{"id":49876,"date":"2018-07-14T04:15:44","date_gmt":"2018-07-14T11:15:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=49876"},"modified":"2023-04-17T12:58:49","modified_gmt":"2023-04-17T19:58:49","slug":"black-coffee-14-july-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id49876-black-coffee-14-july-2018.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Red (Ink) Storm Rising"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31075\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-31075 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"black coffee\" width=\"275\" height=\"206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-50x38.jpg 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px\" \/><\/a><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s get right to it this week &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;Debt is one person&#8217;s liability, but another person&#8217;s asset.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Paul Krugman<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Alan Greenspan<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Vladimir Lenin<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> The US collected a record $1.3 trillion in individual income taxes through the first nine months of fiscal 2018. Even so, the federal government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnsnews.com\/news\/article\/terence-p-jeffrey\/feds-collect-record-individual-income-taxes-through-june-still-run\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">still ran a deficit<\/a> of $607 billion during those same nine months. Uh huh. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. By the way, for those who prefer a graphic illustration, let&#8217;s go to the tape:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dcBc-zJ3QxY?rel=0&amp;controls=0&amp;showinfo=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> The growing US income tax revenue filling government coffers suggests an improving economy. In fact, Americans quit their jobs in May at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/americans-quitting-their-jobs-at-fastest-rate-since-2001-and-thats-a-good-thing-2018-07-10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the fastest pace since 2001<\/a>, suggesting an economy with ample job opportunities for those who want them. Now all we need are wages rising to a point that is high enough to ensure all of those open positions are filled quickly. (Psst. Don&#8217;t hold your breath.)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> I sure hope wages are climbing in the Bay Area because San Francisco <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-07-07\/san-francisco-home-prices-soar-ridiculous-200000-six-months\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">home prices have soared $200,000<\/a> &#8212; in just <em>the last six months<\/em>. As a result, there are now entire neighborhoods in the City where every single transaction is above $1 million. Hey &#8230; I wonder if the million-dollar-plus price tag comes with sidewalks that are free from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/usa\/431838-san-francisco-human-feces\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">feces and used syringes<\/a>. I know; I don&#8217;t think so either. Forward!<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Home prices in Frisco aren&#8217;t the only thing that&#8217;s going up. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/wonk\/wp\/2018\/05\/28\/america-has-a-massive-truck-driver-shortage-heres-why-few-want-an-80000-job\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ongoing truck driver shortage<\/a> is a big reason why truck freight-transportation costs have climbed <a href=\"https:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/alert-we-havent-seen-this-in-7-years\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">climbed 7.7%<\/a> since the same time last year. And now, thanks to scrambling companies looking for transportation of any kind, rail transportation rates have also risen 6% year-over-year. Imagine that.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? Gold is insurance against counterparty risk; so why reintroduce counterparty risk by storing it in a bank? Last week, a multi-millionaire sought to remove 500 kilos of his physical gold from a commercial European bank; however, <a href=\"https:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/major-alert-andrew-maguire-says-major-german-bank-just-refused-to-hand-over-clients-physical-gold\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the bank refused<\/a> his request. That&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/greyerz-says-one-of-the-two-largest-banks-in-switzerland-just-refused-to-hand-over-clients-physical-gold\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the fourth time in less than a year<\/a> that a Euro bank has pulled this stunt. Yes, it&#8217;s disturbing &#8212; but not surprising. Just ask this guy:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/c2gw-asbBIM?start=39&amp;end=56;rel=0&amp;controls=0&amp;showinfo=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Maybe those European banks know that worldwide debt grew by $8 trillion during the first quarter of 2018, to an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-07-10\/global-debt-hits-record-247-trillion-iif-issues-warning\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">all-time high of $247 trillion<\/a>. It&#8217;s also the fastest rate of debt accumulation in two years. Compounding the problem, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Institute_of_International_Finance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the IIF<\/a> is warning that, &#8220;The quality of creditworthiness has declined sharply.&#8221; Ya think? The truly creditworthy folks are either tapped out &#8212; or not interested in going into debt.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, the skyrocketing debt &#8212; coupled with higher interest rates and climbing inflation &#8212; is causing US government interest payments to rise noticeably. In the first quarter of 2018, they hit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-07-12\/us-budget-deficit-hits-607-billion-9-months-spending-interest-explodes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">an all-time high<\/a>. And if rates double from the current mid-1% range to 3% in the next year or two, as the Fed is predicting, then the interest payment on the debt alone will approach $1 trillion annually. Uh oh.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of looming financial problems, in 1987, pension promises to government workers in Illinois&#8217; five now-teetering state-run plans totaled $18 billion; by 2016, they were $208 billion. That&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wirepoints.com\/janus-v-afscme-and-the-truth-about-illinois-pensions-in-one-graphic-wirepoints-original\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a cumulative 1067% increase<\/a>. Over the same period, Illinois&#8217; revenues were up just 236%, household incomes were up just 127%, and inflation was up just 111%. But I&#8217;m sure this can all be fixed by raising taxes. Again.