{"id":77708,"date":"2023-03-18T01:15:48","date_gmt":"2023-03-18T08:15:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=77708"},"modified":"2023-03-22T19:52:26","modified_gmt":"2023-03-23T02:52:26","slug":"black-coffee-18-mar-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id77708-black-coffee-18-mar-2023.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Pushing the Panic Button"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-51224\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg 404w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags-300x287.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe<\/em> &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>Well &#8230; another busy week is behind us. So with that in mind, let&#8217;s get this party started &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div><em>The first duty of a man is to think for himself.<\/em><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8211; Jose Marti<\/strong><\/div>\n<div>\n<blockquote><p><em>The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8211; Alan Blinder, former Vice Chair of the Fed<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><em>He who panics first, panics best.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8211; Anonymous<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? It&#8217;s no secret that America has rested on its laurels ever since it broke the US dollar&#8217;s anchor to gold in 1971. In fact, the US has been eating its seed corn ever since &#8211; and it has grown soft in the process. James Howard Kunstler warned this week that&#8217;s because Americans have been living in an economic fantasy world where &#8220;we discontinued the rough and messy business of making stuff, and thereby generating real wealth. But now <a href=\"https:\/\/kunstler.com\/clusterfuck-nation\/money-troubles\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a klaxon blares<\/a>, signaling the end of dreamtime. And the nation wakes up in a ramshackle house with the floor giving way under the bed.&#8221; If you think that sounds ominous, that&#8217;s because it <em><strong>is<\/strong><\/em>. And speaking of dreamtime &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77749\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-6-1-1024x705.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-6-1-1024x705.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-6-1-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-6-1-768x528.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-6-1-348x240.png 348w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-6-1.png 1218w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_77715\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-77715\" class=\"wp-image-77715\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/MARKET-FAILURES.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/MARKET-FAILURES.png 830w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/MARKET-FAILURES-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/MARKET-FAILURES-768x487.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-77715\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(h\/t: @CalebFranzen)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Now, if you were lulled into believing that the Fed somehow managed to &#8220;fix&#8221; the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, then you probably also believe that the last decade-plus of easy money via 0% interest rates was not only good economic policy, but that we can also borrow ourselves into prosperity. The truth is, the <em><strong>only<\/strong><\/em> thing that conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air has done is delay our inevitable day of reckoning. So here we are: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxbusiness.com\/markets\/billionaire-bill-ackman-svb-collapse-government-has-48-hours-fix-irreversible-mistake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cracks in the dam are appearing<\/a> yet again &#8211; and nowhere more so than in the banking system.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Bzz8BvaQL9Q?controls=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> For those who haven&#8217;t noticed any cracks in the system, the FDIC took over control of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) last Friday. In case you&#8217;re wondering, SVB is the first FDIC-insured bank to fail since October 2020, when the FDIC took over Almena State Bank. However, that&#8217;s no comfort to <a href=\"https:\/\/investorplace.com\/2023\/03\/so-you-hold-sivb-stock-now-what\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the muppet investors who are stuck holding shares<\/a> of that soon-to-be-bankrupt institution. (Not to be confused with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/03\/14\/svb-execs-sold-84-million-of-the-banks-stock-over-the-past-2-years.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the bank&#8217;s CEO<\/a> who sold $3.6 million worth of shares several days before SVB disclosed the large loss that triggered its stock slide and collapse.)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77722\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-12-1024x690.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"364\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-12-1024x690.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-12-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-12-768x518.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-12.png 1136w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77710\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/KERMIT-GUTTER-1024x868.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"458\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/KERMIT-GUTTER-1024x868.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/KERMIT-GUTTER-300x254.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/KERMIT-GUTTER-768x651.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/KERMIT-GUTTER.png 1258w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77776\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/tweet-0-4-686x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"806\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/tweet-0-4-686x1024.png 686w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/tweet-0-4-201x300.png 201w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/tweet-0-4-768x1146.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/tweet-0-4-1029x1536.png 1029w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/tweet-0-4.png 1222w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> As for SVB&#8217;s depositors, it turns out that, based on its $173 billion of customer deposits, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfo.com\/banking-capital-markets\/2023\/03\/silicon-valley-bank-svb-fdic-collapse-interest-rate-fixed-assets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">$152 billion were uninsured<\/a> because they exceeded the $250,000 FDIC insurance threshold. Which is to be expected when a bank has a lot of wealthy clients. On the other hand, only $4.8 billion in deposits were fully insured. Even so, this week the US government decided to bail-out SVB&#8217;s uninsured depositors. And while we&#8217;re being told the taxpayers are not on the hook for bailing out these uninsured millionaires, the bottom line is that, ultimately, the resulting inflation will ensure <em><strong>everyone<\/strong><\/em> will pay anyway via lost purchasing power.