{"id":54492,"date":"2019-05-04T02:15:40","date_gmt":"2019-05-04T09:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=54492"},"modified":"2023-01-01T10:57:31","modified_gmt":"2023-01-01T18:57:31","slug":"black-coffee-4-may-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id54492-black-coffee-4-may-2019.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Taking Stock of the National Debt"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-23820\" title=\"black coffee\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><\/a><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe<\/em> &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>I hope everybody had a great week! What do you say we get this show on the road? Here we go &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>The difference between playing the stock market and the horses is that one of the horses has to win.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Joey Adams<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Debt is the monster. Debt is what&#8217;s going to eat us up, and that&#8217;s why our economy is on the brink.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8211;Ron Paul<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Things are going to get worse, before they get a lot worse.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Lily Tomlin<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> I have to say that, as a member of the Gen X vanguard, I was both shocked <em><strong>and<\/strong><\/em> disappointed to see that my generation carries <a href=\"https:\/\/www.experian.com\/blogs\/ask-experian\/gen-xers-have-the-highest-average-total-debt-balances\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">more debt than any other<\/a>. With all of the talk about student loan debt, I figured the millennials were a lock for that award.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, California governor Gavin Newsom <a href=\"https:\/\/reason.com\/2019\/04\/24\/california-politicians-hiked-gas-tax-now-demand-investigation-into-states-4-per-gallon-gas-prices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">launched an investigation<\/a> into why his state has the nation&#8217;s highest gas prices. Apparently, the gov forgot that he endorsed a hefty gasoline tax that went into effect last year to &#8220;fight&#8221; climate change. Newsom apparently also forgot that he opposed last year&#8217;s ballot initiative that would have repealed that punitive tax. No, really. And if you think <em><strong>that&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> crazy, check out these loons:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nj_eEGnex8E?controls=0&amp;start=0;end=164;\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, US economic growth in the first quarter <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/04\/26\/gdp-q1-2019-first-read.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">smashed expectations<\/a>, fueled in part by strong inventory building &#8212; $32 billion worth of goods in all. This stockpiling of goods boosted US GDP to a respectable 3.2% annual rate, which was well above most analysts&#8217; predictions. Hooray! &#8230; I think.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> The problem with the latest GDP figure is that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/the-big-mystery-in-the-gdp-report-where-did-the-inventories-come-from-2019-04-26\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">it&#8217;s not obvious<\/a> where these inventories came from. They had to come from somewhere; either produced by domestic firms or physically imported &#8212; but both production and imports <em><strong>fell<\/strong><\/em> last quarter. And consumption didn&#8217;t fall faster than production or imports to generate inventories either &#8212; so the government data is dubious, at best. Heh. Color me shocked.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> As Zero Hedge points out, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-04-28\/fake-growth-exploring-big-mystery-fridays-gdp-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The inventory mystery<\/a> has key outlook implications. If inventory (growth) is real, it might slow production. On the other hand, if it&#8217;s somehow revised away, the second quarter (GDP) might not be as weak as some expect.&#8221; But with the latest corporate reports showing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-04-27\/inventory-burn-from-caterpillar-to-coca-cola-set-to-hit-u-s-gdp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">growing stockpiles<\/a> of everything from appliances and heavy equipment to oil and even <em><strong>soft drinks<\/strong><\/em>, I&#8217;d bet on the former.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of bubbles (see what I did there?) &#8230;. It&#8217;s no secret that the Fed panicked in December, caving to Wall St. and allowing the stock market to balloon again to new heights. As a result, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/this-is-the-year-when-the-federal-reserves-credibility-finally-died-2019-01-31\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">their credibility<\/a> is not only shot, but they&#8217;re also caught in a policy trap and quickly losing control. Imagine that.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> As Sven Henrich graphically illustrates, the stock markets are back to their all-time highs less than four months after <a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2019\/04\/29\/the-fed-is-the-bubble\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the Fed infamously reversed course<\/a> and signaled there would be no more rate hikes until 2020 &#8212; tacitly ceding control of monetary policy to Wall Street in the process. In fact, stocks have been on a relentless skyward trajectory ever since. Yeah &#8230; I&#8217;m sure this is sustainable over the long haul:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"und\">2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KxTZl2BDd4\">pic.twitter.com\/KxTZl2BDd4<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NorthmanTrader\/status\/1122851302432759813?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 29, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On a related note, earlier this year, Venezuela&#8217;s Caracas stock market index was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/kenrapoza\/2019\/02\/05\/believe-it-or-not-venezuela-has-a-stock-market-and-its-been-destroyed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">up 200,000%<\/a>. No, that&#8217;s not a typo. Here&#8217;s the catch: that&#8217;s the return when measured in nearly-worthless bolivars &#8212; not dollars. When a currency hyperinflates, real stock market returns fall, despite skyrocketing nominal values. Last year, the Caracas Stock Index was the world&#8217;s worst market performer in dollar terms, falling 94%. Ouch.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Don&#8217;t think the US dollar is immune from hyperinflation; it&#8217;s not. Especially when you consider that America is fast approaching its &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Minsky_moment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Minsky Moment<\/a>&#8221; when every last cent of public borrowing will be required just to fund National Debt interest. When, you ask? Well &#8230; the US Treasury estimates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-05-01\/minsky-moment-starting-2024-all-us-debt-issuance-will-be-used-pay-interest-debt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the big day arrives in 2024<\/a>. The Fed will then put its printing press into overdrive to cover the tax revenue shortfall.