{"id":63376,"date":"2020-10-17T02:15:36","date_gmt":"2020-10-17T09:15:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=63376"},"modified":"2021-08-01T17:58:52","modified_gmt":"2021-08-02T00:58:52","slug":"black-coffee-17-oct-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id63376-black-coffee-17-oct-2020.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: The Wolf at the Door"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-51224\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg 404w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags-300x287.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe<\/em> &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>First off, I want to thank everyone who offered their support and condolences last week. Your kind words provided me with some much-needed comfort during an emotionally trying time. I really appreciate it.<\/p>\n<p>Okay, let&#8217;s get right to it &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>No society can surely be flourishing and happy when the far greater part of its members are poor and miserable.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Adam Smith<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>The corruption in business and government; the tyranny; the world-strangling debt and deficits &#8212; all of it is possible only with fiat currency.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Franklin Sanders<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? Professor Teresa Ghilarducci, who is one of the nation&#8217;s leading experts on retirement, says that half of all Americans aged 55 and up will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/half-of-americans-over-55-may-retire-poor-2020-10-01\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">retire in poverty<\/a> or near-poverty. What exactly does that mean? Well &#8230; the professor says a person who&#8217;s 65 and living on $20,000 a year or less will end up suffering from &#8220;chronic deprivation for the rest of their life.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Then again, it&#8217;s not just older Americans who are plagued with low incomes. The Social Security Administration just released their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/cgi-bin\/netcomp.cgi?year=2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">latest wage statistics<\/a> and they show that 2 out of 3 American workers earned less than $50,000 in 2019. Unfortunately, that&#8217;s not the worst of it &#8212; 50% of the entire American workforce made less than $34,248 last year. Yes, <strong><em>half!<\/em><\/strong> Meanwhile &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-63427 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Tweet-Rudy-1-885x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"532\" height=\"616\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Tweet-Rudy-1-885x1024.png 885w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Tweet-Rudy-1-259x300.png 259w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Tweet-Rudy-1-768x889.png 768w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Tweet-Rudy-1.png 1218w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 532px) 100vw, 532px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, despite record-low mortgage interest rates, the share of homeowners who are <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/mortgage-delinquency-rate-hits-21-year-high-180315848.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">four months behind<\/a> on their mortgage payments hit a 21-year high in July. The 120-day delinquency rate stood at 1.4%, up from 0.12% in July 2019 &#8212; that&#8217;s the highest level since data tracking started in 1999. As if the Fed needed yet <strong><em>more<\/em><\/strong> evidence that their reckless zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) continues to be an abject failure.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of ZIRP, last week economist Darwin Larmack warned that as rates approach 0%, <a href=\"https:\/\/research.nava.capital\/market-valuations-do-they-still-matter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">only the finance industry thrives<\/a> because zombie and other corporations use ever-increasing leverage to buy existing capital. &#8220;The consequence,&#8221; Larmack warns, &#8220;is a smaller percentage of debt backed by productive capital &#8212; in a system where total debt can never be repaid, and the can is kicked until it can&#8217;t anymore.&#8221; In other words: We&#8217;re stuck with a system that could have been designed by these guys &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/um1cR-b0gj0?controls=0&amp;start=22\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In fact, the enormous amount of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/low-interest-rates-promote-malinvestment-6-negative-consequences-51600475320\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">malinvestment caused by 0% interest rates<\/a> over the past decade is one reason why Larmack is now predicting that &#8220;the S&amp;P 500 is unlikely to have a positive <em><strong>nominal<\/strong><\/em> total return during the next 10 years &#8212; and it would need a miracle to achieve positive <em><strong>real<\/strong><\/em> returns.&#8221; Of course, <em><strong>that<\/strong><\/em> leads me to share a prediction of my own: Mr. Larmack can officially stop waiting for an invitation to speak on CNBC. Well &#8230; at least until 2030.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Maybe that helps explain the mixed reports on Main Street. It&#8217;s no secret that, thanks to the COVID shutdown, the US economy <em><strong>contracted<\/strong><\/em> by an annualized rate of 31.4% last quarter. On the other hand, annualized GDP is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">expected to <em><strong>expand<\/strong><\/em> 35.2%<\/a> at the end of this quarter. Oh &#8230; and by the way, if you think <em><strong>that&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> the craziest good-news bad-news story you&#8217;ve ever heard, then you haven&#8217;t heard <em><strong>this<\/strong><\/em>:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/AohunABHr08?controls=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Despite the tremendous expansion that&#8217;s expected this quarter, macroeconomist Jim Rickards points out &#8220;that still leaves you 7.4 percentage points <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/we-destroyed-the-worlds-greatest-economy-for-no-reason\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in the hole<\/a>, not counting the 5% drop in the first quarter. And when you apply 7.4% to a $22 trillion economy, that means you have $1.6 trillion of lost output even <em><strong>after<\/strong><\/em> the 35% third-quarter recovery.&#8221; Which just goes to show, if you look hard enough, every silver lining has a cloud.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Unfortunately, Rickards says this means, &#8220;The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/v\/v-shaped-recovery.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">V-shaped recovery<\/a> looks more like an &#8216;L&#8217; with flattish growth beyond the third-quarter. Things won&#8217;t necessarily get much better from there, and progress is very much in doubt.&#8221; Okay &#8212; but on a positive note &#8230; that&#8217;s still much better than a &#8220;bathtub&#8221; recovery: A steep decline, followed by a period of stagnation &#8212; then the economy goes down the drain.