{"id":60886,"date":"2020-05-09T02:15:19","date_gmt":"2020-05-09T09:15:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=60886"},"modified":"2024-11-13T13:06:43","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T21:06:43","slug":"black-coffee-9-may-2020-coronavirus-money-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id60886-black-coffee-9-may-2020-coronavirus-money-report.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: A Growing Hole In the US Treasury&#8217;s Wallet &#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-51224\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg 404w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags-300x287.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>For most people on Main Street, <a href=\"https:\/\/techbullion.com\/mindful-trader-a-quiet-in-the-storm\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the financial crisis<\/a> rages on &#8212; just don&#8217;t tell that to the suits on Wall Street, where everything seems to be lollipops and rainbows again. So let&#8217;s get right to this week&#8217;s commentary &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Black hole sun, won&#8217;t you come and wash away the rain?<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Chris Cornell<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>When your outgo exceeds your income, your upkeep becomes your downfall.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Anonymous<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? Astronomers have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/science\/archive\/2020\/05\/closest-known-black-hole\/611188\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">discovered a black hole<\/a> in a constellation just 1000 light-years away &#8212; that&#8217;s the closest black hole to our solar system ever found. And while 1000 light-years seems distant, astronomer Thomas Rivinius says, &#8220;On the scale of the Milky Way, it&#8217;s in our backyard.&#8221; Thankfully, the good scientist hasn&#8217;t recommended a global economic shutdown to reduce the risk of planetary annihilation. Yet.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, this week Bill Blain wondered <a href=\"https:\/\/morningporridge.com\/the-morning-porridge\/f\/blains-morning-porridge---may-5-2020-markets-are-doomed-great\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">why anybody continues to buy financial assets<\/a>. He says, &#8220;The repression of interest rates to zero and negative real yields has become an absolute disincentive to invest in them. This has made businesses less efficient as they grow flabby on cheap debt, while pushing up their stock prices through buy-backs.&#8221; You can say that again. By the way, Blain isn&#8217;t the only guy who hates inefficient flabby losers &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7Mk1nykjnYA?controls=0&amp;start=100;end=187\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, as macroeconomist Alasdair Macleod points out, &#8220;The Fed has embarked on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmoney.com\/research\/goldmoney-insights\/geopolitics-post-covid-19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">an exercise in inflation<\/a>, designed to uphold the state by maintaining the value of its debt &#8212; and therefore all other financial assets. If the Fed fails &#8212; and they will because the task is too great &#8212; then the currency will fail as well, and remarkably quickly.&#8221; The good news is, if he&#8217;s wrong, we&#8217;ll all get to keep pretending we&#8217;re rich for a little while longer.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Mike Maloney points out that, for the past two decades, US tax revenues have been <a href=\"https:\/\/goldsilver.com\/blog\/chain-reaction-is-the-crisis-about-to-expand-special-report-with-mike-maloney\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">highly correlated to stock market<\/a> performance. If the bear market continues and the correlation continues to hold, then we can expect US deficits to end up exploding in the coming months and years, which will exacerbate the National Debt, and the put even <em><strong>more<\/strong><\/em> pressure on the dollar&#8217;s viability.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_60912\" style=\"width: 541px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-60912\" class=\"wp-image-60912\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/tax-receipts-vs-stock-market.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"531\" height=\"443\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/tax-receipts-vs-stock-market.png 896w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/tax-receipts-vs-stock-market-300x250.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/tax-receipts-vs-stock-market-768x641.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 531px) 100vw, 531px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-60912\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The $25 trillion question: How far is that red line going to drop if the blue line doesn&#8217;t reverse course in short order?<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> You can bet the government knows their tax receipts are closely tied to the stock market&#8217;s performance &#8212; as well as robust property valuations &#8212; which is a big reason why the Treasury announced it is borrowing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/05\/04\/us-treasury-seeks-to-borrow-a-record-3-trillion-this-quarter.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">$3 trillion this quarter<\/a>. Yes, <em><strong>this quarter!