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77723\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-3-2-911x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"607\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-3-2-911x1024.png 911w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-3-2-267x300.png 267w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-3-2-768x864.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-3-2.png 1220w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77745\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-17-1024x675.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"356\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-17-1024x675.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-17-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-17-768x506.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-17.png 1204w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Despite the large number of SVB depositors who failed to get their cash out in time, there <em><strong>were<\/strong><\/em> customers who managed to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sovereignman.com\/trends\/if-svb-is-insolvent-so-is-everyone-else-146244\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pull out $42 billion<\/a> over a ten hour period the day before the bank collapsed. For those not counting at home, that&#8217;s $4.2 billion an hour, or more than $1 million for every second that the bank was open on that fateful Thursday &#8211; which just goes to show that cell phone technology has not only made banking more efficient, it has also made bank runs more efficient too.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77742\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-15-1024x684.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"361\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-15-1024x684.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-15-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-15-768x513.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-15.png 1114w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_77747\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-77747\" class=\"wp-image-77747\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-18-1024x713.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"376\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-18-1024x713.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-18-300x209.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-18-768x535.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-18.png 1204w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-77747\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(h\/t: mediacloud.theweek.com)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> As <em>Zero Hedge<\/em> points out, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/expect-mass-layoffs-real-world-impact-svbs-failure\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The contagion<\/a> of shuttering the 18th largest US bank will be widespread (because) SVB is the second largest bank failure in US history after Washington Mutual.&#8221; Signature Bank (SBNY) can sadly attest to that; it became <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-03-14\/why-did-signature-bank-fail-inside-the-old-school-new-york-bank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the third largest bank failure<\/a> of all time after it drowned in a sea of red ink just a few days later. Needless to say, SBNY stock investors are now screwed too, as they&#8217;re stuck holding worthless shares that will never be traded again. The good news is that SBNY&#8217;s uninsured millionaire depositors have been bailed out and made whole &#8211; just like the well-to-do who banked at SVB. So there&#8217;s that.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77732 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"532\" height=\"472\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-13.png 532w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-13-300x266.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 532px) 100vw, 532px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_77712\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-77712\" class=\"wp-image-77712\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/US-BANK-FAIL-SIZE-HISTORY.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"501\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/US-BANK-FAIL-SIZE-HISTORY.png 968w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/US-BANK-FAIL-SIZE-HISTORY-300x278.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/US-BANK-FAIL-SIZE-HISTORY-768x712.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-77712\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(h\/t: @jameshenryand)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77721\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-2-2-1024x767.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-2-2-1024x767.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-2-2-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-2-2-768x575.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-2-2.png 1220w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> In fact, Garry Tan, the CEO of YCombinator calls the failure of SVB &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/garrytan\/status\/1634260576431136768\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">an extinction level event<\/a> for startups that will set startups and innovation back by 10 years or more.\u201d He also is warning that &#8220;30% of his companies exposed through SVB can&#8217;t make payroll in the next 30 days.&#8221; But I&#8217;m sure that&#8217;s just the hysterical ranting of disgruntled customer. So please try to keep a level head. M&#8217;kay?<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/zDAmPIq29ro?controls=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> It&#8217;s hard not to think of SVB as being equivalent to the failure of Bear Sterns several months before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 officially kicked off. But unlike Lehman or Bear Stearns, the recent disasters at SVB, SBNY and Silvergate <em><strong>weren&#8217;t<\/strong><\/em> the result of concentrated and levered bets and loans to poor credit risks. Instead, they were the result of <a href=\"https:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/bank-runs-set-to-accelerate-as-fear-and-panic-spreads\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a good ol&#8217; fashioned bank run<\/a> by panicked depositors. The big question is: After SVB and SBNY, what will be the next dominos to fall? What&#8217;s that? Did I hear somebody say <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/03\/16\/credit-suisse-to-borrow-up-to-about-54-billion-from-swiss-national-bank.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Credit Suisse<\/a>? Or maybe First Republic?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77727\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-4-2-1024x970.