{"id":57700,"date":"2019-11-09T02:15:20","date_gmt":"2019-11-09T10:15:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=57700"},"modified":"2019-11-12T05:55:04","modified_gmt":"2019-11-12T13:55:04","slug":"black-coffee-9-nov-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id57700-black-coffee-9-nov-2019.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: The Chorus of Cassandras Continues to Grow"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31075\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-31075 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"black coffee\" width=\"275\" height=\"206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-50x38.jpg 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px\" \/><\/a><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend! In the meantime, why don&#8217;t we get this show on the road? Then I can start mine &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; George Orwell<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8216;How did you go bankrupt?&#8217; Bill asked.<br \/>\n&#8216;Two ways,&#8217; Mike said. &#8216;Gradually, then suddenly.&#8217;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; from Ernest Hemingway&#8217;s <em>The Sun Also Rises<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? This week billionaire investor Ray Dalio proclaimed that &#8220;the world has gone mad and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/world-has-gone-mad-system-broken-ray-dalio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the system is broken<\/a>.&#8221; He warned that, negative interest rates, woefully insolvent pension funds, and the growing wealth gap between the rich and poor &#8220;are unsustainable and can no longer be pushed as it has been since 2008. &#8221; As a result, he believes that &#8220;the world is approaching a big paradigm shift.&#8221; It certainly is, Ray.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of insolvent pension funds &#8230; nowhere is the absurdity of <a href=\"https:\/\/wirepoints.org\/chicago-teachers-strike-why-is-no-one-talking-about-pensions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">gold-plated government pensions<\/a> across America more apparent than Chicago where, according to Wirepoints, the average recently-retired Chicago Public School teacher gets to retire at age 61 and collect $2.2 million in benefits over her lifetime &#8212; despite contributing just $35,500 over 30 years. Oh &#8230; and those pensions are guaranteed by the taxpayers &#8212; most of whom have <em><strong>no<\/strong><\/em> pensions of their own.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> To put it another way, on average, Chicago public school teachers receive <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chicagotribune.com\/investigations\/ct-chicago-city-pension-fund-growth-20191003-tdb6ah5u6vdk7gh3zrn6p65wgu-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a $72,000 annual pension<\/a> and begin drawing benefits at age 61. In comparison, the average annual Social Security payment in Chicago is just $16,000 and the <em><strong>maximum<\/strong><\/em> benefit for someone retiring at age 62 is $26,500. Meanwhile, the Chicago teachers&#8217; pension fund <em><strong>is less than 23% funded<\/strong><\/em>. Yeah &#8230; this won&#8217;t end well.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Hey &#8230; here&#8217;s something else that won&#8217;t end well: Bloomberg is reporting that bitcoin&#8217;s historic price increase in 2017 from $750 to $19,783 was entirely due to manipulation. According to the report, &#8220;a Texas academic says <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-11-04\/lone-bitcoin-whale-likely-fueled-2017-price-surge-study-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a single market whale<\/a> was likely behind the misconduct, seemingly with the power to move prices at will.&#8221; Even so, the people who got in on the ground floor are pretty happy. Er &#8230; at least I <em><strong>think<\/strong><\/em> they are:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XmMQAuO62gI?controls=0&amp;start=0;end=167\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, last week Zero Hedge shared a chart that shows why the Fed is hopelessly trapped and doing everything in its power to make sure its monetary policy keeps Wall Street happy &#8212; even if that poses a long-term threat to Main Street and the stability of the US dollar:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Here&#8217;s why the stock market can never crash or the US will slide into a historic depression: financial assets are now 5.6x GDP <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IM0DuhY4rU\">pic.twitter.com\/IM0DuhY4rU<\/a><\/p>\n<p>zerohedge (@zerohedge) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/1189919094331588608?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 31, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Investment firm CEO, Jeff Gundlach, says high stock valuations &#8212; along with government debt, and low interest rates &#8212; are &#8220;already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fuw.ch\/article\/gundlach-us-equities-will-lose-the-most\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">beyond the point of sustainability<\/a>. And when the downturn comes, there will be a lot of anger and unrest.&#8221; Gundlach says <em><strong>that<\/strong><\/em> will lead to helicopter money in the form of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/modern-monetary-theory-mmt-4588060\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MMT<\/a> as a final act of desperation to save the system. Of course, all it will do is add fuel to the fire.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> As Bill Holter reminds us, near-zero rates and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/q\/quantitative-easing.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">quantitative easing<\/a> (QE) were deemed as &#8217;emergency measures&#8217; way back in 2008 &#8212; but they&#8217;re <em><strong>still<\/strong><\/em> in place today. &#8220;Why,&#8221; he asks, &#8220;if everything is humming along, do the economy and financial markets still need emergency measures 24\/7?&#8221; The answer, he says, is &#8220;Because everything is not okay, and absolutely <em><strong>nothing<\/strong><\/em> was ever fixed!&#8221; Preach it, Bill! By the way, here&#8217;s something else that needs to be fixed:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cHwFT6c0rQc?controls=0&amp;start=91;end=106\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> In fact, Holter notes that the central banks&#8217; emergency measures have not only been in place for more than a decade now &#8212; but &#8220;they&#8217;re actually increasing! But the powers-that-be don&#8217;t want you to understand this because then you&#8217;d be peering behind the curtain.&#8221; In reality, Holter says the collapse of our fraudulent debt-based financial system &#8220;isn&#8217;t a future event &#8212; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jsmineset.com\/2019\/11\/04\/were-already-in-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">it&#8217;s happening now<\/a> before your eyes.