{"id":51313,"date":"2018-10-20T04:15:47","date_gmt":"2018-10-20T11:15:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=51313"},"modified":"2021-09-05T06:50:46","modified_gmt":"2021-09-05T13:50:46","slug":"black-coffee-20-october-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id51313-black-coffee-20-october-2018.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: A Tale of Loose Credit and Market Cracks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-23820\" title=\"black coffee\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe<\/em> &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>I hope everybody is having a great weekend! Okay, away we go &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;A farmer returning home in his wagon, after selling a load of corn, is a better indication of the economy than a nobleman riding in his chariot to the opera.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong> &#8212; old proverb<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? The total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies fell by $18 billion over the course of three days last week. In fact, bitcoin ended last week 5% lower, while two other popular cryptos &#8212; ripple, and ether &#8212; were down 12% and 18%, respectively. According to CNBC, the plunge has left many wondering <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/10\/12\/cryptocurrencies-suffer-18-billion-drop-in-value-over-three-days.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">if bitcoin is really a safe haven<\/a> &#8212; or a risk asset. Psst. Hey, CNBC &#8230; It&#8217;s a risk asset.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In other news, events are now being held across America where <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/10\/12\/thousands-line-up-for-zero-down-payment-subprime-mortgages.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">low-income borrowers with poor credit<\/a> are being offered no-down payment, low interest rate loans. We&#8217;ve been down this road before and &#8212; in case anyone has forgotten &#8212; it led to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. I guess bankers have short memories. In the meantime, the credit party rolls on. Although it&#8217;s beginning to look a little like these shindigs:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XH7ZyZv2_qs?controls=0&amp;start=34;end=103\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Unfortunately, all of this loose credit &#8212; especially to borrowers with dubious finances &#8212; will eventually come back to bite the lenders. Oh, and there&#8217;s also a growing risk that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-10-10\/has-derivatives-volcano-already-begun-erupt\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dollar credit will seize up globally<\/a>, devastating countries that rely on borrowed dollars to cover their deficits.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Of course, loose credit &#8212; abetted by the world&#8217;s central banks &#8212; is the lubricant that is keeping risk asset engines such as stocks and corporate bonds running smoothly (read: constantly increasing in value). But here&#8217;s the rub: The global monetary backdrop is only <a href=\"https:\/\/acting-man.com\/?p=53576\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">becoming less accommodative<\/a>. As a result, the markets are plagued by growing technical and structural problems, which have led to greater volatility.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of growing structural problems, financial analyst Dave Kranzler is warning that <a href=\"http:\/\/investmentresearchdynamics.com\/the-cracks-in-the-markets-floor-grow-wider\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">market cracks are growing larger<\/a> with each passing day: &#8220;What should frighten market participants, policy-makers and everyone else is that the 10-yr yield soared last (week) despite the big sell-off in the Dow and S&amp;P. That reflects financial market problems that are not superficially apparent.&#8221; Uh oh.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> After looking closely at recent macroeconomic indicators, Lance Roberts goes a step further: he believes &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/yes-something-just-broke-10-12-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">something just broke<\/a>&#8221; in the financial system &#8212; and the culprit is rising interest rates. In fact, Roberts says because we&#8217;re in a rising rate environment, things <em>aren&#8217;t<\/em> as rosy as they seem. &#8220;The underlying economic growth story isn&#8217;t nearly as strong as reported,&#8221; he says. Don&#8217;t spoil the illusion, Lance.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Gtm4vp1X6fQ?controls=0&amp;start=57;end=67\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Needless to say, as the world&#8217;s central banks continue to tighten the easy-money spigot that, until last year, has been wide open, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.peakprosperity.com\/blog\/114445\/has-%E2%80%9Cit%E2%80%9D-finally-arrived\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">it&#8217;s only a matter of time<\/a> before the artificial stock market gains that resulted from the ensuing flood of money will evaporate as well.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, Hungary&#8217;s central bank just announced <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bullionstar.com\/blogs\/ronan-manly\/surprise-move-central-bank-hungary-announces-10-fold-jump-gold-reserves\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a 10-fold jump in their gold reserves<\/a>; that&#8217;s the first time the Hungarian central bank increased its gold reserves since 1986. But I&#8217;m sure that&#8217;s not any reflection of their concern about the international monetary system. Nope. Not at all.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Then again, maybe it <em>is<\/em> a sign of concern. After all, the International Monetary Fund sounded downright alarmist in its latest Global Financial Stability report, stating that, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.atimes.com\/article\/great-depression-ahead-imf-sounds-dire-warning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Large challenges loom<\/a> for the global economy to prevent a second Great Depression.&#8221; And if you want a second opinion, well &#8230; the <em>other<\/em> arbiter of global risks, the Bank for International Settlements, comes to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publ\/qtrpdf\/r_qt1809w.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a similar conclusion<\/a>. So there.