It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …
Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.
Well … another busy week is behind us. So with that in mind, let’s get this party started …
Why is gold the unmentionable, four-letter word of economics? The answer is threefold: A misunderstanding of the role of money; a misreading of history; and finally, visceral revulsion to the notion that a metal can do a better job of guiding monetary policy than a gaggle of finance bureaucrats, central bankers and well-degreed economists.
– Malcolm Forbes
Every society is three meals away from chaos.
– Vladimir Lenin
Credits and Debits
Debit: Did you see this? Food banks across Ohio have seen a surge in demand, with some running at double capacity. Matt Habash, CEO of the Mid-Ohio Food Collective, reports that “Right now we’re running 47% higher in 2023 than we did a year ago, and it scares me to death. I thought it would drop after the pandemic but I don’t think there’s any end in sight.” Then again, you can bet a lot of the people who are lining up for those freebies are driving some very nice cars. So there’s that. Oh … and on a related note:
Debit: If you’re wondering why so many people in Ohio and elsewhere are reaching out to food banks, consider this: While the annual inflation rate slowed to 4.9% in April, government data shows that groceries are now 23% more expensive than before the start of the pandemic – which actually means that groceries are closer to 50% more expensive than before the start of the pandemic. Ironically, everybody already knows this except for the mainstream media’s go-to “top economist” …
Debit: In other news, I see the latest US Census data shows that 42% of Baby Boomers – those between the ages of 60 and 79 – have no retirement savings stored in a 401(k), 403(b), 503(b), or defined-benefit and cash balance plans. The Census data also revealed that just 44% of Gen X – those between 40 and 59 – have no retirement account. The good news is that the Social Security trust fund is in the peak of health. Oh, wait …
Debit: By the way, when it comes to American retirees’ primary source of income in retirement, 40% cite Social Security. The average monthly Social Security check to a retiree is now $1782, or about $21,384 annually. However, between 2016 and 2020, the average American household headed by someone aged 65 and up spent $48,791 per year, or $4066 per month – and that was before skyrocketing inflation. Does anybody else see a problem here? Me too. The good news is, every predicament has a solution. Well … at least for those who are truly determined to find one (Ed. note: the following video does not “freeze” … be patient!):
Credit: Speaking of retirement savings, a new Gallup poll has found that Americans’ perception that gold is the best long-term investment has nearly doubled, rising from 15% in 2022 to 26% today. The increase means gold has overtaken stocks for second position, behind real estate, which is down sharply from last year’s record-high 45% – but on par with the typical proportion selecting real estate between 2016 and 2020. See for yourself:
Debit: Of course, we are witnessing the inevitable financially unpleasant death throes of a fraudulent debt-based monetary system that was unleashed in 1971 after the US dollar’s (USD) anchor to gold was broken. Since then, deficit spending been allowed to run unchecked; as a result, it’s now on fatal “the business end” of an exponential debt curve. Unfortunately, the only way our brobdingnagian federal government can fund itself is by having the Fed act as the buyer of last resort for US Treasuries. As such, gold is now the only remaining way out of America’s current predicament.
