{"id":52773,"date":"2019-01-12T03:15:41","date_gmt":"2019-01-12T11:15:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=52773"},"modified":"2022-10-05T13:46:33","modified_gmt":"2022-10-05T20:46:33","slug":"black-coffee-12-jan-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id52773-black-coffee-12-jan-2019.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Separating the Sheep from the Goats"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31075\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-31075 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"black coffee\" width=\"275\" height=\"206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-50x38.jpg 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px\" \/><\/a><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s get right to it this week &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Money is stored labor. Labor is part of human life. To devalue money is to debase life.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; John Kenneth Galbraith<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Divorce is the one human tragedy that reduces everything to cash.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Rita Mae Brown<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>If wisdom were measured by the size of the beard, the goat would be a philosopher.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Danish proverb<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Amazon CEO and founder, Jeff Bezos, announced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-01-09\/bezos-net-worth-cut-half-amazon-ceo-announces-he-getting-divorce\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he and his wife are divorcing<\/a> after 25 years of marriage. Barring the presence of a prenup, Bezos&#8217; net worth is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tmz.com\/2019\/01\/10\/jeff-bezos-prenup-mackenzie-lauren-sanchez-divorce-affair\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">set to drop by half<\/a> &#8212; that would see him lose the &#8220;world&#8217;s richest man&#8221; crown to Bill Gates, forcing him to settle for being &#8220;only&#8221; the world&#8217;s fifth-richest. His wife, however, <em><strong>would<\/strong><\/em> become the world&#8217;s richest woman.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On a related note, last week <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/what-amazons-rise-to-no-1-says-about-the-stock-market-11547226248\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Amazon overtook Apple and Microsoft<\/a> to become the world&#8217;s largest company. Unfortunately for Mr. Bezos, while Amazon now sells more stuff than ever, they still haven&#8217;t penetrated the quicky-divorce market. Yet.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Looking at the other end of the socioeconomic divide, a new study has determined that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/01\/09\/shutdown-highlights-that-4-in-5-us-workers-live-paycheck-to-paycheck.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4 in 5 American workers are living from paycheck to paycheck<\/a>. Yes, yes &#8230; I know <em><strong>exactly<\/strong><\/em> what you&#8217;re thinking:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Dp0Bt2cbcc8?controls=0&amp;start=52\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> But seriously, how can so many working people be living from paycheck to paycheck in a &#8220;booming&#8221; economy? For the answer, look no further than our corrupt, debt-based fiat monetary system; American <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/charleskadlec\/2011\/08\/15\/nixons-colossal-monetary-error-the-verdict-40-years-later\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">living standards have been steadily dropping<\/a> ever since the US dollar&#8217;s anchor to gold was broken in 1971. And things will only continue to get worse while the current monetary system remains in place.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, those American workers who are barely making ends meet will be dismayed to learn that JP Morgan is now pegging <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-01-05\/jpmorgan-sees-60-odds-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the odds of a recession at 60%<\/a> within the next year. What makes this notable is two months ago the very same JP Morgan forecast a 60% chance of recession &#8230; <em><strong>two years<\/strong><\/em> from now. Did I mention that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/ask\/answers\/050715\/how-did-great-recession-affect-structural-unemployment.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unemployment more than doubled<\/a> during the last recession in 2009? It did.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Indeed, the crashing oil, banking and utility sectors, coupled with slumping home and auto sales, are now at levels not seen since 2008. Of course, this suggests the global economy is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-01-06\/downturn-repeat-2008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">headed for a severe recession<\/a>, which explains the recent rotation into US Treasury bonds &#8212; and the resulting decline in interest rates. That makes perfect sense, especially with global confidence in the dollar stronger than ever. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-01-09\/russia-boosted-yuan-euro-holdings-as-it-dumped-dollars-in-2018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Oh, wait<\/a> &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Hedge fund manager Harris Kupperman warns that, &#8220;When the (stock) bubble unwinds, it will be <a href=\"http:\/\/adventuresincapitalism.com\/2019\/01\/03\/profitless-prosperity-sector-will-collapse\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fast and vicious<\/a> as there is no natural buyer for a money losing business that&#8217;s run out of capital. It took half a decade to create the Internet bubble, yet it all vaporized in a few months; this bubble will collapse at a similar rate.&#8221; That&#8217;s bad news for companies like Uber, Tesla, and Twitter. Probably Amazon too.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Falling stock prices are bad news for pensions too. Thanks to the Fed&#8217;s decade-long low interest rate policy, the only hope pension managers had of meeting 8% return goals was by stretching into high-risk assets, which are now imploding. The US pension funding shortfall &#8212; public <em><strong>and<\/strong><\/em> private &#8212; is now $6.2 trillion. If the last two cycles are any indication, the next market downturn <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2019-01-07\/how-federal-reserve-quietly-bankrupted-us-pension-system\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">could see that triple<\/a>. Yikes.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> With the stakes so high, it&#8217;s no wonder Fed chairman Jay Powell announced last week that rate hikes are off until further notice and that he&#8217;s even looking at scaling back the Fed&#8217;s liquidity-draining quantitative tightening program. Since then, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/stock-futures-edge-lower-ahead-of-inflation-data-2019-01-11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stocks have been rallying<\/a>. Hard. As macroeconomist Jim Rickards notes, &#8220;If you need proof that today&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/heres-where-the-next-crisis-starts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rigged markets still require Fed support<\/a>, there it is.