{"id":92090,"date":"2026-11-07T01:00:31","date_gmt":"2026-11-07T09:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=92090"},"modified":"2026-11-05T11:23:09","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T19:23:09","slug":"black-coffee-7-nov-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id92090-black-coffee-7-nov-2026.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Spring Forward, Fall Back"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …<\/em><\/p>\n

Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n

Well\u2026 another busy week is behind us. So with that in mind, let\u2019s get this party started!<\/p>\n

The wise man doesn\u2019t ask whether his currency will be reset. He asks only which weekend.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2013 Annonymous<\/strong><\/p>\n

Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? For those of you looking to earn the best interest rate returns on cash you won’t be needing for at least the next 12 months, you should know that the annualized yield for new US Treasury (UST) I-bond purchases made through April is now 5.51%<\/a> \u2013 that’s up from the 4.26% annual return in effect since May. Keep in mind that those UST bonds are arguably safer than bank and corporate money-market funds and\/or CDs; they’re also not subject to gating in a financial crisis. Plus, interest earned on all<\/strong><\/em> USTs is exempt from state and local taxes. Heck… if these rates keep climbing, the US Treasury may abandon its decision to make USTs sexy again…<\/p>\n

\"\"

h\/t: reddit\/wallstreetbets<\/p><\/div>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news… almost 70% of new homes sold in the US were priced below $500,000 in October, with the median US home sale price falling to a new low of $389,600<\/a> \u2013 that’s down 0.1% year-over-year. It also marks the first annual decline in the median home price in more than three years. Despite the decline, we highly suspect that first-time homebuyers are wholly-unimpressed. After all, the median US mortgage payment is still<\/strong><\/em> at the breathtaking figure of $2786, which is the second-highest level on record.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On a related note, with 60% of Americans saying they’re worried about being able to afford healthcare for themselves and their families, employer healthcare plan premiums are projected to increase by 10% in 2027. If you think that’s<\/strong><\/em> bad, Obamacare premiums are going to rise 13%<\/a> next year. Yes; this is the same Obamacare that politicians claimed in 2010 would lead to lower<\/strong><\/em> annual premiums of “up to $2500 annually for the typical family.” So… how did that<\/strong><\/em> work out? Well… Obamacare actually led to even higher<\/strong><\/em> annual premiums, larger yearly rate increases, and longer wait times for everybody. Oh… and it also made super-affordable catastrophic healthcare insurance illegal. But other than that, O-care has been a huge success.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"

Gary Larson – The Far Side<\/p><\/div>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin is warning that we’re in the midst of an historic artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, as many companies are still trying to figure out what, exactly, they’re getting for it. “Corporate America has been very uneven in its ability to extract value<\/a> from its AI models. I think they’re looking at their bills from Anthropic and OpenAI and saying, ‘Okay, we need to think about how to make sure we’re getting productivity out of this.\u2019” That could be a problem because AI has yet to accelerate any measurable economic productivity growth. Uh oh.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"

Scott Adams – Dilbert<\/p><\/div>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, the bubble narrative isn’t being created out of thin air. In fact, although the S&P 500 is just 2%<\/a> off its record high, the median S&P 500 stock is slightly more than 15% below its<\/strong><\/em> all-time high. According to Goldman Sachs, that important breadth measure remains near its narrowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Unfortunately, much of Wall Street continues to be in denial. Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles, offered the following assessment: \u201cThe question is: Is this a systemic issue? Obviously, increased debt issuance is something to observe and continue to watch and be concerned about if it continues to get to levels of excessiveness. But we\u2019re not remotely close<\/a><\/strong><\/em> to that right now\u201d (emphasis ours<\/em>). Heh. Riiiiiight.<\/strong><\/em> Welcome to La La Land, folks.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Apparently, Mr. Rosen overlooked the fact that the federal government just ran its biggest annual budget deficit in five years; it was $2 trillion in fiscal 2026. For those not counting at home, that’s the third largest<\/a> budget deficit in history. If that wasn\u2019t bad enough, the interest expense of $1.3 trillion was the second largest spending category after Social Security. Now… we know what a lot of you may be thinking. Assuming this trend continues \u2013 and it absolutely will<\/strong><\/em> \u2013 what will eventually happen to everybody who is hitching all of their wagons to the “Almighty” US dollar (USD) train? Well… let’s go to the tape:<\/p>\n