Credit: So … how will our current, fraudulent USD-denominated debt-based monetary system finally come to an end? According to macro analyst Chris Powell, there are several possibilities. For example, he says “the system may end when a single country decides to exchange substantial amounts of US dollars and Treasury bonds for more gold — real metal — than is readily available. (Or) it may end when any country with a substantial (US dollar) surplus decides that it’s hedged with enough gold that it can afford the severe devaluation of its dollar-denominated reserves.” I guess one can hope. Until then …
Credit: However, we think Powell’s third alternative is the most likely scenario, if only because it has happened before. As Powell puts it, the current monetary system “ends as part of a plan by major central banks to avert the catastrophic debt-induced deflation that now threatens the world. A plan to inflate the debt away – essentially to default on it – by devaluing the major currencies against gold.” Er … assuming the US still has its gold. Otherwise, things are going to get ugly. Just ask this guy:
Credit: Unfortunately, this scenario will probably not be utilized until the economic situation becomes dire. Why? Because, as macro analyst Jim Rickards notes, “no one in power wants to recognize the role of gold as a monetary asset. They don’t want anyone to even talk about gold, except as a ‘barbarous relic’ that belongs in the dustbin of history.” Uh huh. Until then, we’ll continue to experience the current death spiral of higher deficits, more inflation, and a growing proportion of government revenues being allocated to service a debt load that’s increasing at an exponential pace. And although it doesn’t feel like it, America’s day of reckoning is almost here …
Debit: So why do those in power insist on avoiding any serious discussions about fixing the monetary system? The answer is: Because the solution – devaluing the dollar against gold – will have some unpleasant consequences in the form of reduced purchasing power for greenbacks. That, in turn, can wipe out nest eggs built over decades of hard work; it also will lead to a lower standard of living for those of us who get paid in US dollars. Needless to say, the folks living in Zimbabwe already know this, literally and figuratively:
Credit: The good news is fiscally prudent individuals who protected their wealth with precious metals prior to a currency devaluation will see the purchasing power of their nest egg not only remain unscathed, but potentially end up higher than it was before the crisis unfolded. Such is the nature of wealth insurance.
By the Numbers
Here are the five states whose residents are the closest – and furthest away – from their respective states’ recommended final retirement savings figure:
50 Hawaii (average savings shortfall: 80%)
49 New York (70%)
48 California (63%)
47 Massachusetts (59%)
46 Oregon (57%)
5 New Mexico (28%)
4 Michigan (27%)
3 Georgia (24%)
2 Iowa (20%)
1 Kansas (17%)
Source: DollarGeek.com
Last Week’s Poll Result
Which would you rather find?
- $10 million (59%)
- True love (41%)
More than 1900 Len Penzo dot Com readers answered last week’s poll question and it turns out that almost 3 in 5 would rather find $10 million than true love. Curiously, I’ve featured this poll question four times since 2018 and the percentage of people choosing the cash over true love has been steadily increasing. In 2018 the percentage who preferred the money was just 43%. In 2021 the figure climbed to 51%. And last year, the cash lovers comprised fully 57% of the respondents. Does anybody have any thoughts on this? If you do, let everybody know in the comments below!
If you have a question you’d like to see featured here, please send it to me at Len@LenPenzo.com and be sure to put “Question of the Week” in the subject line.
The Question of the Week
[poll id="475"]
Useless News: Fun at the State Fair
Stumpy and his wife Martha went to the state fair every year.
Every year Stumpy would say, “Martha, I’d like to ride in that there biplane.” And every year Martha would say, “I know, Stumpy, but that biplane ride costs $10, and ten dollars is ten dollars.”
One year, Stumpy and Martha went to the fair and Stumpy said, “Martha, I’m 75 years old. If I don’t get a ride in that biplane this year I may never get another chance.”
Martha replied, “Stumpy, that there biplane ride costs ten dollars, and ten dollars is ten dollars.”
The pilot overheard the old couple and said, “Folks, I’ll make you a deal; I’ll take you both up for a ride. Now … if you can stay quiet for the entire ride and not say one word, then I won’t charge you — but if I hear so much as a peep, then it’s $10.”
Stumpy and Martha agreed to the pilot’s terms and up they went.
The pilot did all kinds of twists and turns. Then he did several barrel rolls and a couple of dives, but not a word was heard. So the pilot did all of his tricks over again.
Still, not a word.
After they landed the pilot turned to Stumpy and said, “By golly! Mister, I did everything I could think of to get you to yell out, but you didn’t make a sound.”
Stumpy replied, “Well, I was gonna say something when Martha fell out, but ten dollars is ten dollars.”
