{"id":90696,"date":"2026-03-21T01:00:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-21T08:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=90696"},"modified":"2026-04-02T09:21:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T16:21:46","slug":"black-coffee-21-mar-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id90696-black-coffee-21-mar-2026.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: A Crossroads Approacheth"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …<\/em><\/p>\n

Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n

I’ve got another busy weekend ahead of me, so let’s get right to this week’s commentary …<\/p>\n

An honest man is one who knows that he can\u2019t consume more than he has produced.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2014 Ayn Rand<\/strong><\/p>\n

Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? Approximately 4 of every 5 employees now use artificial intelligence (AI) tools at work. However, a fresh analysis of 164,000 workers across 1111 employers covering more than 440 million hours of work activity found that AI isn\u2019t leading to lighter workloads<\/a> \u2013 instead, it’s increasing<\/strong><\/em> their pace and complexity. In fact, the study found 94% of AI users spent more time on email, chat apps and business-management activities while, ironically, the amount of time workers spent on deep concentration activities needed for analysis, strategy or complex problem solving fell 9%. In other words: Solving perplexing tasks like this…<\/p>\n

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Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, Honda Motor corporation announced that it’s fiscal year \u2013 which ends on 31 March \u2013 will finish almost $16 billion in the red. That will be Honda\u2019s first annual loss<\/a> since it began since its shares were first listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 1957. As for the reason: Honda\u2019s strategic manufacturing shift towards electrification has failed to translate to any appreciable sales. Then again, never say never\u2026<\/p>\n

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Debit:<\/strong><\/span> On a related note, while most Americans have noticed the rising cost of gasoline, jet fuel prices have been flying under the radar \u2013 but that may be changing<\/a> with global average jet fuel price rising 58% from the week before. The current price of jet fuel is now 80% higher than the average cost of jet fuel in 2025. As a result, we should expect higher airfares in the coming days and weeks as well. Oh… and on a related note\u2026<\/p>\n

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Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Stop us if you\u2019ve heard this before: According to macro analyst Jesse Columbo, according to “the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, the US stock market is currently more overvalued<\/a> than it was in 1929, just before the historic crash that led to the Great Depression. In addition, it is approaching levels last seen during the Dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.\u201d And, apparently, it\u2019s not just stock that are over-valued \u2013 at least according to some<\/strong><\/em> indicators.<\/p>\n

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h\/t: Jesse Columbo substack<\/p><\/div>\n

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Debit:<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0 By the way, Columbo also discussed another indicator, the stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio, where he points out that “Warren Buffett once called this his favorite indicator<\/a>. He also warned that when this ratio rises above 200, investors are ‘playing with fire.'” Uh huh. Today, the ratio is at an all-time high of 216; the historic average is 87. And now you know why Mr. Buffett currently holds the majority of his position in cash, rather than the stock market. Just remember that US dollars (USD) aren’t money; they’re debt. An IOU. In fact, you can think of USDs as a zero-duration US Treasury (UST) bond that pays 0% interest.<\/p>\n

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h\/t: Jesse Columbo substack<\/p><\/div>\n

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Gary Larson – The Far Side<\/p><\/div>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, macro analyst Daniel Oliver warned this week that, “the private credit market is sliding towards a full collapse<\/a>: first Blue Owl, BlackRock, Blackstone. And now Cliffwater and Morgan Stanley are facing a credit run; and if private credit is worthless, so is private equity. The Fed will print money, but it can’t bail out these credit monstrosities: Everyone needs a house and a car, so the USDs printed in previous panics went to the locus of those crises. But nobody needs Class C office space anymore, so the printing will (only) exacerbate inflation. And war\u2026 will require even more debt.\u201d Uh huh. Behold, Exhibits A B and C:<\/p>\n

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Source: Myrmikan Research<\/p><\/div>\n

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Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Not surprisingly, there is a global shift<\/a> underway from a fiat-based monetary order based on debt-backed currencies. For many decades, USTs have been the world’s go-to safe haven – the asset you held when there were no other satisfying options. However, their status is rapidly eroding now in favor of commodities \u2013 and eventually an honest monetary system based on real money. Hey… we can all drink to the that!<\/p>\n