The Magic 8 Ball Makes Its Predictions for 2010

Back in August my trusty Magic 8 Ball answered some of your money questions and, for the most part, the forum was a resounding success.

For example, when asked smack-dab in the middle of our economic nadir, “Will the US economy ever turn around?” Eight-Ball correctly predicted that the economy would rebound with a boldly-stated two-word reply:   “Yes – definitely.”

I realize skeptics out there will quibble with the definition of the term “turn around.”

But if we are using the GDP as a yard stick, you can’t deny that after four straight quarters of contraction, the US economy did manage to finally reverse course in the third quarter of 2009.

With the new year upon us, I thought it appropriate to pull my 8-Ball out of the closet again so it could share its predictions for what’s in store for 2010.   For those of you with color monitors, the questions will be highlighted in blue.   Eight-ball’s all-knowing answers will be highlighted in red.

For those of you with black and white or monochrome monitors, please try and use your common sense in hashing out the questions from the answers.   (And break down and get yourself some new hardware, would ya?)

Okay. let’s get started.   Our first question comes from my girl, the Silicon Valley Blogger, over at The Digerati Life, who asks:

Q: Where do you see yourself in your financial endeavors in 2010?

A: You may rely on it.

Okay, I forgot to set the the ground rules.     Eight-ball has a limited vocabulary, and therefore it requires yes/no type questions.

With that said, let’s move on to our second question, which comes from The Smarter Wallet, who has a challenge for you:

Q: Want to call out the next bank or large company failures in 2010?

A: My sources say no.

Hmm.   What we have here, I think, is a failure to communicate.   Wait, The Smarter Wallet has (thankfully) rephrased the question.   Kind of.

Q: Will the bailouts be over? Just a simple question I guess!   (hehe)

A: Don’t count on it.

I hope you’re wrong, Eight Ball, but okay.   Now we’re rolling…

The next question comes from My Life ROI who writes:

Q: Will consumers get more power against cell phone companies (ETFs, locked phones, etc)? I’m hoping for that in 2011!   lol

A: Concentrate and ask again.

You heard the question, Eight Ball.   What do ya say?

A: Without a doubt.

Super.   That should make MLR happy.

Our next set of questions comes from the very honorable Financial Samurai who is dying to find out:

Q: Will Barack Obama have an extra-marital affair a la Tiger Woods?

A: As I see it, yes.

Q: Will taxes go up for everybody, not just “the rich” single folks making over $200,000 per year?

A: It is certain.

Q: Will the Dow break 12,000 this year?

A: My sources say no.

Wow, that is quite a provocative prediction regarding our president from Eight Ball.   Please keep in mind that the ball is completely on its own here and Len Penzo dot Com does not necessarily endorse or agree with all of its predictions…

Our next blogger to step up to the plate is Kevin from Out of Your Rut who wonders:

Q: Will the housing market turn around in 2010?

A: Cannot predict now.

And…

Q: Will control of Congress stay with the Democrats in 2010?

A: As I see it, yes.

Eight Ball, I have to say I am just a bit perplexed at you passing on Kevin’s first question.   That was a real softball, man.   Would you like another opportunity to answer a similar question?

A: Yes.

That’s the spirit, mate!   Lucky for you Jesse at Personal Finance Firewall wants you tell him:

Q: Will the housing market in Florida regain any steam in 2010?

A: My reply is no.

Obviously after thinking about it, the ball is bearish on housing.   I have to agree with you, my friend.   I think any positive news right now with respect to the housing market in the US (and there ain’t a lot) is all due to government bailouts and stimulus.   Jesse had two other questions for you:

Q: Will the United States government provide more economic stimulus cash?

A: Outlook good.

Q: Will the Dow hit 20,000 in 2010?

A: Without a doubt.

Oh, Eight Ball, sometimes you are your own worst enemy.   Not one minute ago you told us all that the Dow wouldn’t break 12,000 in 2010.   Now you say the Dow is going to hit 20,000 this year.   Are you feeling okay?

A: Reply hazy, try again.

Whatever.   Meanwhile, I see the McGyver of the personal finance world, Paul from Fiscal Geek, has a question he wants to ask:

Q: Will U.S. consumers continue to save once the economy is considered “recovered?”

A: Ask again later.

What’s wrong with you Eight Ball?   Do you want me to trade you in for a Ouija board?

A: Yes – definitely.

Don’t get smart with me, Ball.   You know I will.

Lucky for you, both Darwin of Darwin’s Finance and J Money from Budgets are Sexy have asked questions similar to Paul’s.   So you get another opportunity here…

Darwin wants to know:

Q: Will the U.S. revert back to spending in excess in 2010?

A: It is certain.

And J Money asks:

Q: I’d like to know if people will continue saving money in 2010 even IF the economy gets much better?

