{"id":76892,"date":"2023-01-28T01:15:48","date_gmt":"2023-01-28T09:15:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=76892"},"modified":"2023-01-30T16:19:32","modified_gmt":"2023-01-31T00:19:32","slug":"black-coffee-28-jan-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id76892-black-coffee-28-jan-2023.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Welcome to the Fun House"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-51224 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"251\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg 404w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags-300x287.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 251px) 100vw, 251px\" \/><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>I hope everybody had a wonderful week. And with that, let&#8217;s get right to this week&#8217;s commentary, shall we?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Numb the dark and you numb the light.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8211; Brene Brown<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Every window on Alcatraz has a view of San Francisco.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8211; Susanna Kaysen<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>You can ignore reality, but you can&#8217;t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8211; Ayn Rand<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? American cities are crumbling under the weight of high taxes, a growing homeless population &#8211; and the inevitable crime that comes with it. Nowhere is this becoming more evident than downtown Seattle, where both Amazon and Nike have recently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/nikes-exit-shows-just-how-far-downtown-seattle-is-from-a-comeback\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">abandoned that once-beautiful city<\/a>, as well as a major 16-screen cinema and lots of smaller businesses. In fact, Seattle&#8217;s retail vacancy rate is currently 13.5%; that&#8217;s up from 2% just four years ago. Imagine that.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76929\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7-4-1024x172.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"91\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7-4-1024x172.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7-4-300x50.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7-4-768x129.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7-4.png 1216w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76930\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7A-2-1024x441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7A-2-1024x441.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7A-2-300x129.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7A-2-768x331.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-7A-2.png 1216w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76941\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-20-1021x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"542\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-20-1021x1024.png 1021w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-20-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-20-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-20-768x770.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-20.png 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, it turns out that used car prices, which nearly doubled during the pandemic, actually <em><strong>fell<\/strong><\/em> for most of 2022. Even so, used car prices are still much higher than their pre-pandemic lows. And there are signs prices are set to fall even further as lax pandemic-era auto loan lending standards are coming back to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2023\/01\/02\/auto-loan-delinquencies-trouble-ally-financial\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bite lenders<\/a>. <em><strong>That&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> because the percentage of car loans that are at least 60 days delinquent is at its highest point in more than a decade &#8211; which may explain why carpools like <em><strong>this<\/strong><\/em> are now growing in popularity &#8230; <em>(h\/t: The Honeybee)\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/TRfStRoSpwA?controls=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, December saw US existing home sales fall for the 11th straight month, leading to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/realestate\/existing-home-sales-fell-for-the-11th-consecutive-month-in-december-hitting-the-slowest-pace-since-november-2010\/ar-AA16z2KL\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a record 34% decline<\/a> year-over-year. As a point of comparison, that&#8217;s even worse than the biggest monthly sales decline experienced during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. The December pullback also makes this the longest monthly streak of sales declines in history. As a result, the median US home for sale last month remained on the market for <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/MEDDAYONMARUS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">67 days<\/a>, up from 56 days in November 2022, and 31 days last May.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76895\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Home-Sales-Falling-1024x611.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"322\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Home-Sales-Falling-1024x611.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Home-Sales-Falling-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Home-Sales-Falling-768x458.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Home-Sales-Falling-1536x916.png 1536w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Home-Sales-Falling.png 1968w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76931\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-8-2-870x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"636\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-8-2-870x1024.png 870w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-8-2-255x300.png 255w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-8-2-768x904.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-8-2.png 1216w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Despite falling American home sales, the median price is 2.3% higher from a year earlier to $366,900, reflecting higher prices in all regions of the US. On the bright side for new homebuyers, the median price has been falling on a monthly basis <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/personal-finance\/another-difficult-month-buyers-us-existing-home-sales-suffer-biggest-annual-drop\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">since last July<\/a>. Unfortunately, that&#8217;s been only a moral victory up to this point.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76896\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/home-price-median-1024x572.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/home-price-median-1024x572.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/home-price-median-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/home-price-median-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/home-price-median-1536x858.png 1536w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/home-price-median.png 1730w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76897\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-0-3-1024x689.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"363\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-0-3-1024x689.