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> According to economist Peter Schiff, <a href=\"https:\/\/schiffgold.com\/commentaries\/peter-schiff-the-best-of-times-during-the-worst-of-times\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the dichotomy between Wall St. and Main St.<\/a> exists because &#8220;Fed stimulus is helpful to large publicly-traded companies that can borrow by issuing bonds. In contrast, smaller companies typically rely on traditional bank loans, which are often riskier than alternative uses of bank capital. As a result, they&#8217;re routinely denied credit or face much higher interest rates.&#8221; Uh huh. But, hey &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">We are the prime species on this planet. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lR0VUMB7Ei\">pic.twitter.com\/lR0VUMB7Ei<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NorthmanTrader\/status\/1316463962498760706?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 14, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> As for the bottom line, Schiff notes that, &#8220;Although most people <a href=\"https:\/\/tweakyourbiz.com\/business\/press-release\/trade-ideas-review-read-this-review-before-investing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">understand the stock market<\/a> and the economy don&#8217;t move in lockstep, there&#8217;s still an underlying belief that a strong market reflects a strong economy. But strength on Wall St. is now driven by broader-economy weakness.&#8221; Sad. And if that doesn&#8217;t perfectly exemplify how free-market <a href=\"https:\/\/mises.org\/wire\/myth-failure-capitalism\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">capitalism has become compromised<\/a> in America, then I don&#8217;t know what does.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"342\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Do you use a budget to help manage your personal finances?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Yes (48%)<\/li>\n<li>No (40%)<\/li>\n<li>I used to, but not anymore. (12%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 2400 Len Penzo dot Com readers answered last week&#8217;s poll question and it turns out that 3 in 5 of them either actively use a budget to control their finances, or did so in the past. Put yours truly in the latter category.<\/p>\n<p>If <em><strong>you<\/strong><\/em> have a question you&#8217;d like to see featured here, please send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For those who are willing to travel amid the COVID pandemic, these are the top 10 cities in the world to visit this year, according to travel-guide website Lonely Planet:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>10<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Denver, Colorado<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>9<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Dubai, UAE<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>8<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Vancouver, Canada<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>7<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Kochi, India<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>6<\/strong><\/span><\/span> La Paz, Bolivia<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>5<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Bonn, Germany<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>4<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Galway, Ireland<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Cairo, Egypt<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>2<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Washington, DC<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Salzburg, Austria<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lonelyplanet.com\/best-in-travel\/cities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Lonely Planet<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Slow Driver<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A state trooper spied a car puttering along on a major highway at a dangerously slow pace. So he turned on his lights and pulled the driver over to see if there was a problem with the vehicle.<\/p>\n<p>Approaching the car, the trooper noticed that there were five old guys inside, and all of them except for the driver looked wide-eyed and terribly pale.<\/p>\n<p>The officer then tapped on the window and the driver rolled it down. The old man then began pleading with the cop, &#8220;Officer, I don&#8217;t understand. I wasn&#8217;t speeding, so what seems to be the problem?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Sir, I agree you weren&#8217;t speeding,&#8221; the officer replied, &#8220;but driving slower than the speed limit can also be dangerous.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I beg to differ, Officer,&#8221; said the old driver. &#8220;I was doing the exact speed limit: 22 miles an hour.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The trooper, chuckling, explained to him that &#8217;22&#8217; was the route number, not the speed limit.<\/p>\n<p>A bit embarrassed, the old driver grinned and thanked the officer for pointing out his error. The trooper then said, &#8220;Before I let you go, Sir, I have to ask &#8230; Is everyone in this car okay? Your passengers seem awfully shaken.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Oh, they&#8217;ll be all right in a minute,&#8221; the old man said. &#8220;We just got off Route 119!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Cowpoke)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five Canadian provinces and territories in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. Yukon (2.50 pages\/visit)<br \/>\n2. Saskatchewan (2.05)<br \/>\n3. Manitoba (1.89)<br \/>\n4. Alberta (1.79)<br \/>\n5. Northwest Territories (1.75)<\/p>\n<p>9. Ontario (1.50)<br \/>\n10. Quebec (1.41)<br \/>\n11. Nova Scotia (1.40)<br \/>\n12. Prince Edward Island (1.25)<br \/>\n13. Nunavut (1.00)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like those crazy canucks in the Yukon, eh) &#8212; or not (ahem, all you hosers living on the frozen Nunavut tundra) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a> &#8212; oh yeah, <a href=\"https:\/\/parler.com\/LenPenzo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">and Parler<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. <em><strong>Please support this website by patronizing my sponsors!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Thank you!!!! &#128522;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If I am to believe everything I get in my email inbox, <strong>The FBI<\/strong> has apparently been keeping tabs on me and they don&#8217;t like what they see:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Sir: We have logged your IP address on more than 40 illegal websites. Please answer the attached questions.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Sorry &#8212; I&#8217;m going to pass. In fact, why don&#8217;t you just cut out the middle man and go directly to the NSA?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: stock photo<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. First off, I want to thank everyone who offered their support and condolences last week. Your kind words [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51224,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-63376","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: The Wolf at the Door<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id63376-black-coffee-17-oct-2020.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: The Wolf at the Door\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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