{"id":91889,"date":"2026-10-03T01:00:24","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T08:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=91889"},"modified":"2026-10-01T13:34:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T20:34:29","slug":"black-coffee-3-oct-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id91889-black-coffee-3-oct-2026.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Pennies from Heaven"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …<\/em><\/p>\n

Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n

Well\u2026 another busy week is behind us. So with that in mind, let\u2019s get this party started!<\/p>\n

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect income and savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2013 Alan Greenspan<\/strong><\/p>\n

Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? The latest annual Social Security (SS) cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) is projected to be 3.5%<\/a> in 2027. This is the last official projection of the year; if it’s correct, that would boost the average retiree’s monthly check by $68, from $1940 to $2008. Wow. Try not to spend it all in one place, folks.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, we noticed that commercial office loan delinquencies<\/a> are now at 12%; that\u2019s near an all-time high and, remarkably, beyond the levels seen in the aftermath of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Meanwhile, $64 billion of additional commercial office loans come due this year and next, with nearly $40 billion of that pile already delinquent, in default or flagged as potentially troubled. The good news is that interest rates are falling sharply, which will go a long way toward helping distressed debtors. Oh, wait…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> For an example of just how distressed the commercial real estate market is, consider Chicago\u2019s Aon Center: The 83-story skyscraper sold for $712 million in 2015. Today the building is worth nowhere near that amount, with its latest appraisal coming in at just $195 million \u2014that’s a 73% decline<\/a> since 2015. Even worse, the debt matured in July, but the owner couldn\u2019t repay it and asked its lender for more time to sort things out. Not surprisingly, the creditor wasn\u2019t interested. Imagine that. As for the residential market, well… the jury is still out.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of distress, last week’s failure of Nano Bank brings the total number of bank closures<\/a> this year to six; compare that to only two all of last year. The primary culprit this time? The aforementioned commercial property slump that is resulting in too many non-performing loans on the banks\u2019 books. If only Nano had focused on auto loans…<\/p>\n

\"\"
\n\"\" \"\"<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, in 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit the 10,000 milestone; it\u2019s now hovering near 51,000<\/a>, which is a nominal gain of approximately 416%. That sounds fantastic, until you notice the sleight of hand: Consumer prices have risen 103% over the same period, meaning today\u2019s Dow is only 25,500 when measured in 1999 purchasing power \u2013 resulting in a significantly lower real gain of 155% over the same timeframe, and representing a very modest annualized gain of just 5.7%. True; that\u2019s still not bad<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0\u2013 but it\u2019s not going to make anyone filthy rich either.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"

No joke… Here is time-capsule proof of shrinkflation trickery. The candy bar on top was manufactured in 1991 and was recently found in the home of a hoarder by a cleaning crew that was assigned to get the house ready for sale. Now compare that to today’s candy bar on the bottom. (h\/t: @historyinmemes)<\/p><\/div>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, real GDP has grown about 82% and real median household income is only up 19%<\/a>. At the same time, the supply of US dollars (USD) in circulation has exploded 424%. As one analyst puts it, when it comes to the Dow, home values, and our annual incomes, “Celebrating the nominal number without adjusting for the shrinking measuring stick is increasingly like celebrating that your kid grew from four feet to eight feet after you changed the definition of a foot to 6 inches.\u201d Uh huh. Unfortunately, while you can’t fool all of the people all of the time, you can<\/strong><\/em> fool some of the people all of the time…<\/p>\n