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-0-3-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-0-3-768x517.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-0-3.png 1216w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_76935\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-76935\" class=\"wp-image-76935\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-16-1024x1014.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"535\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-16-1024x1014.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-16-300x297.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-16-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-16-768x761.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-16.png 1030w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-76935\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(h\/t: r\/WallStreetSilver u\/SilverSurfer)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Of course, what&#8217;s good for homebuyers isn&#8217;t so great for home <em><strong>builders<\/strong><\/em>. In fact, KB Home &#8211; one of the nation&#8217;s largest home builders &#8211; reported <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2023\/01\/12\/fed-housing-market-reset-homebuilder-cancellation-rate-spike-kb-home\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a 68% cancellation rate<\/a> in the fourth quarter of 2022. In case you&#8217;re wondering, on a historic basis, a 68% cancellation rate is off the charts. Yes, even higher than during the darkest days of the 2008-era crash when the average builder cancellation rate topped out at 47%.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76898\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-1-3-689x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"803\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-1-3-689x1024.png 689w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-1-3-202x300.png 202w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-1-3-768x1142.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-1-3-1033x1536.png 1033w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-1-3.png 1216w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, in 2008 the Fed started buying private-sector mortgage-backed securities (MBSs); $1.7 trillion of them, to be exact. And why would the central bank ever decide to meddle in such an important market? Well &#8230; financial commentator Ryan McMaken points out that the Fed did it in order &#8220;to <a href=\"https:\/\/mises.org\/wire\/dont-call-it-capitalism-feds-8-trillion-hoard-financial-assets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prop up banks and other firms<\/a> that had bet on the lie that &#8216;home prices always go up.'&#8221; At least they do in artificially manipulated markets, as the Fed action ultimately proved.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76938\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-9-2-920x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"601\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-9-2-920x1024.png 920w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-9-2-269x300.png 269w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-9-2-768x855.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-9-2.png 1216w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76937\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-18.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"591\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-18.png 896w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-18-274x300.png 274w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-18-768x840.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Unfortunately, once the Fed started directly meddling in the housing market, it couldn&#8217;t stop. As McMaken points out, &#8220;The Fed attempted to sell its portfolio in 2019, but by then the market was already so addicted to Fed money that the economy slowed and a liquidity crisis ensued. So the US government began a spending spree, and the Fed hoarded even larger amounts of assets, bringing the MBS portfolio to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">$2.7 trillion<\/a>.&#8221; For those of you counting at home, this currently represents almost 25% of all US household mortgage debt. Now \u2026 where do you think US home prices would be today if this percentage was zero?<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_76899\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-76899\" class=\"wp-image-76899\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/MBS-Owned-by-FED-1024x578.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"305\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/MBS-Owned-by-FED-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/MBS-Owned-by-FED-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/MBS-Owned-by-FED-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/MBS-Owned-by-FED-1536x867.png 1536w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/MBS-Owned-by-FED-2048x1156.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-76899\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(Source: Mises Institute)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76924\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-5-3-1024x598.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-5-3-1024x598.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-5-3-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-5-3-768x448.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-5-3.png 1216w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Last summer macro analyst Luke Gromen of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/LukeGromenFFTTLLC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FFFT<\/a> wrote, &#8220;the US government&#8217;s debt to GDP ratio is 120%. Since 1991, all 18 governments with deficits exceeding 11% of GDP and debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 110% defaulted within two years.&#8221; With that in mind, the US Federal deficit as a percentage of GDP climbed to 11.9% in October 2022. Oh, I know &#8230; &#8220;we owe the debt to ourselves!&#8221; &#8211; as if that makes the debt irrelevant. The thing is: <em><strong>&#8220;Ourselves&#8221;<\/strong><\/em> consists of <em><strong>borrowers<\/strong><\/em> and <em><strong>lenders<\/strong><\/em>, which means if the US defaults, &#8220;ourselves&#8221; will be made up of <em><strong>winners<\/strong><\/em> and <em><strong>losers<\/strong><\/em>, as this dramatic recreation illustrates: <em>(h\/t: <a href=\"https:\/\/the-moneychanger.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Franklin Sanders<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7GSXbgfKFWg?controls=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On a related note, last week famed economist Kenneth Rogoff warned that &#8220;We were very fortunate that we didn&#8217;t have a global systemic event in 2022, and we can <a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/business\/2023\/01\/16\/central-banks-risk-setting-financial-earthquake-constant-rate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">count our blessings<\/a> for that, but rates are still going higher and the risk keeps rising.&#8221; He also says global debt has risen to massive levels since the pandemic and now the risk of over-tightening by central banks &#8220;is nothing less than catastrophic.&#8221; As a result, &#8220;the debt bubble can pop anywhere&#8221; and at any time. Now where have we heard <em><strong>that<\/strong><\/em> before? I&#8217;d offer Mr. Rogoff one of my tin foil hats, but he <em><strong>is<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Kenneth_Rogoff\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a chess grandmaster<\/a>, so the man probably knows what he&#8217;s talking about.