<\/strong><\/em> Remember, it took America 207 years to accrue its first $1 trillion in debt; now, it&#8217;s $3 trillion in a quarter. If there&#8217;s a clearer sign that we&#8217;re in the terminal phase of exponential debt growth, I&#8217;d like to see it.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Unfortunately for the government, concentrating most assets in the hands of the wealthiest individuals results in a <a href=\"http:\/\/charleshughsmith.blogspot.com\/2020\/05\/why-assets-will-crash.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">self-reinforcing feedback loop<\/a> &#8212; which is why Charles Hugh Smith warns that &#8220;once housing and real estate valuations fall, that will trigger a decline in the value of <em><strong>all<\/strong><\/em> costly assets.&#8221; Think: the so-called &#8220;wealth effect&#8221; in reverse.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Of course, very few people seem to realize that the coronavirus isn&#8217;t <em><strong>the reason<\/strong><\/em> for the collapsing world economy &#8212; it&#8217;s only <em><strong>the trigger. <\/strong><\/em>In other words: COVID-19 is the pin that popped the global financial bubble. And therein <a href=\"https:\/\/schiffgold.com\/guest-commentaries\/a-did-not-cause-b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">lies the rub<\/a>, folks &#8212; since the coronavirus didn&#8217;t <em><strong>cause<\/strong><\/em> the financial crisis, eliminating the coronavirus won&#8217;t <em><strong>solve<\/strong><\/em> the financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Then again, conjuring more currency out of thin air won&#8217;t fix the crisis either. In fact, Macleod notes that by trying to prop up asset prices by papering over our failing and corrupt monetary system with more worthless fiat currency, &#8220;the world&#8217;s central banks are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmoney.com\/research\/goldmoney-insights\/anatomy-of-a-fiat-currency-collapse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">repeating the mistakes<\/a> John Law (made) in France 300 years ago almost to the letter &#8212; but this time on a global scale.&#8221; Maybe so &#8230; but at least all this corruption is for the children:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/0CP5FAjnJfM?controls=0&amp;start=1;end=96\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">&#65279;<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> The trouble is, most people don&#8217;t understand how <a href=\"https:\/\/mises.org\/wire\/lenin-was-right\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">debauching a currency<\/a> undermines their long term real savings, and transfers earning power from the individual to the state via inflation. And that economic illiteracy is what allows politicians to continually finance their extravagant and wasteful spending without raising taxes and riling up the electorate. Sadly, it&#8217;s also going to eventually kill the US dollar.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of debt, Bill Holter warned this week that, &#8220;The global financial and economic system is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jsmineset.com\/2020\/05\/02\/no-bid\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">working its way to no bid;<\/a> meaning activity has collapsed, which means the cash flow required to service the greatest amount of debt in human history is no longer there. Debt has become the pillar holding everything up &#8212; but what will prop up debt?&#8221; Well &#8230; if you watch the Fed, the answer is obvious: more debt. Makes sense. Er, I think.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> After all, in today&#8217;s hyper-financialized world, it appears both debt <em><strong>and<\/strong><\/em> the real economy are completely overrated. How else can you explain <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-08-2020-11588911516\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the stock market&#8217;s absurd Friday melt-up<\/a> &#8212; the same day the US reported <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/08\/business\/stock-market-coronavirus-jobs-report.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">21 million jobs were lost in April<\/a>? That&#8217;s the biggest drop <em><strong>ever<\/strong><\/em>, and 10 times the 2 million jobs lost at the peak of the Great Depression. So just imagine how wealthy stock market investors are going to be when <em><strong>everybody<\/strong><\/em> is unemployed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>April 2020 was one of the worst single months for dividend-paying firms in stock market history. In fact, the number of dividend reduction announcements exceeded the number of dividend increases in the month, the first time that has occurred since the last financial crisis in 2008.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3092<\/strong><\/span><\/span> US firms that declared dividends last month; that&#8217;s 777 fewer than March 2020.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>32<\/strong><\/span><\/span> US firms that announced they would pay a special dividend to their shareholders in April 2019.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>11<\/strong><\/span><\/span> US firms that announced they would pay a special dividend to their shareholders in April 2020; that&#8217;s the second lowest total ever. (8 in August 2009)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>53<\/strong><\/span><\/span> US firms that announced they would boost cash dividend payments to shareholders last month; that&#8217;s 81 less than the number for March 2020, and 104 fewer than the increases declared in April 2019.