A: Cannot predict now.

I find it interesting, Eight Ball, that you refuse to go on record with an explicit prediction regarding whether or not Americans will continue to save money in 2010 – although you do predict that consumers will revert to spending in excess – so I guess it could be said you did answer both questions by default.   Of course, the dilemma in 2010 is if consumers save too much, then that will inhibit any recovery from getting some real legs under it.   We’ll see if you’re right.

My buddy Bret from Hope to Prosper has three questions, the last of which I’m really afraid to ask, but c’est la vie:

Q: Will overspending politicians get voted out of office in 2010?

A: Outlook good.

Q: Will blogging decline as a viable medium?

A: Cannot predict now.

Q: Will the Dow top 13,000 this year?

A: Don’t count on it.

Well, I like your first two predictions Eight Ball.   But based upon your last answer, I have to say it’s looking more and more likely though that you didn’t mean what you said earlier when you predicted that the Dow would hit 20,000 this year. Do you want to rescind that original prediction and blame it on you feeling a bit under the weather?

A: My sources say no.

Suit yourself.   I tried to give you an out.

I see the honorable Financial Samurai has another question:

Q: Will Financial Samurai win the lottery and be able to quit his day job in 2010?

A: You may rely on it.

Wow.   Another bold prediction from the ball.   Congratulations, Sam!   I guess you can start drafting your resignation letter in preparation for the big day.

Susan from Brain Dead Simple! Financial Organizing has a very interesting question for you, Eight Ball, based upon this 2008 article from the Wall Street Journal:

Q: Will Russian academic Igor Panarin’s prediction that the United States will fall apart in July 2010, breaking into six pieces, come to pass?

A: Don’t count on it.

I’m with you, Eight Ball.   This guy is proof positive that just because somebody is labeled an “academic” it doesn’t mean they are necessarily smart.   Besides, that would really screw up the summer vacation to Washington, D.C. I have planned for the family.

Hey, I see the pecuniary pepper, Wojo from Fiscal Fizzle, has a couple of questions for you:

Q: Will the Obama administration be successful in implementing more major policies in 2010?

A: Don’t count on it.

Q: Will 2010 be the “year of the personal finance blog?”

A: Yes.

Interesting, Ball. I am sure your last prediction should excite more than a few personal finance bloggers out there.   I know that’s got me jazzed!   So, am I gonna be one of those, ahem, celebrated personal finance bloggers in 2010?

A: Very doubtful.

Uh huh.   You know what?   As soon as I’m done here, Eight Ball, I am SO going to use the Toys R Us gift card I got for Christmas and buy me a Ouija board.   What do you think of that, Smart Guy?

A: Better not tell you now.

That’s what I thought.



Comments

    • 2

      says

      I think you’re right, Sam. Thanks for participating! After you win the lottery, I may hit you up for an interest free loan. ;-)

      (Oh yeah, you can always share this and any of my other articles via Twitter, Facebook, etc by clicking on the “Share This” link at the end of each article.)

    • 4

      says

      @Bret: I am not sure why that would be. Do you expect Dow component earnings to support that kind of level? I don’t, unless the P/Es rise to crazy levels, and I can’t see that kind of exuberance taking hold in light of the current situation we find ourselves in. So, Bret, you are on, kind sir! :-)

  1. 5

    says

    That was such a hilarious post!! I don’t agree with the eight ball on everything (like the Obama affair, I’d like to think he’s not the type; either way I don’t think he’ll have the time with all he’s got on his plate), but it sounds like the eight ball knows its stuff for the most part. Lol!! Makes me want to go out and get one, had my last one at about age 10 or 11. This is a great blog, I’ll keep an eye on it! Happy New Year!! God Bless.

  2. 9

    says

    @Samurai,

    I’m more of a fish taco person than a steak guy and I’m out to lose 20 lbs. this year. But, since you called out the challenge, you can pick the place, up to $20 per plate. Where are you at?

    @Len,

    My reasoning on the stock market is pretty simple and outlined in my 2010 Predictions post. The DOW at 13K is a 23.8% increase, which is very aggressive after the big run-up last year. So, the odds are in your favor. But, I think it will happen. How about the Wahoos in Irvine?

  3. 10

    says

    Awesome predictions for this year. Some of which I sure hope are true, and others really hope not. Another sex scandal in the Whitehouse won’t do anyone any good :)
    thanks for letting me shoot some off to the Magic Eight Ball, though I may need to consult it again regarding my investment property in Florida hah

    • 11

      says

      We’ll reevaluate the Ball’s predictions at the end of the year, Jesse. Thanks for your questions. Eight-ball is here for you when you need it… (And I agree, hopefully no more sex scandals out of the White House. The country needs to focus on more important matters…)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>