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, if the warnings make you feel uncomfortable, go ahead and ignore them and focus on the <em>really<\/em> important stuff &#8212; like dressing up your pooch for Halloween. This year, pet owners will spend $500 million on animal costumes this Halloween. I&#8217;m sure it&#8217;s purely a coincidence that the amount of money spent on outrageous pet outfits has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/instagram-loving-pets-owners-will-spend-nearly-500m-on-animal-costumes-this-halloween-2018-10-16\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more than doubled<\/a> since the Great Financial Crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How much will you spend on Halloween candy, costumes and decorations this year?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>$0 (43%)<\/li>\n<li>$1 to $20 (38%)<\/li>\n<li>More than $20 (19%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1500 Len Penzo dot Com readers answered this week&#8217;s survey question and it turns out that slightly less than 1 in 5 of them will spend more than $20 on Halloween this year &#8212; and fully 43% say they won&#8217;t spend a single dime. I&#8217;ll be spending less than $10 on candy this year &#8212; I just hope there is still some left to hand out by the time the trick-or-treaters come knocking on my door!<\/p>\n<p>If you have a question you&#8217;d like to see featured here, please send it to me at <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong> and be sure to put &#8220;Question of the Week&#8221; in the subject line.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"237\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">(The Best of)<\/span> By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The time for summer barbecues has passed, but the World Series gets started in a few days. With that in mind, here are a few facts and figures on hot dogs:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>20,000,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Hot dogs consumed by Americans each year &#8212; that&#8217;s 70 per person annually.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>35<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Percentage of hot dogs eaten between Memorial Day and Labor Day.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>2<\/strong><\/span><\/span> European cities that claim to be the birthplace of the modern hot dog. (Vienna and Frankfurt)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1900<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Year &#8220;hot dog&#8221; first appeared in The Oxford English Dictionary.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$2500<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Daily revenue for a Big Apple hot dog cart at W. 67th St. and the West Dr. on a typical summer Saturday.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$50<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Amount the same NYC hot dog cart brings in on a typical winter day.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$266,850<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Annual fee charged by NYC Parks for a hot dog stand at the same location.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$300<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Amount Nathan Handwerker borrowed in 1916 to start a hot dog stand at Coney Island.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$82,900,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Nathan&#8217;s Hot Dogs revenue in 2013.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/us-news\/infographic-hot-dogs-numbers-n175276\">NBC News<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Drugstore Shoppers<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Two young boys walked into a drug store one day, picked up a box of tampons and proceeded to the checkout counter.<\/p>\n<p>The pharmacist at the counter asked the older boy, &#8220;Son, how old are you?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Eight,&#8221; the boy replied.<\/p>\n<p>The man continued, &#8220;Do you know what these are used for?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The boy replied, &#8220;Not exactly, but they aren&#8217;t for me. They&#8217;re for him. He&#8217;s my brother. He&#8217;s four.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Oh, really?&#8221; the pharmacist replied with a grin.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Yes,&#8221; the boy said. &#8220;We saw on TV that if you use these, you would be able to swim, play tennis and ride a bike. Right now, he can&#8217;t do none of that.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: RD Blakeslee)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five Canadian provinces and territories in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. Prince Edward Island (2.00 pages\/visit)<br \/>\n2. Quebec (1.84)<br \/>\n3. Nova Scotia (1.56)<br \/>\n4. Northwest Territories (1.54)<br \/>\n5. Alberta (1.46)<\/p>\n<p>9. British Columbia (1.23)<br \/>\n10. New Brunswick (1.17)<br \/>\n11. Saskatchewan (1.15)<br \/>\n12. Nunavut (1.07)<br \/>\n13. Yukon Territory (1.05)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like those <em>really<\/em> crazy canucks on the Prince Edward Island, eh &#8230;) &#8212; or not (ahem, you hosers living on the frozen Yukon tundra) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. Consider becoming a <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/membership-account\">Len Penzo dot Com Insider<\/a>! Thank you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>After reading my list of <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id10281-18-tips-to-consider-before-buying-auto-home-life-insurance-3.html\">18 tips to consider before buying home, life and car insurance<\/a>, <strong>Olivia<\/strong> left this comment:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;I think that a sign of a good insurance provider is the ability to listen to you. The bad part is nobody ever listens to me.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Olivia, I think every parent with a teenager knows exactly how you feel. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: (coffee) brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. I hope everybody is having a great weekend! Okay, away we go &#8230; &#8220;A farmer returning home in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-51313","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: A Tale of Loose Credit and Market Cracks<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id51313-black-coffee-20-october-2018.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: A Tale of Loose Credit and Market Cracks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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