{"id":51989,"date":"2018-12-01T02:15:21","date_gmt":"2018-12-01T10:15:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=51989"},"modified":"2018-12-04T05:19:23","modified_gmt":"2018-12-04T13:19:23","slug":"black-coffee-panic-at-the-disco","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id51989-black-coffee-panic-at-the-disco.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Panic at the Disco"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-23820\" title=\"black coffee\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><\/a><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe<\/em> &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>And away we go &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;All fiat money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Voltaire<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;He who panics first, panics best.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Anonymous<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Venezuela: the gift that keep on giving &#8212; or should I say, &#8220;taking.&#8221; Despite being an obscenely oil-rich nation, Venezuela is now <a href=\"https:\/\/www.americanthinker.com\/blog\/2018\/11\/socialism_is_causing_venezuela__with_the_worlds_largest_oil_reserves__to_run_out_of_gasoline.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">suffering from a gasoline shortage<\/a>. No, really. You know &#8230; that reminds me of the old joke that says if you put a bunch of socialists in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years the Sahara would suffer from a shortage of sand. Yes, it&#8217;s funny. But it&#8217;s also true. Forward!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Then again, the only reason why the US isn&#8217;t suffering the same fate as Venezuela is because it happens to be the owner the world&#8217;s premier reserve currency &#8212; for now, anyway. That exorbitant privilege allows the US to export its inflation globally. Even so, the US government has a growing problem, as the interest payments on its massive debt is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-11-29\/us-spending-15-billion-debt-interest-every-day\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fast approaching $2 billion<\/a>. <strong><em>Per day<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Earlier this year, money manager John Mauldin believed a global debt reset was still &#8220;one or two years away.&#8221; But in an article for Forbes, he says <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/johnmauldin\/2018\/11\/07\/a-worldwide-debt-default-is-a-real-possibility\/#24ea15f653aa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he&#8217;s having second thoughts<\/a>. &#8220;Recent events tell me the reckoning could be closer than I thought,&#8221; he says. Uh oh. Frankly, the fact that John&#8217;s concern was even published in Forbes suggests the current monetary system may be closer to total failure than many people want to admit.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Mauldin has a compelling reason for believing a monetary reset is imminent: 50 years ago a dollar of debt added $4 to GDP &#8212; today, it boosts GDP <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sovereignman.com\/trends\/every-1-in-debt-generates-just-44-cents-of-economic-output-23951\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">by just 44 cents<\/a>. In other words, new debt is only doing more harm than good now &#8212; and its adverse effects are growing in magnitude with each passing day. Psst. Do you hear that? That&#8217;s the sound of the piper knockin&#8217; at our door. Or something like that:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WDpipB4yehk?controls=0&amp;start=34&amp;end=123;\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, it looks like many Australians are worried that the Bank of England has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.news.com.au\/finance\/economy\/australian-economy\/just-bring-the-gold-back-rba-responds-as-conspiracy-theories-swirl-around-australias-missing-gold\/news-story\/c0fe71e8bd40a3440a58febb80df8da3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">surreptitiously sold off<\/a> at least 11 of the 80 tons of gold they were charged with securely holding for the Land Down Under. Unfortunately for Australians, only 0.01% of their entire gold horde is held on their own soil. Again, if you don&#8217;t hold it, you don&#8217;t own it, folks.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On second thought, I guess Australia&#8217;s plight could be worse; they could have gone all-in on bitcoin last year. <a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2018\/11\/25\/bitcoin-plunges-to-3738-whole-crypto-scam-melts-down-hedge-funds-stuck\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin&#8217;s plunge continued<\/a> this past week, falling as low as $3515 before recovering slightly to end the week at $3947. What&#8217;s truly amazing is not so much that bitcoin has fallen more than 80% in less than a year &#8212; it&#8217;s that the ephemeral cryptocurrency is still worth more than three ounces of gold.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, bitcoin and America&#8217;s credit rating aren&#8217;t the only things that have been plunging. General Electric stock has taken a beating too; GE shares have dropped from $32 in 2016 to $7.50 today. And now stocks in general are moving down <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-11-27\/has-become-short-everything-sight-market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">in lock step with the Fed&#8217;s quantitative tightening<\/a> monetary contraction campaign &#8212; just as they moved upward in lock step during quantitative easing. Imagine that.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Of course, GE was one of Wall Street&#8217;s major share buyback operators between 2015 and 2017 when it paid $40 billion for shares between $20 and $32. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/misguided-share-buybacks-are-hollowing-out-companies-balance-sheets-and-will-lead-to-even-bigger-trouble-2018-11-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">According to MarketWatch<\/a>, with GE stock now selling for far less than that, it turns out that for those three years, &#8220;GE has managed to lose more on its share repurchases than it made in operations, by a substantial margin.&#8221; And the pain is just getting started.