{"id":59417,"date":"2020-02-15T02:15:28","date_gmt":"2020-02-15T10:15:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=59417"},"modified":"2023-05-12T10:37:30","modified_gmt":"2023-05-12T17:37:30","slug":"black-coffee-15-feb-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id59417-black-coffee-15-feb-2020.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Weekend at Bernie&#8217;s"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-23820\" title=\"black coffee\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe<\/em> &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>I hope everybody is enjoying their weekend. We&#8217;ve got a lot to cover this week, so let&#8217;s get right to it, shall we?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Our knowledge is a receding mirage in an expanding desert of ignorance.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Will Durant<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Only those with truth in them will recognize truth. And you must learn to recognize all that is untrue to get the truth.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Suzy Kassem<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? Through last Monday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/just-4-companies-account-67-sp-500s-ytd-returns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">just four companies<\/a> accounted for 67% of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s returns in 2020: Microsoft (28%), Apple (15%), Amazon (13%), and Google (11%). According to Franklin Sanders, &#8220;That means the market is advancing on speculation, not economic grounds. Also think about what gains that size in six weeks means: some buyers are nuts.&#8221; You&#8217;re far too kind, Mr. Sanders &#8212; they&#8217;re <em><strong>all<\/strong><\/em> nuts.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of Microsoft, asset manager Sven Henrich points out that the stock &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/02\/11\/1937\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">has nearly doubled<\/a> since 2019 with a market cap expansion of more than $700 billion, for a total market cap of $1.4 trillion. Historic. And add the top four and their market caps you get this same vertical picture:&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/MAGA?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#MAGA<\/a> ate the stock market&#8230; not that one&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24MSFT&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$MSFT<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24AAPL&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$AAPL<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24GOOGL&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$GOOGL<\/a> &amp; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24AMZN&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$AMZN<\/a> = nearly $5 trillion in market cap or ~17% of the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24SPX&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$SPX<\/a>. Different this time? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vXdEZo3Vs6\">pic.twitter.com\/vXdEZo3Vs6<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Dan Nathan (@RiskReversal) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RiskReversal\/status\/1225820948139560960?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 7, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Apparently, stock market investors are unaware that global air freight markets declined 3.3% last year &#8212; the worst performance since 2009, during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis &#8212; suggesting the global economy is continuing to decelerate. The last time the world saw <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iata.org\/en\/pressroom\/pr\/2020-02-05-01\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">contracting freight volumes<\/a> across an entire year was way back in 2012.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, here on Main Street, the Fed&#8217;s latest quarterly consumer credit report found that aggregate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">household debt increased 1.4%<\/a> last quarter; that puts consumers $193 billion deeper into the red, and $14 trillion overall. Even more disturbing, consumer debt has now increased for 22 consecutive months &#8212; and last month saw the single biggest monthly jump in household debt since before the financial crisis. Uh oh.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> So how did we get here? Well &#8230; after the Fed gradually reduced its balance sheet between January 2018 and September 2019, the market became <a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/02\/13\/autopilot-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">unwilling to absorb additional Fed selling<\/a>; thereby threatening higher interest rates, followed by a sharp stock market decline &#8212; and the obligatory ensuing recession.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Powell: &#8220;There is nothing about this economy that is out of kilter or imbalanced&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Hey Jay, stop bullshitting us. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ZUSlpRZc8Y\">pic.twitter.com\/ZUSlpRZc8Y<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NorthmanTrader\/status\/1227906233887264769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 13, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other words, the primary dealers and big banks no longer have the liquidity to absorb new debt at current rates &#8212; and this is while foreigners are reducing their US debt holdings. The problem is exacerbated because this is occurring just as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.factcheck.org\/2020\/01\/trumps-numbers-january-2020-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">government debt is peaking<\/a>, with the annual deficit for fiscal 2020 on pace to hit $1.1 trillion &#8212; the most since it hit $1.3 trillion in 2011. Don&#8217;t worry; the Fed has everything under control &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3eetROk9veM?controls=0&amp;start=69;end=93\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> This is forcing the Fed to be <em><strong>the<\/strong><\/em> buyer of last resort. Typically, they have the primary dealers buy US Treasuries &#8212; but since the dealers have too many already, they are now selling them <em><strong>back<\/strong><\/em> to the Fed a few days later. And <em><strong>that<\/strong><\/em>, folks, is <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4320860-leave-to-fed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">outright debt monetization<\/a>. The same strategy used by central banks in Weimar Germany back in the 1920s and &#8212; more recently &#8212; Zimbabwe and other banana republics. Imagine that.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Of course, with the National Debt at $23 trillion, and at least $41 trillion more in unfunded liabilities &#8212; but probably much more &#8212; America is now in a place where <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/fed-injects-79bn-liquidity-term-repo-most-oversubscribed-repo-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the Fed is being forced to pick up the slack<\/a>. Eventually the market will pull its head out of the sand and recognize that our debt-based monetary system &#8212; and the dollar-denominated paper wealth propping it up &#8212; is a cruel mirage &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7SOzVOjwNqY?controls=0&amp;start=2;end=137\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> So, when will the mirage disappear? Answer: when confidence finally breaks. And history tells us that confidence eventually breaks with <em><strong>every<\/strong><\/em> fiat-based system. It also tells us that when the current monetary subterfuge is finally revealed, as MN Gordon notes: &#8220;Debts will be paid in full. <a href=\"https:\/\/economicprism.com\/the-triumph-of-madness\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The dollar will go up in smoke<\/a>. And madness of the kind only abstract thinking can forecast will triumph.