{"id":56372,"date":"2019-08-17T02:15:06","date_gmt":"2019-08-17T09:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=56372"},"modified":"2023-06-02T17:36:29","modified_gmt":"2023-06-03T00:36:29","slug":"black-coffee-17-aug-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id56372-black-coffee-17-aug-2019.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: The Monetary Magic Show Continues"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-23820\" title=\"black coffee\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe<\/em> &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>I hope everybody is having a nice relaxing weekend. I know I am! Okay, away we go &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>It&#8217;s all bullshit. Ninety percent of the American people have little or no net worth. I create nothing I own. We make the rules, Buddy; the news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the cost of a paper clip. We pull the rabbit out of the hat while everybody else sits around their whole life wondering how we did it.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Gordon Gecko, <em>Wall St.<\/em> (1987)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Bankruptcy petitions for US consumers and businesses are climbing sharply; they&#8217;re <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/more-people-filed-for-bankruptcy-per-capita-in-these-5-states-in-july-and-there-was-a-5-increase-nationwide-2019-08-06\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">up 5% from the previous month<\/a> alone. In case you&#8217;re wondering, Alabama had the highest rate per capita with 5.6 filings per 1000 people, followed by Tennessee (5.4), Georgia (4.3), Mississippi (4.2) and Nevada (3.8). Then again, I&#8217;m sure that&#8217;s just a statistical blip. After all &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">The Economy is the BEST IT HAS EVER BEEN! Even much of the Fake News is giving me credit for that!<\/p>\n<p>Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/1146023450001231872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 2, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Stop me if you&#8217;ve heard this before: US <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-mortgage-debt-hits-record-eclipsing-2008-peak-11565708431\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">mortgage debt hit an all-time high<\/a> this week, eclipsing the previous peak reached during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. One reason for the surge in mortgage debt is an increase in homeowner refinancings being used to tap significant home equity that has accrued during the current housing market bubble. I guess people have short memories.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> I&#8217;ll bet excessive mortgage debt is why Rabobank&#8217;s recession probability model now says <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-09\/one-banks-recession-odds-just-hit-all-time-high-expects-rates-0-dec-2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">there&#8217;s an 81% chance of a US recession next year<\/a>. That figure is higher than the recession odds the model spit out prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and during the 2007 housing bubble. Oh, yes &#8230; the model also suggests that the next US downturn will be <em><strong>worse<\/strong><\/em> than the Global Financial Crisis. Uh oh.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of mortgage debt, I see a large bank in Denmark is now <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-08-10\/denmarks-3rd-largest-bank-now-paying-people-take-out-mortgage\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">offering a 10-year negative 0.5% interest rate mortgage<\/a>. In essence, they&#8217;re effectively paying their customers to borrow cash. Best of all, no mortgage payment is due until the payoff date; so the borrower only has to repay principal, with a small discount. In other words: <em><strong>the bank loses money on the loan<\/strong><\/em>. Abracadabra! It&#8217;s magic!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Hey &#8230; Denmark isn&#8217;t the only place with insane bankers; Chase Bank is forgiving <em><strong>all<\/strong><\/em> outstanding credit card debt from its Canadian customers. No, really. One 24 year-old <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><del>deadbeat<\/del><\/span> university student who hadn&#8217;t made a credit card payment in five years told YahooFinance that, &#8220;It&#8217;s kind of like <a href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/flabbergasted-chase-bank-forgives-credit-130519230.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">I&#8217;m being rewarded<\/a> for my irresponsibility.&#8221; Good God! Kind of? <em><strong>Kind<\/strong><\/em> of? No &#8230; it&#8217;s <em><strong>precisely<\/strong><\/em> like that!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, Argentina&#8217;s stock market plunged 48% on Monday, after a socialist politician received a strong showing in the country&#8217;s presidential primary election the day before. Not surprisingly, that&#8217;s the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-08-12\/argentina-s-46-stock-rout-second-biggest-in-past-70-years\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">second-biggest single-day stock exchange decline ever<\/a>; surpassed only by a 60% tumble in the Sri Lankan bourse in 1989. Ouch. Of course, I don&#8217;t worry about devastating market losses because all of <em><strong>my<\/strong><\/em> investments are professionally managed:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-ZBNdszL3iA\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> As if Argentina didn&#8217;t have enough troubles, its currency <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/argentina-peso-collapse\/argentine-peso-collapses-30-3-to-record-65-per-u-s-dollar-traders-idUSE6N20800N\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fell 30% this week<\/a> too &#8212; and Morgan Stanley expects the peso to fall <em><strong>another<\/strong><\/em> 20%. Can you imagine the US dollar losing half its purchasing power in short order? That had Franklin Sanders observing that, &#8220;The US, with its central bank, fiat currency, and debt, is no different than Argentina.