{"id":64014,"date":"2020-12-05T02:15:25","date_gmt":"2020-12-05T10:15:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=64014"},"modified":"2020-12-07T22:12:26","modified_gmt":"2020-12-08T06:12:26","slug":"black-coffee-5-dec-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id64014-black-coffee-5-dec-2020.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Racing to the Bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-51224 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"251\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg 404w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags-300x287.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 251px) 100vw, 251px\" \/><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s get right to this week&#8217;s financial commentary &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Hitting rock bottom is an opportunity to rebuild.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Anonymous<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>We have come to the edge of the abyss. Now it&#8217;s time to take a bold step forward.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Ed Balls<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? Both the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 hit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forexlive.com\/technical-analysis\/!\/sp-index-reaches-a-news-all-time-high-20201203\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">new all-time highs<\/a> this week. Yes, yet again. And while the seemingly relentless upward trajectory of the stock market is great for 401(k) and other retirement accounts, just remember that the underlying reasons for those rising stock prices has less to do with the state of the economy than it does with the printing presses at the Fed.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"und\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24SPX&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$SPX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4xcikrkMcx\">pic.twitter.com\/4xcikrkMcx<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NorthmanTrader\/status\/1334576597421219841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 3, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of high prices, economist Joseph Carson notes that, &#8220;Houses would be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecarsonreport.com\/post\/actual-inflation-is-rising-during-the-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">one of the most important measures<\/a> to gauge inflation because their price cycles include three key ingredients of rising prices: easy credit, excess demand, and inflation expectations.&#8221; With that in mind, if actual house prices were used instead of rents, core CPI this year would have registered nearly twice the reported gain of 1.6%. Imagine that.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> As part of its <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><del>indefinite<\/del><\/span> permanent <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><del>quantitative easing (QE)<\/del><\/span> counterfeiting program, the Fed said it plans to print $960 billion in 2021 &#8212; although many economists suggest it may have to print at least <em><strong>double<\/strong><\/em> that figure to <a href=\"https:\/\/schiffgold.com\/key-gold-news\/fed-would-need-to-double-quantitative-easing-to-keep-pace-with-us-debt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">keep the monetary system from seizing up<\/a> &#8212; and that&#8217;s just for next year.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"und\"><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lehKz588Bk\">pic.twitter.com\/lehKz588Bk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>WhataTimeToBeAlive (@majida_knows) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/majida_knows\/status\/1334183541320667138?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 2, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> So why is the Fed willingly debauching its own currency? It&#8217;s simple: Since the value of financial assets in our highly-financialized economy is at a record 620% of GDP, the Fed now sees capital markets as a proxy for the US economy. And why is that, you ask? Because they know that means if the markets crash then <a href=\"https:\/\/elexonic.com\/2020\/11\/14\/is-another-crisis-imminent-the-fed-must-double-qe-in-2021-but-it-needs-a-catalyst\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the US economy will collapse in tandem<\/a> &#8212; and that is <em>verboten<\/em>. Yes, even if that means destroying the dollar. If only that was as fun as destroying <strong><em>this<\/em><\/strong> stuff:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/b_AvDy2de0Q?controls=0&amp;start=3;end=64\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> With more than $1 trillion in US Treasuries in their possession, the Chinese are well aware of what&#8217;s happening to the US dollar, which is why they&#8217;re selling them to buy and stockpile commodities. With that in mind, macroeconomist Alasdair Macleod notes that, &#8220;The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmoney.com\/research\/goldmoney-insights\/global-inflation-watch\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">most profound effect<\/a> on a currency&#8217;s purchasing power comes when both foreign owners and domestic users realize debasement will continue and accelerate.&#8221; Uh huh. So we&#8217;re half way there.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> How concerned are the Chinese and, presumably, other foreign nations? Well &#8230; ever since the Fed told the world on March 23rd that there was no longer a limit on how many dollars they will print to keep the monetary system from imploding, China has been dumping their Treasuries &#8212; their holdings recently hit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/foreign-central-banks-buy-tsys-2nd-month-china-holdings-near-4-year-lows\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a four-year low<\/a> &#8212; while ramping up purchases of iron ore, copper, oil, wheat, cooking oil, and soybeans. Coincidence? You tell me.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> You can be sure of this: It&#8217;s definitely <em><strong>not<\/strong><\/em> a coincidence that the seeds of the current monetary mayhem were planted in 1971, when the US <a href=\"https:\/\/mises.org\/wire\/inequality-and-gold-standard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">dollar was decoupled from gold<\/a>. Unfortunately, it&#8217;s that corrupt international system of currency which &#8212; for now &#8212; continues to determine the totality of life on this planet &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/zI5hrcwU7Dk?controls=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Of course, what makes all of this central bank monetary-malpractice so sinister is its ultimate impact on society. This week MN Gordon highlighted that fact when he noted that &#8220;the money you&#8217;ve saved, in addition to being property, also represents <a href=\"https:\/\/economicprism.com\/the-sisyphean-folly-of-printing-press-money\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">time and the sacrifices made<\/a> to earn it. When the Fed inflates (the dollar) away it not only steals your money &#8212; it steals your life.&#8221; Sadly, if not somewhat ironically, it&#8217;s the middle class that&#8217;s affected most of all.