{"id":59322,"date":"2020-02-08T02:15:09","date_gmt":"2020-02-08T10:15:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=59322"},"modified":"2020-02-11T15:22:40","modified_gmt":"2020-02-11T23:22:40","slug":"black-coffee-8-feb-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id59322-black-coffee-8-feb-2020.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: The Kingdom of the Blind"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31075\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-31075 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"black coffee\" width=\"275\" height=\"206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-50x38.jpg 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px\" \/><\/a><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Ludwig Von Mises<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>The hardest thing to explain is the glaringly evident, which everybody has decided not to see.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Ayn Rand<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Well &#8230; the <a href=\"https:\/\/arstechnica.com\/cars\/2020\/02\/tesla-stock-gains-almost-20-percent-for-second-day-in-a-row\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tesla clown show<\/a> continues. Last Monday, Tesla&#8217;s stock price rose 14%. By Tuesday, it was up <em><strong>another<\/strong><\/em> 24% to close at $969 &#8212; a 129% gain since the new year started just five short weeks ago. Keep in mind that Tesla&#8217;s 2019 revenues were a paltry 2.2% &#8212; and they reported a net loss of $862 million. Oh, yeah &#8230; did I mention that Tesla has lost money <em><strong>every year<\/strong><\/em> since 2008 when it began reporting results? <a href=\"https:\/\/thenextweb.com\/hardfork\/2020\/01\/30\/tesla-posts-first-annual-profit-still-loses-862m\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">It&#8217;s true<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On the other hand, it&#8217;s not <em><strong>all<\/strong><\/em> unicorns and rainbows. The stock price of credit-card issuer Discover plunged 11.1% last Friday &#8212; despite beating earnings estimates. According to Dave Kranzler, &#8220;the dagger was Discover&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/investmentresearchdynamics.com\/printed-money-blowing-the-bubbles-even-bigger\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">loan charge-offs<\/a>, which jumped to 4% of the outstanding balance; that&#8217;s the highest rate since it peaked at 5% during the financial crisis.&#8221; Hey &#8230; you can&#8217;t win &#8217;em all:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/6rtYfx1-FS4?controls=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, German banks are now holding triple the amount of cash they had on hand in May 2014; that&#8217;s when the ECB went to negative interest rates &#8212; a de facto tax on deposits &#8212; thereby increasing pressure on those already-beleaguered institutions. In fact, German banks have been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-01-31\/german-banks-are-hoarding-so-many-euros-they-need-more-vaults\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">stuffing their vaults<\/a> with so many euro notes that they&#8217;re actively searching for additional storage facilities. Attention German bankers: I have a spare closet available. Maybe two.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Although the central banks won&#8217;t admit it, those negative rates are why debt has displaced savings as the primary means of economic advancement. Unfortunately, as you can see below, since 2008, new debt has provided a rapidly diminishing economic &#8220;kick&#8221; before taking on its long-term role as an economic millstone that gets heavier by the day. Even worse, since 2015 each dollar of new debt has actually resulted in <em><strong>less<\/strong><\/em> than a dollar of new GDP:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-59351\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Debt-to-GDP-Growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"532\" height=\"277\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Debt-to-GDP-Growth.jpg 717w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Debt-to-GDP-Growth-300x156.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 532px) 100vw, 532px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> So mathematically, it&#8217;s &#8220;game over&#8221; for the current monetary system. One investment strategist summed up the central bankers&#8217; refusal to admit defeat &#8212; while encouraging even <em><strong>more<\/strong><\/em> debt &#8212; with <a href=\"https:\/\/convex-strategies.com\/2020\/01\/26\/risk-update-december-2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a Snickers bar analogy<\/a>. To wit: Only an undiscerning doctor would think his Snickers bar prescription &#8212; intended to increase his patient&#8217;s energy &#8212; has nothing to do with the subject&#8217;s follow-on weight gain and subsequent growing malaise.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of denial, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the value of a new vehicle rose by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmoney.com\/research\/goldmoney-insights\/irrational-fears-of-deflation\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">only 0.6%<\/a> since 1997. No, really. Even though the average price of a new car rose 124%, from $16,400 to $36,718. And now you know why Shadowstats and the <a href=\"https:\/\/chapwoodindex.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Chapwood Index<\/a> say annual price inflation is running at roughly 10%, even though the government consistently reports it to be under 2%.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> As Alasdair Macleod notes, those phony inflation statistics give <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmoney.com\/research\/goldmoney-insights\/estimating-the-shape-of-the-coming-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the illusion that real GDP is positive<\/a> when, in reality, if it were properly adjusted for price inflation it would be negative. Of course, the government has a strong incentive to hide the inflation because, since the advent of the Fed in 1913, the US dollar has lost nearly 99% of its purchasing power relative to gold. Oh &#8230; and if you think <strong><em>that&#8217;s<\/em><\/strong> a sneaky monetary trick, check this out:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/413QFMiSBkI?controls=0&amp;start=40;end=117\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> The financial subterfuge hasn&#8217;t affected Americans&#8217; mood regarding their current finances &#8212; at least if the latest Gallup poll is any indication. It shows that Americans&#8217; views on their personal financial situation are now <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/284264\/record-high-optimism-personal-finances.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">at or near record highs<\/a>. In fact, 59% of Americans now say they&#8217;re better off financially than they were a year ago &#8212; that&#8217;s up from 50% last year. Hooray!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, those Americans who say they&#8217;re better off financially than they were a year ago surpassed the previous all-time high of 58% in January 1999. What&#8217;s more, three in four US adults predict they&#8217;ll be better off financially a year from now &#8212; and <em><strong>that<\/strong><\/em> is the highest satisfaction rate since 1977.