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> This week Hugo Salinas-Price warned that <a href=\"http:\/\/plata.com.mx\/enUS\/More\/375?idioma=2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the US dollar&#8217;s heyday is over<\/a>. He also noted that the, &#8220;The world is moving toward currencies redeemable for stated fixed amounts of gold, which will be, in the future, the determining characteristic of money.&#8221; If it happens, that would be wonderful &#8212; but, sadly, I don&#8217;t think <em><strong>any<\/strong><\/em> government will ever go there, as it would limit their ability to spend cash they don&#8217;t have.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Until then, our dying debt-based monetary system will continue limping along. But as Alasdair Macleod observes, &#8220;It will soon become obvious that the world is caught in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmoney.com\/research\/goldmoney-insights\/the-us-government-debt-crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a debt trap of its own making<\/a>. The folly of post-Keynesian economic and monetary policies designed to justify governments&#8217; economic existence, will be fully exposed. And the days of the dollar and dollar-denominated debt will be numbered.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Just how much euphoria did the Fed pump into the markets after reversing course on normalizing interest rates? Well &#8230; as of last week, here was the year-to-date market performance for several select stocks (via David Rosenberg):<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>+23%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Alphabet (Google)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>+28%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Microsoft<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>+30%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Apple<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>+30%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Amazon<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>+46%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Facebook<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/technically-speaking-a-warning-about-chasing-this-bull-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Real Investment Advice<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"266\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Results<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>What is an appropriate cash gift for a graduating high school senior?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>$51 to $100 (38%)<\/li>\n<li>$26 to $50 (36%)<\/li>\n<li>More than $100 (14%)<\/li>\n<li>$25 or less (12%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1700 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week&#8217;s question and it turns out that their almost evenly split between those who think that an appropriate gift for your typical high school grad should be more than $50 and those who think it should be less than $50.<\/p>\n<p>If you have a question you&#8217;d like to ask the readers here at Len Penzo dot Com, please send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> &#8212; and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Insider Notes: The Fed&#8217;s Math Problem<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Hey! You need to be an Insider to view this article! To join, please click &#8220;Insider Membership&#8221; at the top of my blog page.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: A Trip to the Dentist<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A man went to his dentist&#8217;s office, because something was wrong with his mouth.<\/p>\n<p>After a brief examination, the dentist exclaimed, &#8220;Holy smoke! That plate I installed in your mouth six months ago has nearly completely corroded! What on earth have you been eating?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The man said, &#8220;Well &#8230; the only thing I can think of is this: About four months ago, my wife made me some asparagus with this stuff on it; she said it was Hollandaise sauce. Doc, let me tell you &#8212; it was <strong><em>delicious<\/em>!!<\/strong> I&#8217;ve never tasted anything like it, and ever since then I&#8217;ve been putting that sauce on everything; meat, fish, toast, vegetables &#8212; you name it!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Okay. That&#8217;s probably it,&#8221; replied the dentist. &#8220;Hollandaise sauce is made with lemon juice, which is acidic and highly corrosive. Unfortunately, I&#8217;m going to have to install a new plate &#8212; but this time I&#8217;m going to use one made out of chrome.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Why chrome?&#8221; the man asked.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Well,&#8221; the dentist said, &#8220;Everybody knows that there&#8217;s no plate like chrome for the Hollandaise.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Cowpoke)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Programming note: Unlike most blogs, I&#8217;m always open for the weekend here at Len Penzo dot Com. There&#8217;s a fresh new article waiting for you every Saturday afternoon. At least there should be. If not, somebody call 9-1-1.<\/p>\n<p>Hey! If you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading &#8212; or not &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. Don&#8217;t forget to <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">subscribe via email<\/a> too! Thank you.<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. Consider becoming a <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/membership-account\">Len Penzo dot Com Insider<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After reading my article highlighting the 42 reasons why I&#8217;d never give you a loan, <strong>Blondie<\/strong> left this comment:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>I had a good friend who was going through a divorce who was on the verge of losing her house. I lent her $1000 on the spot and she paid me back with interest. That is very rare.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Obviously, your friend wasn&#8217;t a banker, Blondie &#8212; they only know how to <strong><em>collect<\/em><\/strong> interest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed what you read here, please forward this to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I hope everybody had a great week! What do you say we get this show on the road? [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-54492","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Taking Stock of the National Debt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id54492-black-coffee-4-may-2019.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Taking Stock of the National Debt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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