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> The good news is everyone can protect themselves from what&#8217;s coming. As asset manager Egon Von Greyerz reminds us, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/greyerz-the-world-is-headed-into-the-worst-nightmare-imaginable\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">It doesn&#8217;t really matter<\/a> which currency wins the race&#8221; to lose all of their purchasing power first because every fiat currency has gone to zero over time. Here&#8217;s the undisputed truth: The <em><strong>only<\/strong><\/em> money that&#8217;s maintained its purchasing power throughout 5000 years of human history is gold. Okay &#8230; and silver too.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, for those of you who are only thinking about the short term, keep in mind that gold is closely correlated with real &#8212; that is, inflation-adjusted &#8212; bond yields. As long as that correlation has not been recently invalidated, it at least <em><strong>suggests<\/strong><\/em> that the dollar price of gold (and silver) most likely reached a bottom last week. Then again, that and a silver quarter will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Historically, real yields &amp; gold have a strong correlation. Note how gold took off near gold&#8217;s 2018 bottom as real yields fell. The recent drop in real yields may partially explain recent 3-day surge in gold mining stocks (even as gold kept falling). Time for gold to catch up?<\/p>\n<p>fred hickey (@htsfhickey) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/htsfhickey\/status\/1333543856709767169?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 30, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> This week, billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the intensifying conflict and degrading financial situation within America has the US &#8220;at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/archetypical-cycle-internal-order-disorder-ray-dalio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a tipping point<\/a>&#8221; thanks to &#8220;excessive debt and widening wealth- and political-gaps.&#8221; That being said, if central banks could dial back their reckless monetary policies, we&#8217;d have a shot at stepping away from the abyss &#8212; but they can&#8217;t. So over the edge we&#8217;ll go. The question is: Are you making plans to cushion the fall?<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"349\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Results<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How much is your Christmas gift budget this year?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Less than $500 (47%)<\/li>\n<li>$500 &#8211; $1000 (30%)<\/li>\n<li>More than $1000 (23%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1900 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week&#8217;s question and it turns out that just over half of them will be spending more than $500 on Christmas presents this year. That comports with yours truly, who expects to spend just under $1000 on gifts this holiday season.<\/p>\n<p>If <strong><em>you<\/em><\/strong> have a question you&#8217;d like me to ask the readers here, send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the price increases for select assets since March 23rd, when the Fed announced it was going all-in on quantitative easing:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>21%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Gold<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>29%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Aluminum<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\">45%<\/span><\/strong><\/span> Soybeans<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>52%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Copper<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>57%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> S&amp;P 500<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>72%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Nasdaq<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>86%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Silver<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>86%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Lumber<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>94%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Oil (West Texas Intermediate)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>207%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Bitcoin<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/we-are-seeing-early-warning-signs-of-massive-inflation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">King World News<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: The Birds and the Bees<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A young boy asked his father, &#8220;Dad, how were people born?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>His father said, &#8220;Adam and Eve made babies, then their babies became adults and made babies, and so on.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The child then went to his mother, and asked her the same question. She told him, &#8220;Well, Honey &#8230; We were monkeys; then we evolved to become like we are now.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"read-more-text\">The boy, who was now completely confused, quickly ran back to his father and said, &#8220;Dad! You lied to me! Mom said we started out as monkeys.&#8221; <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"read-more-text\">The father smiled, and then replied, &#8220;I didn&#8217;t lie to you, son. Your mom was talking about <em><strong>her<\/strong><\/em> side of the family.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Sam I Am)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>More Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hey, while you&#8217;re here, please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a> &#8212; oh, <a href=\"https:\/\/parler.com\/LenPenzo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">and Parler too<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. <em><strong>Please support this website by patronizing my sponsors!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Thank you!!!! &#128522;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">(The Best of)<\/span> Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After reading my article on <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id812-no-im-not-cutting-up-my-credit-cards-maybe-you-shouldnt-either.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Why You Should (and Shouldn&#8217;t) Use a Credit Card<\/a>, <b>Laddester L. Conyers<\/b> shared this observation:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>The credit card industry calls people like us who never carry a balance, &#8216;dead beats.&#8217;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Uh huh. But that&#8217;s mild compared to what most people call the credit card industry.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: public domain<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. Let&#8217;s get right to this week&#8217;s financial commentary &#8230; Hitting rock bottom is an opportunity to rebuild. &#8212; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51224,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-64014","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Racing to the Bottom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id64014-black-coffee-5-dec-2020.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Racing to the Bottom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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