&#8221; So true &#8230; somebody hold me.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Although few people see it, we have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usdebtclock.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a dead monetary system<\/a> incapable of determining legitimate prices. But eventually that rotting corpse will capture enough attention that the fragile veneer of confidence holding everything together will finally give way. Then reality will return with a vengeance. Assets will readjust to a fraction of their current value. Most people will lose their life savings. And the politicians and bankers will say they never saw it coming.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>When it comes to the best investments over the past decade, here are the top five performing large-company stocks for the period between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019. How many of these were in your portfolio?<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3018%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> MarketAxess (MKTX); an electronic bond trading platform that aims to make the process easier and more equitable for buyers and traders.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3207%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> LendingTree (TREE) is a loan marketplace for everything from mortgages to student loans and small business loans.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3208%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) has two approved products: Ingrezza, for tremors in patients with long-term use of anti-psychotics; and Orlissa, designed to treat pain associated with endometriosis.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3909%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Netflix (NFLX) is the king of streaming television and movies.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3961%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Domino&#8217;s Pizza (DPZ) was foundering at the end of 2009, both in sales and customer satisfaction. In fact, a national consumer-taste survey put its pie in a tie for dead last with Chuck E. Cheese. So Domino&#8217;s revamped their recipe, which set the stage for a decade of out-performance unmatched by the rest of the Russell 1000.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kiplinger.com\/slideshow\/investing\/T018-S001-20-dividend-stocks-to-fund-20-years-of-retirement\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kiplinger<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"308\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Will you do your own taxes this year or hire a professional?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I&#8217;ll do my own. (62%)<\/li>\n<li>I&#8217;ll let a pro handle them. (35%)<\/li>\n<li>I&#8217;m not filing a return. (3%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1800 Len Penzo dot Com readers answered last week&#8217;s poll question and it turns out that slightly more than one in three will let a professional do their taxes for them this year. That is close to the national average of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gobankingrates.com\/taxes\/filing\/43-percent-americans-file-taxes-comfort-home-survey-finds\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">roughly 37%<\/a>. As for me, I&#8217;ve been filing them online from the comfort of my home for many years now. If your taxes are relatively simple, I think it&#8217;s the only way to fly!<\/p>\n<p>If you have a question you&#8217;d like to see featured here, please send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>This Week&#8217;s Sponsor: File Taxes Online with H&amp;R Block!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tax time is here. The good news is you can file taxes from anywhere with Block by your side. H&amp;R Block is a leading global consumer tax services provider with over 60 years of tax experience. You can get <strong>25% off<\/strong> when filing online by simply clicking on the banner below.<\/p>\n<p>H&amp;R Block makes filing your taxes easy!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pubtrack.co\/92QLN22\/66RQ8Q\/?creative_id=425\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-59125\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/HR-Block-2020-Save-25-Pct.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"292\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Pet Shop Parrot<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A lady was walking past a pet store when a parrot said, &#8220;Hey, lady! You&#8217;re really ugly!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The lady was furious, but continued on her way. On her way home, she passed by the pet store again and the parrot again said, &#8220;Hey, lady! You&#8217;re really ugly!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>This made her especially mad, so she went into the store and told the owner that she was going to sue the store and kill the bird. But the owner apologized profusely and promised he would make sure the parrot never insulted her again.<\/p>\n<p>The next day, the woman decided to see if the pet shop owner would be true to his word, so she deliberately passed by the store to test the parrot. Sure enough, the bird called out, &#8220;Hey, lady!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Yes?&#8221; she answered.<\/p>\n<p>The parrot replied, &#8220;<strong><em>Yoooou<\/em><\/strong> know.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Sam I Am)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five Canadian provinces and territories in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. Alberta (1.90 pages\/visit)<br \/>\n2. Manitoba (1.81)<br \/>\n3. Northwest Territories (1.75)<br \/>\n4. British Columbia (1.72)<br \/>\n5. Nova Scotia (1.67)<\/p>\n<p>9. Yukon Territory (1.33)<br \/>\n10. Newfoundland &amp; Labrador (1.31)<br \/>\n11. New Brunswick (1.29)<br \/>\n12. Nunavut (1.25)<br \/>\n13. Saskatchewan (1.00)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like those crazy canucks in Alberta, eh &#8230;) &#8212; or not (ahem, all you hosers living on the frozen Saskatchewan tundra) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. <em><strong>Please support this website by patronizing my sponsors!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Thank you!!!! &#x1f60a;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>P. Ouellette<\/strong> left this comment on my article explaining <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id16567-15-reasons-why-waterbeds-are-for-suckers.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">why waterbeds are for suckers<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Not to jinx us but we&#8217;ve had no leaks in 20 years. Although he did jump on it one time too many and the bed let go, but the bladder stayed strong. We got a couple of screws in to hold the bed together. We still laugh at that one.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Heh. Nope &#8230; I&#8217;m not going to go there.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: (coffee) brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I hope everybody is enjoying their weekend. We&#8217;ve got a lot to cover this week, so let&#8217;s get [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-59417","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Weekend at Bernie&#039;s<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id59417-black-coffee-15-feb-2020.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Weekend at Bernie&#039;s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I hope everybody is enjoying their weekend. 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