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Last, but not least &#8230; New home purchases dropped last month to the weakest pace in two years. Meanwhile, previously-owned home sales dropped for a sixth straight month &#8212; that&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-11-23\/desperate-homebuilders-offering-100000-discounts-free-vacations-amid-cooling-market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the worst decline since 2014<\/a>. As a result, the emergence of picky buyers has many homeowners who are looking to sell feeling antsy. As for the army of leveraged home flippers looking to turn a quick buck, they&#8217;re &#8230; well, see for yourself:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nqZ86pJkz-M?controls=0&amp;start=7&amp;end=29;\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Bloomberg is reporting that <em><strong>homebuilders<\/strong><\/em> are starting to panic too, &#8220;Offering <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloombergquint.com\/global-economics\/free-vacations-100-000-discounts-homebuilders-get-desperate#gs.KrOeq5I\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">price cuts of more than $100,000<\/a> along with free media rooms, cabinets and blinds. And real estate brokers are being enticed with free vacations to Lake Tahoe, Cabo San Lucas and even a dude ranch in Wyoming &#8212; all in the hopes that they&#8217;ll (find) buyers in slowing markets.&#8221; The trouble is, hope is never a good strategy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>According to the government&#8217;s Consumer Price Index, prices for most things have barely budged during the past two years. If you find the following numbers to be more than a bit understated, you&#8217;re not alone:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3.2%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Overall increase in the CPI since November 2016, excluding housing.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$101<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The resulting overall increase in the monthly expenses of an average family in the middle 20% of income distribution.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1.1%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> According to the CPI, the total increase in grocery prices since November 2016; that&#8217;s an increase of just $3.33 per month for the average family residing within the middle 20% of income distribution.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$0.50<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The overall increase in the monthly electricity bill since November 2016.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>3%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The overall increase in rents since November 2016.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/11\/03\/upshot\/how-the-economic-lives-of-the-middle-class-have-changed-since-2016-by-the-numbers.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New York Times<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"243\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Results<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Did you do any Black Friday shopping this year?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>No (71%)<\/li>\n<li>Yes (29%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1700 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week&#8217;s question and slightly less than 3 in 10 said they did some shopping on Black Friday. Not me. I spent the day eating leftovers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Preaching the Faith<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A priest, a minister, and a rabbi wanted to see who was the best at his job. So they each went into the woods to find a bear and attempt to convert it. Later that day they got together to compare how they did.<\/p>\n<p>The priest said: &#8220;When I found my bear, I read to him from the Catechism and sprinkled him with holy water. Next week is his First Communion!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Then the minister spoke: &#8220;I found a bear by the stream, and preached God&#8217;s holy word,&#8221; he said. &#8220;The bear was so mesmerized that he actually let me baptize him!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Next to speak was the rabbi, who was lying on a gurney in a full body cast. &#8220;Looking back,&#8221; he said, &#8220;I probably shouldn&#8217;t have started with the circumcision.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: Cowpoke)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Programming note: Unlike most blogs, I&#8217;m always open for the weekend here at Len Penzo dot Com. There&#8217;s a fresh new article waiting for you every Saturday afternoon. At least there should be. If not, somebody call 9-1-1.<\/p>\n<p>Hey! If you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading &#8212; or not &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. Don&#8217;t forget to <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">subscribe via email<\/a> too! Thank you.<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. Consider becoming a <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/membership-account\">Len Penzo dot Com Insider<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This week I heard from <strong>Taylor<\/strong>, who left this comment after reading <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id51711-what-you-need-to-know-before-hiring-a-concrete-contractor.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">my recent article<\/a> on what you need to know before choosing a concrete contractor:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;Thanks for the great tips. My driveway is kind of old and lumpy, so I&#8217;ve been thinking it may be nice to replace it.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Your driveway sounds a lot like my mattress.<\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><br style=\"color: #0000ff;\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you enjoyed what you read here, please forward this to your friends and relatives. I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. And away we go &#8230; &#8220;All fiat money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero.&#8221; &#8212; Voltaire &#8220;He [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-51989","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Panic at the Disco<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id51989-black-coffee-panic-at-the-disco.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Panic at the Disco\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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