{"id":59693,"date":"2020-02-29T02:15:52","date_gmt":"2020-02-29T10:15:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=59693"},"modified":"2020-03-03T05:17:56","modified_gmt":"2020-03-03T13:17:56","slug":"black-coffee-29-feb-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id59693-black-coffee-29-feb-2020.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Red Storm Rising"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-39451\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\" alt=\"hurricane-flags\" width=\"300\" height=\"287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg 404w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/hurricane-flags-300x287.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>I think it&#8217;s fair to say it has been a pretty tough week for most people&#8217;s investment portfolios this week. That being said, I hope everybody is having a wonderful weekend.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>You can ignore reality, but you can&#8217;t ignore the consequences of reality.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Ayn Rand<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>If you want to see the sunshine, you have to weather the storm.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Frank Lane<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? A recent survey of US consumers on Corona beer found that 38% &#8220;would not buy Corona beer under any circumstances.&#8221; And 16% of the respondents said they were &#8220;confused about whether <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/corona-beer-coronavirus-sickness-misinformation-2020-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Corona beer is related to the coronavirus<\/a>.&#8221; In other words, roughly 1 in every 7 Americans is officially an idiot.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On a related note, until last week, Wall Street markets had gone <a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/02\/20\/never-go-full-retard\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">full retard<\/a> too &#8212; they were on an almost-constant upward trajectory, with little to no regard for earnings and other basic business and macroeconomic fundamentals. In fact, things were so bad that I was actually beginning to entertain thoughts that perpetual motion machines were real &#8212; and that there really <em><strong>was<\/strong><\/em> such a thing as a free lunch.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Then again, I also knew that until recently the markets were only going up because they had been feasting on a daily diet of currency injections that were being pumped into the economy by the Fed. And why was the Fed doing <em><strong>that<\/strong><\/em>? Because, as asset manager Sven Henrich noted earlier this month:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">If central bankers don&#8217;t intervene every single day<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/I0FnNz9K4b\">pic.twitter.com\/I0FnNz9K4b<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NorthmanTrader\/status\/1230119498923085824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 19, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Fast forward to this week; it&#8217;s a much different story. Despite the constant liquidity injections by the Fed, the US equity market is now in the midst of its worst start to any year since 2009. In fact, the plunge in global equities has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/5-trillion-wiped-out-world-stocks-set-worst-weekly-slump-2008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">wiped out more than $5 trillion<\/a> in value &#8212; equivalent to Japan&#8217;s annual GDP. And that was only through <em><strong>Thursday<\/strong><\/em>. Uh oh.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Over the six trading days between February 20th and 27th, the Dow officially entered a correction &#8212; falling nearly 11%, from its record high and losing more than 3000 points. Somewhat ominously, the only other time the Dow entered <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/last-time-happened-was-days-great-depression\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a correction that fast<\/a> from an all-time high was in 1928, just before the start of the Great Depression. That&#8217;s probably why frustrated asset-managers are now hearing <em><strong>this<\/strong><\/em> from many of their clients:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/NdtLSjD97Zg?controls=0&amp;start=0;end=19\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">&#65279;<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Ahem &#8230; sadly, there was no relief for <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/stock-market-news-live-updates-february-28-2020-234447699.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">shell-shocked investors<\/a> who couldn&#8217;t get out on Friday, as the markets ended in the red for a <em><strong>seventh<\/strong><\/em> straight day. For the week, the S&amp;P was down 9.3%, the Dow lost 10.5% and the Nasdaq shed 6.8%. On an historic basis, the S&amp;P suffered its third-worst February since 1960, while the Dow limped in with its third-worst since 1930, and the Nasdaq endured its fifth-worst since 1972.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> For those wondering just <a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/02\/25\/jawboning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">how much more pain<\/a> the Fed is willing to take, Mr. Henrich offers his answer: &#8220;Virtually none. The economy isn&#8217;t the stock market, but the stock market <em><strong>is<\/strong><\/em> the economy. Or rather the stock market is the biggest threat to the economy and (therefore) must be protected at all costs.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Unfortunately, after a decade of foisting their reckless cheap credit policies on the rest of us, the Fed and other global central bankers have nobody to blame but themselves for the resultant moral hazard and the giant asset bubbles they created. Now for the really bad news: <a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/macroview-japan-the-fed-the-limits-of-qe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the central banks are hopelessly cornered<\/a> with no way out. At best, they may be able to delay the inevitable reckoning that has been a long time coming. If they&#8217;re lucky.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> As Bill Holter warns, &#8220;We have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jsmineset.com\/2020\/02\/26\/a-cash-flow-problem-credit-game-over\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a massive credit event<\/a> directly in front of us because cash flows are rapidly becoming impaired. Credit is in the process of breaking down like a domino chain being tipped. The result will be none left standing.&#8221; As you can see, it won&#8217;t take much to get it all started either &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WgvcCiPpO_o?controls=0&amp;start=129;end=169\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, for those on the sidelines who have cashed out of the stock market &#8212; waiting to scoop up bargains after the, um, last domino falls &#8212; Mr. Holter has news for you too: &#8220;Because <em><strong>all<\/strong><\/em> fiat <a href=\"https:\/\/mises.org\/library\/our-money-based-debt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">currencies are debt based<\/a>, when the credit markets become impaired, so will the currency markets &#8212; and anyone sitting in cash for &#8216;safety&#8217; reasons will be sorely disappointed because they&#8217;re in the same frying pan.