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-4-2-1024x970.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-4-2-300x284.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-4-2-768x728.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-4-2.png 1224w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_77728\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-77728\" class=\"wp-image-77728\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/INDIANA.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"469\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/INDIANA.png 986w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/INDIANA-300x260.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/INDIANA-768x667.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-77728\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(h\/t: @NihilarianZH)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77735\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-5-2-917x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"603\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-5-2-917x1024.png 917w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-5-2-269x300.png 269w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-5-2-768x857.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-5-2.png 1222w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Of course, SVB went under because it was forced to sell long term Treasuries they bought when interest rates were near zero &#8211; that results in big losses when interest rates are hundreds of basis points higher. Now for the punchline: As financial analyst Wolf Richter notes, investors doing the math can see that, &#8220;Other banks are sitting on potentially <a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2023\/03\/09\/bank-stocks-got-wacked-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place-as-banks-run-out-the-free-money\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the same problem<\/a> (as SVB): If they&#8217;re forced to sell bonds now, they&#8217;re going to lose a lot of money, even on perfectly good Treasury securities, because yields have risen and therefore bond prices have fallen.&#8221; Now for the <em><strong>really<\/strong><\/em> bad news: This doesn&#8217;t even begin to address the banks&#8217; derivative exposure.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_77736\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-77736\" class=\"wp-image-77736\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-14-1024x564.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"297\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-14-1024x564.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-14-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-14-768x423.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-14.png 1224w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-77736\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Net unrealized losses for Bank of America (red), JP Morgan Chase (blue), Citi (orange), and Wells Fargo (green). Nothing to see here.<\/p><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77713\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-1-2-955x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"579\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-1-2-955x1024.png 955w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-1-2-280x300.png 280w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-1-2-768x823.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-1-2.png 1220w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> So, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theburningplatform.com\/2023\/03\/15\/is-the-u-s-banking-system-safe-15-years-later\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">banks are in a real pickle<\/a> &#8211; again &#8211; courtesy of suddenly &#8220;toxic&#8221; Treasury notes and bonds and a historic contraction in the currency supply. Richter goes on to warn that &#8220;If banks don&#8217;t offer competitive interest rates, sooner or later depositors will figure it out and switch from savings accounts offering 0.2% or (less), to CDs and T-bills that offer over 5%, and to money market funds that offer between 4.5% and 5%. But that would squeeze (bank) profit margins &#8211; so they don&#8217;t.&#8221; For now. Although at some point those banks will have to cry &#8220;uncle!&#8221; &#8211; or they&#8217;ll suffer the same fate as SVB. And SBNY. And &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77714\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-0-3-790x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"700\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-0-3-790x1024.png 790w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-0-3-231x300.png 231w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-0-3-768x996.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-0-3-1185x1536.png 1185w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-0-3.png 1220w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77743\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-16.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"642\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-16.png 776w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-16-252x300.png 252w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-16-768x912.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, in case you&#8217;re wondering what kind of health the Federal Reserve Bank is in &#8211; and why wouldn&#8217;t you, since it is the lender of last resort? &#8211; you should probably sit down. That&#8217;s because the Fed&#8217;s net worth is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/03\/13\/bill-ackman-says-us-did-right-thing-in-protecting-svb-depositors.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">negative $1.1 trillion<\/a>. And why is that? Well &#8230; because the Fed is suffering from the exact same Treasury funding and investing mismatch issue that took down SVB and SBNY. So, although they&#8217;d never admit it, the only way for the Fed to backstop the system and keep any future bank implosions from destroying the US financial system is to print even <em><strong>more<\/strong><\/em> fiat currency. Imagine that.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77760\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-7-2-1024x514.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"271\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-7-2-1024x514.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-7-2-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-7-2-768x385.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-7-2.png 1220w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_77759\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-77759\" class=\"wp-image-77759\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-19.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"361\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-19.png 988w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-19-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Untitled-19-768x513.