If you have GI Insurance and get killed in battle, then the government has to pay $200,000 to your beneficiaries. However, if you don’t have GI insurance, and you go into battle and get killed, then the government only has to pay a maximum of $6000.”

“With that in mind,” he concluded,”which bunch do you think they’re going to send into battle first?”

(h/t: Cowpoke)

Squirrel Cam

Sometimes I swear that the squirrels know we’re watching them. Look at what happens when one disappointed squirrel shows up to find the nut cart is gone …

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More Useless News

Here are the top — and bottom — five states in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:

1. South Dakota (2.60 pages/visit) (!)
2. Kentucky (2.57) (!)
3. Alaska (2.40)
4. Maine (2.31)
5. Alabama (2.07)

46. Hawaii (1.35)
47. Rhode Island (1.33)
48. New Mexico (1.31)
49. Vermont (1.25)
50. Wyoming (1.00)

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(The Best of) Letters, I Get Letters

Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment — assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it’s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: Len@LenPenzo.com

After reading an article here explaining why people shouldn’t be embarrassed about being frugal, Les Conyers added this:

I’ve chosen to be frugal and I’m proud of it. The Joneses are broke, busted and disgusting!

And yet, Les, so many people insist on keeping up with them anyway.

If you enjoyed this edition of Black Coffee and found it to be informative, please forward it to your friends and family. Thank you! 😀

I’m Len Penzo and I approved this message.

Photo Credit: stock photo