{"id":86483,"date":"2025-03-01T01:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-03-01T09:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=86483"},"modified":"2025-03-04T08:42:47","modified_gmt":"2025-03-04T16:42:47","slug":"black-coffee-1-mar-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id86483-black-coffee-1-mar-2025.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Seeing Is Believing"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …<\/em><\/p>\n

Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n

I’ve got another busy weekend ahead of me, so let’s get right to this week’s commentary …<\/p>\n

Trust, but verify.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

– Ronald Reagan<\/strong><\/p>\n

The lady across the hall tried to rob a department store – with a pricing gun. She said, ‘Give me all of the money in the vault, or I’m marking down everything in the store.’<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

– Steven Wright<\/strong><\/p>\n

Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? Existing home sales data for January revealed that a resurgence in mortgage rates is finally starting to take its toll<\/a>, as evidenced by a 4.9% decline month-over-month (MoM). That’s the biggest drop in 26 months. Now for the punchline: Prices are still<\/strong><\/em> climbing, despite the decline in sales. In fact, the housing market is so broken that the median debt-to-income (DTI) ratio to buy the median home is now a jaw-dropping 47%. With that in mind, it shouldn\u2019t be surprising that only 24% of all US home sales in 2024 went to first-time home buyers – that’s the lowest share in history.<\/p>\n

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Debit:<\/strong><\/span> On a related note, US retail sales fell 0.9%<\/a> last month. That<\/strong><\/em> marks the steepest monthly decline in 12 months. For those not counting at home, the downturn was spread across the sales spectrum, affecting everything from sporting goods to auto sales. As a result, economists are saying that this yet another sign that stagflation is taking root, which could delay Fed rate cuts. Let’s just hope it doesn’t delay any of those tax cuts that are supposedly in the pipeline …<\/p>\n

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h\/t: @Kyle_C137<\/p><\/div>\n

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Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Needless to say, the retail sales decline has also hit eggs, which are in short supply due to bird flu. As a result, egg prices surged 15%<\/a> in January – that was the largest increase since June 2015. A chicken breeder in Arkansas says she’s fielding 100 messages per day – double the usual number – from people wanting to buy her hens. And the owner of a company that rents chickens along with all of the necessary supplies – from feed to coops – is reporting that his inquiries are up 500%. On a side note … even if you’re not<\/strong><\/em> interested in buying a chicken coop, remember: You can always put four doors on it – then it becomes a chicken sedan.<\/p>\n

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Debit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, if you’re looking for stagflation’s main culprit, you can blame America’s addiction to the credit card; the National Debt just keeps on climbing. It’s now more than $36 trillion – and rising. Rapidly<\/a>. Oh … and there’s nothing<\/strong><\/em> the Department of Government Efficiency (sic) – a.k.a. “DOGE” – can do about it. It’s nothing personal, Mr. Musk. It’s just math.<\/p>\n