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> So, will the Fed initiate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/only-question-matters-will-fed-launch-coordinated-central-bank-bailout-sunday-night\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a coordinated central bank bailout<\/a> this weekend? If they intervene &#8212; to the extent they can &#8212; will confidence return? And if it <em><strong>does<\/strong><\/em> return, then what? Because the Fed can&#8217;t stop the corona virus&#8217;s effect on the global economy, supply chains, and domestic businesses &#8212; effects which are still ahead of us. So buckle up, folks &#8230; this is only the leading edge of a <em><strong>very<\/strong><\/em> big storm.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The initial damage reports from the market storm centered over Wall Street isn&#8217;t pretty:<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\">7<\/span><\/span><\/strong> Consecutive days the S&amp;P has closed in the red; its longest losing streak since Nov. 2016, its worst month since Feb. 2009, and its worst week since Oct. 2008.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>7<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Consecutive down days for the Dow; its longest losing streak since June 2018, its worst month since Feb. 2009, and its worst week since Oct. 2008.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$780,000,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The market cap decline of the so-called &#8220;MAGA&#8221; stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon) over the last seven days.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$5,000,000,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Reduction in the global stocks&#8217; market cap over the last seven days.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>11<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Number of years since bank stocks saw such a large weekly decline. (March 2009)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-21%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Decline in airline stocks this week; the worst performance since March 2009.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>39<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Basis point decline in 2-year Treasury note; that&#8217;s the biggest yield drop since Nov. 2008.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-6.0%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Silver&#8217;s decline for Feb 2020; that&#8217;s its worst monthly performance since May 2016.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-3.6%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Gold&#8217;s decline on Friday; that was its worst day since June 2013.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-11.0%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Bitcoin&#8217;s decline for the week.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/corona-crash-sparks-worst-month-stocks-financial-crisis-fastest-correction-history\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Zero Hedge<\/a><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"310\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Results<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Do you have a bumper sticker on any car you own?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>No (86%)<\/li>\n<li>Yes (14%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 2000 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to this week&#8217;s poll and it turns out that 1 in 7 of them have a bumper sticker on at least one of their vehicles. When I&#8217;m driving, it seems like I see more than that. As for yours truly, I&#8217;ve never had a bumper sticker on any of my vehicles; I have, however, had a couple of cars with window stickers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>This Week&#8217;s Sponsor: File Taxes Online with H&amp;R Block!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Thank you to those who have been supporting my website by taking advantage of the H&amp;R Block offer below.<\/p>\n<p>You can file taxes from anywhere online with Block by your side. H&amp;R Block is a leading global consumer tax services provider with over 60 years of tax experience. You can get <strong>25% off<\/strong> by simply clicking on the banner below.<\/p>\n<p>H&amp;R Block makes filing your taxes easy!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pubtrack.co\/92QLN22\/66RQ8Q\/?creative_id=425\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-59125\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/HR-Block-2020-Save-25-Pct.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"292\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Hey, while you&#8217;re here, please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. <em><strong>Please support this website by patronizing my sponsors!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Thank you!!!!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Facing Reality<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Finding one of her students making faces at others on the playground, Mrs. Smith stopped to gently reprimand the child. Smiling sweetly, the Sunday school teacher said, &#8220;Bobby, when I was a child, I was told that if I made ugly faces, it would freeze and I would stay like that.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Bobby looked up at her and replied, &#8220;Well, Mrs. Smith, you can&#8217;t say you weren&#8217;t warned.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Sharon)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This week I got the following comment from <strong>Nick<\/strong> regarding a review for some <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id59509-a-detailed-review-on-saxotraderpro.html\">foreign exchange currency trading software<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Tried forex trading for a few months. Lost my ass.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">I&#8217;m sorry to hear that &#8212; but I don&#8217;t think you&#8217;ll get much sympathy from folks who were invested in <strong><em>any<\/em><\/strong> market this week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I think it&#8217;s fair to say it has been a pretty tough week for most people&#8217;s investment portfolios [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51224,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-59693","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Red Storm Rising<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id59693-black-coffee-29-feb-2020.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Red Storm Rising\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I think it&#8217;s fair to say it has been a pretty tough week for most people&#8217;s investment portfolios [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id59693-black-coffee-29-feb-2020.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Len Penzo dot Com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-02-29T10:15:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-03-03T13:17:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/hurricane-flags.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"404\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"387\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Len Penzo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta 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