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> The trouble is, once the dollar&#8217;s anchor to gold was broken in 1971, it unshackled the Fed&#8217;s restraints on monetary and credit expansion. Unfortunately, as we&#8217;re now witnessing, that unlimited credit eventually replaces random market action. And over time, the abundance of cheap credit becomes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmoney.com\/research\/goldmoney-insights\/the-monetary-lessons-from-germany\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">increasingly destabilizing<\/a> as system distortions grow because they aren&#8217;t allowed to correct when crises arise.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Yes, it&#8217;s easy to dismiss the rapidly-growing chorus of those who are intimating that a currency crisis is coming &#8212; and by extension, a reduction in Americans&#8217; artifically-high living standard. But now former Bank of England head, Mervyn King, is on the list too. He warned last month that, &#8220;By sticking to the new orthodoxy of monetary policy and pretending the banking system is safe, we&#8217;re <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/economists-and-policy-makers-are-sleepwalking-toward-next-financial-crisis-mervyn-king-says-2019-10-21\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sleepwalking toward a crisis<\/a>.&#8221; Uh oh.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Financial analyst Dave Kranzler says King is warning that the global financial system is headed for a crisis that the usual currency printing &#8220;fix&#8221; won&#8217;t be able to stop. More importantly, he notes that, &#8220;While it&#8217;s obvious that <a href=\"http:\/\/investmentresearchdynamics.com\/sleepwalking-toward-a-crisis-got-gold\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a disaster waits<\/a> on the horizon, when the former head of a big central bank delivers a message like that instead of Orwellian gobbledygook, the world should pay heed.&#8221; Yes it should &#8212; and so should you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top 10 cities in <em>Forbes<\/em>&#8216; 21st annual ranking of the 200 smallest metropolitan areas in America judged to have the best business climate in 2020:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>10<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Daphne, AL (population: 218,000)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>9<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Winchester, VA (pop: 139,800)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>8<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Ames, IA (pop: 98,100)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>7<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Bend, OR (pop: 192,000)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>6<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Athens, GA (pop: 211,300)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>5<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Ithaca, NY (pop: 102,800)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>4<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Logan, UT (pop: 140,800)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Bellingham, WA (pop: 225,700)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>2<\/strong><\/span><\/span> College Station, TX (pop: 262,400)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Sioux Falls, SD (pop: 265,700)<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/best-places-for-business\/list\/small\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Forbes<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[poll id=&#8221;293&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How many Halloween trick-or-treaters stopped by your house this year?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Less than 25 (77%)<\/li>\n<li>25 to 100 (18%)<\/li>\n<li>More than 100 (5%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1700 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week&#8217;s question and it turns out that 1 in 20 had more than 100 kids come to their door for Halloween. Wow. For the record, the Penzo house gave out candy to 33 trick-or-treaters &#8212; which means the Honeybee and I happily split the remaining 117 pieces of candy between the two of us. Hooray!<\/p>\n<p>If <strong><em>you<\/em><\/strong> have a question you&#8217;d like me to ask the readers here, send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Silly Rabbit<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A lady opened her refrigerator and saw a rabbit sitting on one of the shelves.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What are you doing in there?&#8221; she asked.<\/p>\n<p>The rabbit replied, &#8220;This is a Westinghouse, isn&#8217;t it?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Yes,&#8221; said the lady.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Well,&#8221; the rabbit said, &#8220;I&#8217;m westing.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Susan)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five states in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. Vermont (1.86 pages\/visit)<br \/>\n2. West Virginia (1.85)<br \/>\n3. Idaho (1.78)<br \/>\n4. North Dakota (1.69)<br \/>\n5. Oklahoma (1.61)<\/p>\n<p>46. Utah (1.26)<br \/>\n47. Oregon (1.24)<br \/>\n48. New Mexico (1.22)<br \/>\n49. Alaska (1.15)<br \/>\n50. Montana (1.14)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like my friends in Vermont) &#8212; or not (ahem, Montana) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. Consider becoming a <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/membership-account\">Len Penzo dot Com Insider<\/a>! Thank you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After reading a recent article here on <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id33034-14-ways-to-help-prepare-your-kid-for-the-real-world-2.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">how to prepare your kids for the real world<\/a>, <b>Roger<\/b> left this note:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Unless we&#8217;re discussing a reasonable mortgage to purchase a home, <\/em><em>I&#8217;m teaching my kids to avoid debt at all costs (pun intended).<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Easy there, Roger &#8230; I&#8217;m the guy who is supposed to do all of the jokes around here.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend! In the meantime, why don&#8217;t we get this show on the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-57700","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: The Chorus of Cassandras Continues to Grow<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id57700-black-coffee-9-nov-2019.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: The Chorus of Cassandras Continues to Grow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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