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>120<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The number of publicly traded US companies that cut their dividends last month.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>29<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The number of publicly traded US companies that cut their dividends in April 2019.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>155<\/strong><\/span><\/span> US firms that suspended dividend payments in April 2020.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>23<\/strong><\/span><\/span> US firms that stopped paying their dividends in March 2020.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1<\/strong><\/span><\/span> US firms that suspended dividend payments in April 2019.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4343460-dividends-numbers-in-april-2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Seeking Alpha<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How many siblings do you have?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1 (40%)<\/li>\n<li>2 (21%)<\/li>\n<li>None (18%)<\/li>\n<li>3 (15%)<\/li>\n<li>4 or more (6%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 2100 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week&#8217;s question and it turns out that, slightly more than 1 in 5 of you out there have at least three siblings &#8212; while slightly less than 1 in 5 say they have no brothers or sisters at all &#8212; at least that they&#8217;re aware of. For comparison purposes, the number of US <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csmonitor.com\/USA\/Society\/2019\/0724\/The-rise-of-the-only-child-Why-more-families-are-happy-with-one\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">families with a single child<\/a> reportedly climbed from 11% in 1976 to 22% in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>By the way, this week&#8217;s question was suggested by reader <strong>Roberta<\/strong>. If you have a question you&#8217;d like me to ask the readers here, send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[poll id=&#8221;320&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Brains for Sale<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A doctor noticed a sidewalk stand that said &#8216;brains for sale.&#8217; So he went over to investigate and noticed that physician brains were selling for $8 a pound, paramedic brains were going for $12 a pound, and nurse brains $15 a pound &#8212; but lawyer brains were priced at $90 a pound.<\/p>\n<p>Slightly miffed at the prices, the doctor asked the man behind the counter, &#8220;Hey! How come physician brains are only worth $8 while a lawyer&#8217;s brain is worth $90?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The man replied, &#8220;Do you know how many lawyers it takes to make a pound of brains?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Salamander)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>This Week&#8217;s Sponsor: Get the Best Insurance Rates with Gabi!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-60782\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/gabi-300x168.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/gabi-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/gabi.png 638w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>Gabi is a full-service, online advisor who compares all your insurance options to find you the right policy. Best of all, <strong>Gabi gets 7 out of 10 clients lower premiums<\/strong>! So what are you waiting for? <b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pubtrack.co\/92QLN22\/69KHPZ\/?creative_id=91\">Get an instant quote with Gabi<\/a> and save up to $720 annually!<\/b><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five states in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. South Dakota (1.87 pages\/visit)<br \/>\n2. Maine (1.83)<br \/>\n3. New Hampshire (1.71)<br \/>\n4. Utah (1.68)<br \/>\n5. Arkansas (1.67)<\/p>\n<p>46. Rhode Island (1.13)<br \/>\n47. Hawaii (1.12)<br \/>\n48. Montana (1.10)<br \/>\n49. Illinois (1.08)<br \/>\n50. Mississippi (1.05)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like my friends living in South Dakota) &#8212; or not (ahem, Mississippi) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. <em><strong>Please support this website by patronizing my sponsors!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Thank you!!!! &#128522;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This week, <strong>Gael<\/strong> decided to share her thoughts on my extremely well-researched article explaining why <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id16567-15-reasons-why-waterbeds-are-for-suckers.html\">only suckers buy waterbeds<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>This post is utter rubbish!<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Rubbish? Let me guess &#8230; you&#8217;re from Texas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: public domain<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. For most people on Main Street, the financial crisis rages on &#8212; just don&#8217;t tell that to the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51224,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-60886","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: A Growing Hole In the US Treasury&#039;s Wallet ...<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id60886-black-coffee-9-may-2020-coronavirus-money-report.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: A Growing Hole In the US Treasury&#039;s Wallet ...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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