&#8221; Uh huh. Speaking of unwelcome support &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, Fitch is threatening to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/01\/09\/fitch-warns-of-possible-cut-to-us-triple-a-rating.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">cut the United States&#8217; AAA credit rating<\/a>. According to Fitch&#8217;s global head of sovereign ratings, James McCormack, &#8220;There is a meaningful fiscal deterioration going on. If this shutdown continues &#8230; we may need to start thinking about whether that is consistent with AAA.&#8221; Psst. Hey, Mr. McCormack &#8230; that &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.usdebtclock.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fiscal deterioration<\/a>&#8221; has officially been in hyperdrive for a decade now.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> So, with the US economy now completely dependent on the Fed&#8217;s printing press, it&#8217;s no wonder that the world&#8217;s largest hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio, all but admitted last week that the US dollar&#8217;s time as the global reserve currency is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/looking-back-last-40-years-reforms-china-ray-dalio\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">coming to an end<\/a>. No, he didn&#8217;t say when. Frankly, I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;ll have to wait too long.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a summary of investment returns by asset class in 2018:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>0.0%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> US Treasury Bonds<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-1.5%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Gold<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-4.4%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> S&amp;P 500<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-4.4%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Nasdaq<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-6.0%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Dow<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-8.6%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Silver<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>-11.0%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Russell 2000<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[poll id=&#8221;249&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>What is the brand of your mobile phone?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Apple (42%)<\/li>\n<li>Something else. (33%)<\/li>\n<li>Samsung (20%)<\/li>\n<li>I don&#8217;t own a mobile phone. (5%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1400 people responded to last week&#8217;s question and it turns out that, when it comes to mobile phones, slightly more than twice as many Len Penzo dot Com readers own Apple as Samsung. Another third own a different brand, while 1 in 20 say they don&#8217;t have a mobile phone. I&#8217;ve got an Apple, but I didn&#8217;t pay for it &#8212; my employer did!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: The Forbidden Island<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A Frenchman, an Englishman, and a New Yorker launched an expedition and discovered an uncharted island.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, the island was home to a tribe of cannibals. Soon enough the three men were ambushed and overrun. They were then tied up and taken to see the tribe&#8217;s chief.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;You were forbidden from setting foot on this island!&#8221; the chief said. &#8220;We&#8217;re going to eat you and use your skins to build a canoe. However, we&#8217;re not without compassion &#8212; we&#8217;ll let you choose how you&#8217;re going to die.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The Englishman said, &#8220;Give me a gun.&#8221; So the cannibal chief handed him a gun. The Englishman then raised the gun to his head and yelled, &#8220;God save the Queen!&#8221; before blowing his brains out.<\/p>\n<p>The Frenchman and the New Yorker watched as the cannibals proceeded to skin the dead Englishman.<\/p>\n<p>Inspired by the Englishman&#8217;s bravery, the Frenchman then said, &#8220;Give me a sword.&#8221; So his wish was granted and he yelled &#8220;Viva la France!&#8221; before impaling himself.<\/p>\n<p>The cannibals then skinned the Frenchman.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, it was the New Yorker&#8217;s turn. &#8220;Gimme a fork!&#8221; he demanded. The cannibal chief complied, and the New Yorker then jabbed himself over and over with the fork until he was covered with thousands of blood-oozing holes.<\/p>\n<p>Puzzled at the spectacle he just witnessed, the cannibal chief asked the New Yorker, &#8220;So &#8230; any last words?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Yeah,&#8221; said the New Yorker. &#8220;There goes your God damn canoe!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: resistedliving via Zero Hedge)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five states in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. New Mexico (3.13 pages\/visit) <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>!!<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n2. West Virginia (2.65) <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>!<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n3. Alaska (2.18)<br \/>\n4. Idaho (2.11)<br \/>\n5. Arkansas (1.86)<\/p>\n<p>46. Hawaii (1.23)<br \/>\n47. Oklahoma (1.20)<br \/>\n48. Vermont (1.19)<br \/>\n49. Mississippi (1.14)<br \/>\n50. Wyoming (1.04)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like my friends in New Mexico) &#8212; or not (ahem, Wyoming &#8230;) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. Consider becoming a <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/membership-account\">Len Penzo dot Com Insider<\/a>! Thank you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>From <strong>Terri<\/strong>, who left an urgent request in my inbox this week:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>Pick me! Pick me! Pick me! PICK ME!<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Okay, Terri &#8230; I&#8217;m picking you! But if this ends up being the highlight of your week, then we really need to talk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed this, please forward it to your friends and family. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. Let&#8217;s get right to it this week &#8230; Money is stored labor. Labor is part of human life. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-52773","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Separating the Sheep from the Goats<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id52773-black-coffee-12-jan-2019.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Separating the Sheep from the Goats\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. Let&#8217;s get right to it this week &#8230; Money is stored labor. Labor is part of human life. 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