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Then again, as Zero Hedge warns, the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;ongoing problems with the repo market means that the liquidity crisis that&#8217;s clogged up critical plumbing within the US financial system &#8212; and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/another-massively-oversubscribed-term-repo-confirms-persisting-liquidity-woes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">continues to percolate<\/a> just below the surface &#8212; is getting worse, not better.&#8221; Sadly, the Fed is eventually going to lose control and a financial crisis will bubble to the surface that will cause most Americans to reassess their financial situation, albeit in a much dimmer light.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How much money do you think you&#8217;ll need to retire comfortably?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>More than $2 million (34%)<\/li>\n<li>$1 million to $2 million (29%)<\/li>\n<li>$500,000 to $999,999 (27%)<\/li>\n<li>Less than $500,000 (10%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 2000 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week&#8217;s question and it turns out that 5 in 8 of them believe they&#8217;ll need at least $1 million to retire comfortably. Frankly, that number depends on a lot of personal factors. For example, <a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/everything-you-are-being-told-about-saving-investing-is-wrong-part-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">according to Lance Roberts<\/a> at Real Investment Advice, someone just starting their working career who wants to retire comfortably in 30 years with the equivalent income of $60,000 in today&#8217;s dollars would need to save $2.85 million over that time frame in order to account for inflation and taxes.<\/p>\n<p>If you have a question you&#8217;d like me to ask the readers here, send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[poll id=&#8221;307&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If you plan on watching the 92nd Academy Awards this week, here are some numbers to keep in mind while you&#8217;re being lectured by the social justice warriors who are lucky enough to get on stage:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$72,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The cost to run an ad on page one of <em>The Hollywood Reporter<\/em> during Oscar season.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$105,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The price a couple will pay to attend the Vanity Fair after-party.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$215,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The value of this year&#8217;s gift bags, which are delivered in multiple suitcases to Oscar nominees before the ceremony. Among other items, the gifts include an Antarctic cruise, and $25,000 worth of cosmetic treatments, rejuvenation procedures, lip fillers and chemical peels.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$1,500,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The cost to get the average actress camera-ready for her walk down the red carpet.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$10,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Amount to get an A-list actress camera-ready for the red carpet.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$18,100,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The cost it took to get Cate Blanchett camera-ready for <strong><em>her<\/em><\/strong> walk down the red carpet in 2014; yes, that&#8217;s the most expensive in Oscars history.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$100,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Amount Hollywood spends on award season lobbying.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/danafeldman\/2020\/02\/04\/oscars-2020-by-the-numbers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forbes<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: The Sausage King<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A man went into a store and asked the clerk behind the counter for five pounds of Polish sausage.<\/p>\n<p>The clerk looked at him and asked, &#8220;Are you Polish?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The guy, clearly offended said, &#8220;As a matter of fact, I am &#8212; but let me ask you something. If I asked you for some Italian sausage, would you ask if I was Italian? Or, if I asked for German bratwurst, would you ask if I was German? Or if I asked you for a kosher hot dog, would you ask if I was Jewish? Or, if I asked you for a taco, would you ask if I was Mexican? Well? Would you?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The clerk nervously looked away from the customer he so clearly offended and said, &#8220;Well &#8230; no.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Not satisfied, the offended man decided to drive his point home. &#8220;Well, all right then!&#8221; he said. &#8220;So why would you ask me if I&#8217;m Polish simply because I asked for Polish sausage?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The clerk said, &#8220;Because this is Macy&#8217;s.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Johnny J.)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>This Week&#8217;s Sponsor: File Taxes Online with H&amp;R Block!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tax time is here. The good news is you can file taxes from anywhere with Block by your side. H&amp;R Block is a leading global consumer tax services provider with over 60 years of tax experience. You can get <strong>25% off<\/strong> when filing online by simply clicking on the banner below.<\/p>\n<p>H&amp;R Block makes filing your taxes easy!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pubtrack.co\/92QLN22\/66RQ8Q\/?creative_id=425\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-59125\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/HR-Block-2020-Save-25-Pct.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"292\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five states in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. Alaska (2.23 pages\/visit)<br \/>\n2. Maine (2.06)<br \/>\n3. North Dakota (2.03)<br \/>\n4. Connecticut (1.87)<br \/>\n5. Kentucky (1.82)<\/p>\n<p>46. West Virginia (1.20)<br \/>\n47. Rhode Island (1.18)<br \/>\n48. Montana (1.17)<br \/>\n49. South Dakota (1.13)<br \/>\n50. Illinois (1.09)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like my friends living on the frozen Alaska tundra) &#8212; or not (ahem, Illinois) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. <em><strong>Please support this website by patronizing my sponsors!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Thank you!!!! &#128522;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">(The Best of)<\/span> Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Christina<\/strong> wrote in after reading my post explaining why people who <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id1283-if-you-cant-live-on-40000-per-year-its-your-own-fault.html\">can&#8217;t live on $40,000<\/a> per year have nobody to blame but themselves:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Len, I have a small problem with this post.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Uh huh &#8230; Get in line, Christina.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-59322","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: The Kingdom of the Blind<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id59322-black-coffee-8-feb-2020.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: The Kingdom of the Blind\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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