&#8221; True &#8230; but that won&#8217;t become apparent until the buck loses its reserve currency status.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On a related note, this week <em><strong>another<\/strong><\/em> $1 trillion of negative-yielding global debt was issued worldwide &#8212; making it a cool $2 trillion in less than two weeks. <em><strong>That<\/strong><\/em> prompted financial analyst Luke Gromen to ask this intriguing question:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Have you ever seen people running into a burning building for safety?<\/p>\n<p>You have now. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3W13b6u7O6\">pic.twitter.com\/3W13b6u7O6<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LukeGromen\/status\/1162069708675436545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 15, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Bill Holter certainly sees the financial lunacy before him: &#8220;If $16 trillion in negative yielding bonds <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jsmineset.com\/2019\/08\/09\/all-bets-are-off\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">isn&#8217;t insane enough<\/a>, hundreds of billions in (corporate) junk debt are also trading with negative yields. Think this through; if you&#8217;re offered a negative rate bond from a (dubious) issuer, and your other option is gold or silver, which do you choose?&#8221; Pro Tip: It&#8217;s probably best if you don&#8217;t ask a college student:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/yRZZpk_9k8E?controls=0&amp;start=17;end=80\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Oops. This just in &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">SWEDEN&#8217;S 20-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS BELOW 0% FOR FIRST TIME, ENTIRE SWEDISH YIELD CURVE NOW NEGATIVE<\/p>\n<p>There was a record $16.7 trillion in negative debt. Make it $17+ trillion <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CkM12EKNHs\">pic.twitter.com\/CkM12EKNHs<\/a><\/p>\n<p>zerohedge (@zerohedge) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/1162333303342555137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 16, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Sven Henrich is still marveling at the central banks&#8217; recent spate of interest rate cuts: &#8220;Cuts this late in the cycle aren&#8217;t a sign of effective stimulus &#8212; <a href=\"https:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/warning-a-major-sign-of-fear-plus-a-surprising-look-at-gold-gold-stocks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">they&#8217;re a sign of fear<\/a>. The fact that the ECB, ten years after the financial crisis, can&#8217;t even raise rates to <em><strong>zero<\/strong><\/em> without risking a system collapse is beyond embarrassing and reflects how weak the financial system actually is. They&#8217;re barely keeping it together.&#8221; <em><strong>I&#8217;ll<\/strong><\/em> say!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, with all the financial turmoil going on, Mr. Henrich had a question of his own this week:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Unemployment looks to be the last shoe to drop.<br \/>\nOnce that changes direction everything else will fall apart.<br \/>\nThe bond market is screaming.<br \/>\nIs anybody listening? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/q8ojOc55oR\">pic.twitter.com\/q8ojOc55oR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NorthmanTrader\/status\/1160227356461666306?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 10, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, the combined debt of the US, China, Japan and Germany increased <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.evergreengavekal.com\/debt-end\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ten times faster<\/a> than their economies grew last year &#8212; and yet this excludes off-balance sheet entitlement programs such as Social Security. Unfortunately, our debt-based international monetary system will implode unless the debt increases exponentially &#8212; so the amount of red ink is only going to grow faster with each passing day.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> As financial analyst David Robertson notes, &#8220;Much of what&#8217;s happened with monetary and fiscal policy the last 50 years has ultimately been an effort to <a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/dollars-nonsense-part-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">cope with unaffordable entitlements<\/a>. The rapid increase in debt are desperate attempts to forestall the inevitable reckoning.&#8221; A reckoning that the crazy negative-yielding bond markets seem to be suggesting may not be too far away.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/central-bankers-pigs.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-56385\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/central-bankers-pigs.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"530\" height=\"330\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/central-bankers-pigs.jpg 800w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/central-bankers-pigs-300x187.