(h/t: Cowpoke)
More Useless News
Here are the top — and bottom — five Canadian provinces and territories in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:
1. Ontario (2.11 pages/visit)
2. Nunavut (2.00)
3. Prince Edward Island (1.80)
4. Alberta (1.78)
5. Nova Scotia (1.67)
9. New Brunswick (1.44)
10. British Columbia (1.41)
11. Newfoundland & Labrador (1.40)
12. Saskatchewan (1.33)
13. Manitoba (1.27)
Whether you happen to enjoy what you’re reading (like those crazy canucks in Ontario, eh) — or not (ahem, you hosers living on the frozen Manitoba tundra) — please don’t forget to:
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(The Best of) Letters, I Get Letters
Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment — assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it’s interesting or not! You can reach me at: Len@LenPenzo.com
After reading my article explaining why waterbeds are for suckers, Trisha let me know that she disagrees:
Best. Sex. Ever. The water is a huge assistance in getting the groove right …
Trust me – you can get the same results by playing a few Barry White tunes.
If you enjoyed this edition of Black Coffee and found it to be informative, please forward it to your friends and family. Thank you! 😀
I’m Len Penzo and I approved this message.
Photo Credit: stock photo
Sara King says
Hi Len,
Thanks for the cuppa!
I think more and more people are choosing the $10 mil over true love because he world around us has become one giant lie where those who break the rules make lots of money never get punished, and honest hard working people get bupkis. So they’re jaded!
Have a great weekend everybody!
Sara
Len Penzo says
Interesting take, Sara. I’m not going to argue with that.
Sam I Am says
I agree that an audit of Fort Knox is in order. Maybe Geraldo Rivera can do a live broadcast from there when they open the vault. We just better hope there’s more to see than when he did Capone’s vault.
Len Penzo says
Sam, if I was a betting man – and sometimes I am – I’d bet there most definitely is gold in Fort Knox (and West Point and the Denver Mint), although at best only half of what is being claimed.
Hubbard says
I chose the $10 million over true love because money may not be able to buy happiness, but I’d rather by unhappy and rich than unhappy and poor.
Len Penzo says
I’m not going to argue with that either.
Declan says
Home owners talk about mortgage loan interest rates and they say high rates are bad. But interest-bearing saving account holders say that higher interest rates are good. So who’s right? Are high interest rates GOOD or BAD?
Len Penzo says
You answered your own question, Declan. High interest rates are GOOD for savers, and BAD for borrowers.
Madison says
Hi, Len! Just checked in to say I want the $10 million over true love too. No. I don’t feel guilty!
Len Penzo says
Nor should you, Madison. Thanks for being honest!
Isabela says
I read that the social security trust fund goes dry in 2032 if they don’t fix things before then. What does that mean for people who depend on social security to live? Would they really let social security get that bad?
Len Penzo says
I’ve read that if the trust fund runs dry, benefits will be automatically reduced by 20%. Remember, Social Security currently collects enough in payroll taxes alone to fund 76% of all benefits.
That being said, I strongly suspect the US will do whatever it has to in order to keep benefits flowing
Richard T. says
True love is overrated if you have ten million bucks in the bank. That’s more than enough for me to pay for a divorce should I marry the wrong woman.
Cowpoke says
Smart man. You sound like you are speaking from experience. 😉
Len Penzo says
I wouldn’t be so sure, Richard!
RD Blakeslee says
Re “True Live vs. “10 million dollars”: These “alternative choice” questions always make me reflect that such imaginary “alternatives” aren’t the last word, really.
In this case, one can reasonably have BOTH a million dollars and true love, or have neither and be happy.
Signed: “Party Pooper”
Tess says
Probably right. But a choice was presented and the results are the results!
Len Penzo says
No need to overthink these questions, Dave! They’re just for entertainment! 🙂
Tess says
Put me in with the true love crowd. Very sad to see so many people going the other way. The love of money is the root of all evil!
Len Penzo says
If it makes you feel any better, I’m with you … given the choice, I’d take the true love too. (Not that I haven’t already found it!)
Jack says
Hi Len,
I know you’ve said in the past that treasuries are safer than CDs. In light of the current happenings with the debt ceiling, are you still of the same opinion? What would happen to the bond market if there really was a default?
Len Penzo says
Yes … and I am walking the walk, so to speak, as I still have a very significant amount of cash in T-bills at the moment.
Of course, I sleep like a baby – not because I am certain the US Gov’t won’t default on its obligations, but because I have wealth insurance that will protect me if I am wrong.