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-77759\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(h\/t: @goldseek)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> The other day I saw the following remark posted on a forum comment board: &#8220;We&#8217;re well past the end of the beginning. We&#8217;re now witnessing the beginning of the end. Just as the failures of Silvergate, Silicon Valley and Signature banks came as a surprise, the irreversible collapse of the markets will arrive without notice and shock everyone.&#8221; Well \u2026 at least everyone who doesn&#8217;t <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id18329-economic-collapse-101-ten-ways-to-prepare-for-the-unknown-2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">read Black Coffee<\/a> every week.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-77771\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-8-2-954x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"580\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-8-2-954x1024.png 954w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-8-2-279x300.png 279w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-8-2-768x825.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Tweet-8-2.png 1222w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How concerned are you about losing a portion of your deposits in a banking crisis?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Not concerned at all (36%)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Slightly concerned (31%)<\/li>\n<li>Significantly concerned (20%)<\/li>\n<li>Extremely concerned (13%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1900 Len Penzo dot Com readers answered last week&#8217;s poll question and it turns out that 2 in 3 say, at best, they&#8217;re slightly concerned about losing some or all of their deposits in a banking crisis. Behold the power of federal deposit insurance. \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n<p>If <em><strong>you<\/strong><\/em> have a question you&#8217;d like to see featured here, please send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"466\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bear markets happen more often than many realize, and most people will have to navigate multiple severe downturns during their investing years. Here is the frequency of various bear market declines in the S&amp;P 500 since 1928:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>4.1<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Average number of years between market declines of 20%.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>6.3<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Average number of years between market declines of 25%.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>8.6<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Average number of years between market declines of 30%.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>14<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Average number of years between market declines of 40%.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>19<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Average number of years between market declines of 50%.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>95<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Average number of years between market declines of 80%.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: @PeterMallouk<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Doctor&#8217;s Orders<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>An old man went to the doctor to get a physical.<\/p>\n<p>A few days later, the doctor saw him walking down the street with a gorgeous young woman on his arm.<\/p>\n<p>A couple of days later, the doctor spoke to him and said, &#8220;You&#8217;re really doing great, aren&#8217;t you?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>He replied, &#8220;I&#8217;m just doing what you said, Doc: &#8216;Get a hot mamma and be cheerful!'&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The doctor said, &#8220;I didn&#8217;t say that. I said, &#8216;You&#8217;ve got a heart murmur; be careful.'&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: RD Blakeslee)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>More Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five Canadian provinces and territories in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. Quebec (2.33 pages\/visit)<br \/>\n2. Alberta (2.12)<br \/>\n3. Prince Edward Island (1.95)<br \/>\n4. Nunavut (1.79)<br \/>\n5. Saskatchewan (1.72)<\/p>\n<p>9. Manitoba (1.50)<br \/>\n10. British Columbia (1.47)<br \/>\n11. Newfoundland &amp; Labrador (1.33)<br \/>\n12. Northwest Territories (1.25)<br \/>\n13. Yukon (1.00)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like those crazy French Canadiens in Quebec, eh) &#8212; or not (ahem, you hosers living on the frozen Yukon tundra) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Subscribe to my weekly <strong>Len Penzo dot Com Newsletter!<\/strong> (It&#8217;s easy! See the big green box in the sidebar at the top of the page.)<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you follow me on my new favorite quick-chat site, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/gab.com\/LenPenzo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gab<\/a><\/strong>! Of course, you can always <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>. Just be careful what you say there.<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. <em><strong>Please support this website by visiting my sponsors&#8217; ads!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Thank you so much!!!! &#x1f60a;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After reading my article explaining why <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id5960-100-words-on-why-the-most-valuable-monopoly-property-isnt-boardwalk-2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Boardwalk is not the most valuable property in Monopoly<\/a>, <strong>Rick<\/strong> asked this question:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Have you ever played Monopoly where a fight at the end hasn&#8217;t happened?<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Wait &#8230; you mean Monopoly actually has an end?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>If you enjoyed this edition of Black Coffee and found it to be informative, please forward it to your friends and family. Thank you!<\/strong> &#x1f600;<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: stock photo<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. Well &#8230; another busy week is behind us. So with that in mind, let&#8217;s get this party started [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51224,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-77708","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Pushing the Panic Button<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id77708-black-coffee-18-mar-2023.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Pushing the Panic Button\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. Well &#8230; another busy week is behind us. 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Well &#8230; another busy week is behind us. 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