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76926\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-6-3-1024x888.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"468\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-6-3-1024x888.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-6-3-300x260.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-6-3-768x666.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-6-3.png 1216w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76933\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-15-1024x664.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-15-1024x664.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-15-300x194.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-15-768x498.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-15.png 1034w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76923\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-14-1024x572.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"302\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-14-1024x572.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-14-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-14-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-14.png 1482w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Then again, none of these dire economic warnings should come as a surprise to anybody. After all, asset manager Egon VonGreyerz noted this week that &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/greyerz-what-the-world-is-facing-is-nothing-less-than-catastrophic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the final phase of empires<\/a> always includes excessive deficits, inflation, a collapsing currency, decadence and war &#8211; and the US, EU and Japan have now reached the stage when no one wants their debt. But when you live on borrowed time and borrowed money, it becomes increasingly difficult to keep up appearances.&#8221; He can say that again. Oh, and speaking of collapsing currency &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76900\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-2-4-929x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"595\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-2-4-929x1024.png 929w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-2-4-272x300.png 272w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-2-4-768x847.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-2-4.png 1226w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76939\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-19-1024x728.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-19-1024x728.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-19-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-19-768x546.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-19.png 1198w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Keep in mind that before our fraudulent debt-based monetary system finally kicks the bucket, many Western nations &#8211; most likely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/global-markets-view-europe-2023-01-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">led by Japan<\/a> &#8211; will hold nearly 100% of their own bonds because the usual cadre of willing foreign buyers are gone now. And who can blame them? After all, the writing is on the wall. Anyway &#8230; at that point, it will finally become apparent to the slow learners that precious metals are the only true safe haven. That&#8217;s when the gold price will skyrocket &#8211; while bond rates approach infinity, making them all but worthless. And when a nation&#8217;s <em><strong>bonds<\/strong><\/em> become worthless, its currency becomes worthless too. In the meantime &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76908\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-3-3-1024x729.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"385\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-3-3-1024x729.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-3-3-300x214.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-3-3-768x547.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/tweet-3-3.png 1210w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_76936\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-76936\" class=\"wp-image-76936\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-17.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"535\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-17.png 838w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-17-300x297.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-17-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-17-768x761.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-76936\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(h\/t: WallStreetSilver u\/silvertomars)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of gold, it should be noted that Switzerland processed and delivered nearly <a href=\"https:\/\/uk.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/switzerland-sent-524-tonnes-gold-125245180.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1200 metric tons of the yellow metal<\/a>\u00a0last year to just six countries: China, Thailand, Singapore, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and India &#8211; that means that those six nations imported an astounding <em><strong>one-half<\/strong><\/em> of all global gold mining output in 2022. What does that mean for us? Beats me. But it does illustrate just how rare the precious metals truly are &#8211; as well as a reminder that the time to purchase wealth insurance is when nobody else is interested in it. Because the day that changes, you can bet gold <em><strong>and<\/strong><\/em> silver will disappear faster than a fart in a wind tunnel.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Fo the first time since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the minimum net worth required to make the Forbes list of the world&#8217;s 400 wealthiest people fell, by $200 million, to $2.7 billion. Here are the current top ten &#8211; although the top spot <em><strong>may<\/strong><\/em> be up for debate (see article box at the end of this list):<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>10<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Jim Walton <em>(current net worth: $58 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>9<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Michael Bloomberg <em>($77 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>8<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Steve Ballmer <em>($83 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>7<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Sergey Brin <em>($89 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>6<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Larry Page <em>($93 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>5<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Warren Buffett <em>($97 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>4<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Larry Ellison <em>($101 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Bill Gates <em>($106 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>2<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Jeff Bezos <em>($151 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Elon Musk <em>($251 billion)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/forbes-400\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forbes<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-76952\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-21-1024x971.