As such, I don’t bother worrying about the fate of my fiat paper assets. (By the way, that’s not to say I am not concerned about what’s coming down the pike. I am very concerned because things are going to be unpleasant for all of us, whether we have insurance or not – it’s just that it will be less unpleasant for those who hold a little physical precious metal in their portfolio.)
Paul S says
My wife is still laughing about Martha falling out of the plane. I must have found true love. Nay…did find it.
Len Penzo says
Glad you enjoyed it, Paul! I did too! 🙂
All thanks go to Cowpoke for sharing that one!
Lauren P. says
Hi Len! Scary that so many live on just Social Security. Personal finance should be a mandatory high school class, inc. budgeting and retirement savings. I remember the ‘3 legged stool’: 1 leg savings, 1 leg pension, 1 leg SS. I guess the GOOD news during these times is the next generation now knows they’re better off depending on themselves than on the Gov’t.
As for your Q of the week, maybe in the 5 yrs. you’ve asked, more folks answering have FOUND true love, so now they’re ready for that $10 mil? 😉
Last, GREAT joke this week! My 92 yr. old dad is still chuckling!
Paul S says
Boy Lauren, not so sure about the next gen being wiser. Saw Smerconish episode on CNN yesterday, until I couldn’t take it anymore. The gist was gen Z wanting to work less, not more, and insisting work life must be ‘fun’ and rewarding. My sister in law hires younger folks for entry level till work at a large Canadian grocery chain. No more, as they often blow shifts for weekend events, don’t answer their phones, and quit on a whim. Some have their parents call in for them…a seriously sick situation getting parents to call in an excuse. I would have gone ape if my parents had phoned an employer.
Anyway, Agree with the retirement stool (pun intended) needing three legs, but must add to that having a home paid for in a reasonable tax area as being part of the equation.
I always enjoyed my many jobs and careers for the most part, but some days are just a grind and some work days are better forgotten. Gardeners know you have to shovel till, and weed, it isn’t just about wandering through the greenhouse. I just wonder where all the expectations about happiness and rights come from? Employers….and Govt….is just trying to survive with reality.
Len Penzo says
Hi, Lauren. Glad you’re dad enjoyed Cowpoke’s joke! 🙂
Your theory on the Q of the Week is certainly plausible – but I was hoping people took the question as an EITHER/OR thing!
As for retirement, If SS goes, that old three-legged stool will become a one-leg cane (personal savings only). Unless you are a gov’t employee pensions are all but history now. And if the USD loses reserve currency status, even those pensions are going to go up in smoke.
Duane says
I chose true love because it is harder to find, have, and keep than $10, $20 or even a $100 million dollars. It’s no wonder the song says money can’t buy me love, because it really can’t if it is true love. P.S. For those who have never ever found true love it is worth way more happiness than any amount of dollars can bring you. I hope you find it someday and realize how valuable it is…
Len Penzo says
Nice comments, Duane!
Although I’ve never had $10 million, I agree with you. I am lucky enough to have true love. It is priceless and I wouldn’t trade it for $10 million.
InhalingCO2 says
$ 10 is $ 10, still laughing.
I chose the $10MM. My honey bee knows we found true love, so she will help me “enjoy it”. Cheers Len.
Len Penzo says
Good for you, CO2! 🙂
How can I argue with that?
Kevin says
Len, maybe it is the same 43% and the actual increase are those who have since (since the 2018 survey) moved on from each other.
Len Penzo says
Maybe you’re right, Kev! I’ll ask the question again next year. Will be interesting to see how it turns out!
Frank says
With 10mil (5 after taxes), I will have many “true loves” to choose from. 🙂
Ce johnson says
Len – You say: “While the annual inflation rate slowed to 4.9% in April, government data shows that groceries are now 23% more expensive than before the start of the pandemic – which actually means that groceries are closer to 50% more expensive than before the start of the pandemic.”
I’m having a hard time with the math on this one…. Why would it be 50% more?
Len Penzo says
Ce … that was a bit of sarcasm there. I was simply trying to point out that the official government inflation figures are usually understated.