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/central-bankers-pigs-768x478.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 530px) 100vw, 530px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On August 14th, Social Security celebrated its 84th birthday. Here&#8217;s some additional data on the program:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1937<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Year that the first Social Security taxes were collected.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>4<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Number of years that Social Security gave out one-time lump-sum payments to some beneficiaries. (1937 &#8211; 1940)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$58.06<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The average Social Security lump sum payment made between 1937 and 1940.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$22.54<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Amount of the first monthly payment ever made; it belonged to Ida May Fuller who retired in 1939 and lived to be 100.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>25%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Reduction in monthly benefits for those who begin collecting Social Security at age 62.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>32%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Additional monthly benefit <strong><em>increase<\/em><\/strong> for those who wait to collect until age 70.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$1461<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The average monthly Social Security benefit in 2019 for all retired workers.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$2861<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The maximum monthly Social Security benefit in 2019.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxbusiness.com\/economy\/social-security-turns-84\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FoxBusiness<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"281\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How much is your average monthly electricity bill during the summer?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>$100 &#8211; $199 (39%)<\/li>\n<li>Less than $100 (31%)<\/li>\n<li>$200 &#8211; $299 (22%)<\/li>\n<li>$300 or more (8%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1600 Len Penzo dot Com readers answered last week&#8217;s survey question and it turns out that 70% of them spend less than $200 a month for electricity during the summertime. On the other hand, 8% typically see bills of $300 or more. For them, it may be time for them to consider buying or leasing solar panels.<\/p>\n<p>If you have a question you&#8217;d like to see featured here, please send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Fine Dining<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The customer in the Italian restaurant was so pleased with his meal that he asked to speak to the chef. So the owner proudly led the happy diner into the kitchen and introduced him to the chef.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Your veal parmigiana was superb,&#8221; the customer said. &#8220;I just spent a month in Italy, and yours is better than any I ever had over there.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Naturally,&#8221; the chef said. &#8220;Over there, they use domestic cheese. Ours is imported.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Cowpoke)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five Canadian provinces and territories in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. New Brunswick (2.50 pages\/visit) <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>!<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n2. Newfoundland &amp; Labrador (2.00)<br \/>\n3. Quebec (1.77)<br \/>\n4. Alberta (1.64)<br \/>\n5. Saskatchewan (1.59)<\/p>\n<p>9. British Columbia (1.41)<br \/>\n10. Manitoba (1.35)<br \/>\n11. Northwest Territories (1.33)<br \/>\n12. Nova Scotia (1.10)<br \/>\n13. Prince Edward Island (1.08)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like those crazy canucks in New Brunswick, eh &#8230;) &#8212; or not (ahem, you hosers living on the frozen Prince Edward Island tundra) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. Consider becoming a <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/membership-account\">Len Penzo dot Com Insider<\/a>! Thank you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After reading my article discussing the ethics of found money, <strong>Cpc<\/strong> left the following comment on Wednesday:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>The cops tell me my husband found $170,000. He says it wasn&#8217;t that much, but that after he realized what it was he was terrified that it was drug money and that the cartel would be looking for him.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Well &#8230; if the cartel isn&#8217;t looking for him, you can bet the IRS will be.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: (coffee) brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I hope everybody is having a nice relaxing weekend. I know I am! Okay, away we go &#8230; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-56372","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: The Monetary Magic Show Continues<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id56372-black-coffee-17-aug-2019.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: The Monetary Magic Show Continues\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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