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"540\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-21-1024x971.png 1024w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-21-300x285.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-21-768x728.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Untitled-21.png 1516w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"459\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Results<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The last time you bought a dozen eggs, how much did you pay?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>$3 &#8211; $4.99 (49%)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>$5 &#8211; $7 (30%)<\/li>\n<li>I don&#8217;t buy eggs. (8%)<\/li>\n<li>Less than $3 (7%)<\/li>\n<li>More than $7 (6%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1900 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week&#8217;s question and it turns out that, among those who buy eggs, 2 out of 5 say they paid $5 or more for their last dozen. You can put yours truly in that camp, as I had to, ahem, shell out $5.73 for a dozen eggs. I&#8217;m just hoping that the price doesn&#8217;t crack the dollar per egg barrier later this year. (I&#8217;m here all week, folks!)<\/p>\n<p>If <em><strong>you<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0have a question you\u2019d like to see featured here, please send it to me at\u00a0<strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong>\u00a0and be sure to put \u201cQuestion of the Week\u201d in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: The Big Break<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A young unknown actor who spent his first several years playing minor background characters in more than two dozen plays, got the news that he had landed yet <em><strong>another<\/strong><\/em> bit part; this time as a Roman spear carrier.<\/p>\n<p>However, rather than being dejected, it turned out that the young actor was extremely excited because <em><strong>this<\/strong><\/em> particular role was the big break he had been patiently waiting for.<\/p>\n<p>You see, unlike every one of his previous roles, this one included actual dialogue! And while it was true the young actor had just one very short line, it was all his. The line was: &#8220;Methinks I hear a cannon.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>So for weeks, he diligently rehearsed his line, trying it out in every possible way. Subtle changes of inflection. Changes in tempo and timing. On the subway, on the street, and between taking orders at his restaurant day job, others would hear him muttering, &#8220;Methinks I hear a cannon!&#8221; &#8220;Methinks I hear &#8230; a cannon!&#8221; &#8220;Me <strong><em>thinks<\/em><\/strong> I hear &#8230; a cannon?&#8221; &#8220;Methinks I <em><strong>hear?<\/strong><\/em> A cannon!&#8221; and so on.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, after a month of relentless practice, opening night arrived and the theater was standing room only. The scene unfolds, and the actor&#8217;s big moment is near. There&#8217;s a loud boom offstage, and he says &#8230; &#8220;What the hell was that?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: rrinquen)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>More Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top five articles viewed by my <strong>44,832<\/strong>\u00a0RSS feed, weekly email subscribers, and other followers over the past 30 days (excluding Black Coffee posts):<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id580-a-simple-way-to-break-your-habit-to-overspend-3.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scientists Say This Clever Trick Can Help You Break Your Overspending Habit<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id15845-dear-friend-here-are-41-reasons-why-im-not-lending-you-the-money-2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dear Friend: Here Are 41 Reasons Why I\u2019m <em><strong>Not<\/strong><\/em> Lending You the Money<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id31147-the-collapse-your-wealth-insurance-and-when-to-use-it-2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">When Is the Right Time to Use Your Wealth Insurance (Gold &amp; Silver)?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id7577-marital-bliss-and-the-hunt-for-the-best-thermostat-setting-2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Thermostat Isn\u2019t the Only Tool for Saving Money on Your Utility Bills<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id76298-4-online-shopping-mistakes-youre-making-and-how-to-avoid-them.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> 4 Online Shopping Mistakes You\u2019re Making and How to Avoid Them<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Hey, while you&#8217;re here, please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Subscribe to my weekly <strong>Len Penzo dot Com Newsletter!<\/strong> (It&#8217;s easy! See the big green box in the sidebar at the top of the page.)<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you follow me on my new favorite quick-chat site, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/gab.com\/LenPenzo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gab<\/a><\/strong>! Of course, you can always <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>. Just be careful what you say there.<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. <em><strong>Please support this website by patronizing my sponsors!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Thank you!!!! &#x1f60a;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This week, <strong>Michele<\/strong> disagreed with my article explaining <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id1007-why-extended-warranties-for-new-tires-are-a-waste-of-money-3.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">why extended warranties for new tires are a waste of money<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8221; I seem to have a knack for getting nails in the sidewalls of at least two tires for every set of tires I own.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Pro tip: Sidewall failures rarely happen when the tires are installed with the tread-side down.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. &#x1f60a;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: public domain<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I hope everybody had a wonderful week. And with that, let&#8217;s get right to this week&#8217;s commentary, shall [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51224,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-76892","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Welcome to the Fun House<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id76892-black-coffee-28-jan-2023.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Welcome to the Fun House\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I hope everybody had a wonderful week. And with that, let&#8217;s get right to this week&#8217;s commentary, shall [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id76892-black-coffee-28-jan-2023.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Len Penzo dot Com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-01-28T09:15:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-01-31T00:19:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"404\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"387\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Len Penzo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" 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