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_49924\" style=\"width: 541px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/pension-illinois.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-49924\" class=\"wp-image-49924\" src=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/pension-illinois.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"531\" height=\"422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/pension-illinois.png 738w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/pension-illinois-300x239.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 531px) 100vw, 531px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-49924\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">click to enlarge (the picture, not Illinois&#8217; government-retiree benefits)<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> So why are there so many fiscal issues a decade into this so-called &#8220;economic recovery&#8221;? Well &#8230; as John Hussman notes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hussmanfunds.com\/comment\/mc180604\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the economy has become a Ponzi scheme<\/a> because it requires the constant creation of increasingly-lower-grade debt to finance consumption. And since those securities are assets to the holder and liabilities to the issuer, the skyrocketing debt doesn&#8217;t reflect real wealth &#8212; it&#8217;s nothing but a tally of claims and obligations between parties.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> In other words, when the debt blows up &#8212; and it most certainly will &#8212; the &#8220;asset&#8221; holders will finally learn the difference between real and paper wealth. You can bet the bankers know this. Well &#8230; at least the European bankers do, if their affinity for their depositors&#8217; gold is any indication.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a quick look at the simmering trade war between the US and China, which is now threatening to boil over:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$34,000,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Current amount of tariffs on Chinese imports to the US.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>$216,000,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Amount of additional tariffs the US is threatening to impose on Chinese imports.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>8.6%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The expected reduction in Chinese exports to the US.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>0.3%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The expected reduction in China&#8217;s GDP if the threatened additional tariffs are actually implemented.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>0.35%<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The expected reduction in US GDP.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-07-12\/wall-street-economists-run-the-numbers-on-trump-s-trade-salvo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[poll id=&#8221;223&#8243;]<\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Result<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>How would you describe the housing market where you live?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Prices are increasing. (72%)<\/li>\n<li>Prices are steady. (22%)<\/li>\n<li>Prices are falling. (6%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1300 people responded to last week&#8217;s question and, based upon the responses, the housing market is booming. No surprise there. All of the dollars being created by the world&#8217;s central banks have to go somewhere, folks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Expectant Fathers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Four men were in the hospital waiting room because their wives were having babies. After awhile, the nurse came out and said to the first guy, &#8220;Congratulations! You&#8217;re the father of twins.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That&#8217;s odd,&#8221; answered the man. &#8220;I work for the Minnesota Twins!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>A little while later, the nurse came back and said to the second guy, &#8220;Congratulations! You&#8217;re the father of triplets!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That&#8217;s weird,&#8221; said the second man. &#8220;I work for the 3M company!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Not long after, the same nurse came out and told the next man, &#8220;Congratulations! You&#8217;re the father of quadruplets!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;That&#8217;s strange,&#8221; he said. &#8220;I work for the Four Seasons hotel!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Upon hearing this, the last man began groaning and banging his head against the wall.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;What&#8217;s wrong?&#8221; said the nurse.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;I work for 7-Up!<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: RD Blakeslee)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top &#8212; and bottom &#8212; five states in terms of the average number of pages viewed per visit here at Len Penzo dot Com over the past 30 days:<\/p>\n<p>1. South Dakota (2.38 pages\/visit)<br \/>\n2. Minnesota (2.29)<br \/>\n3. Arkansas (1.84)<br \/>\n4. Alaska (1.63)<br \/>\n5. Idaho (1.60)<\/p>\n<p>46. Hawaii (1.23)<br \/>\n47. Massachusetts (1.20)<br \/>\n48. Montana (1.18)<br \/>\n49. Oregon (1.06)<br \/>\n50. Wyoming (1.04)<\/p>\n<p>Whether you happen to enjoy what you&#8217;re reading (like my friends in South Dakota) &#8212; or not (ahem, Wyoming &#8230; <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>for the second month in a row!<\/strong><\/span>) &#8212; please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. Consider becoming a <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/membership-account\">Len Penzo dot Com Insider<\/a>! Thank you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment &#8212; assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Randy<\/strong> dropped me a line to ask if I&#8217;d like to feature one of his guest posts on my website. There&#8217;s just one problem:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;I came across your blog (Wise Bread) today and I wanted to thank you. The content is very informative!&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">I&#8217;m glad to see you have high standards, Randy &#8212; unlike the crap that &#8220;Len Penzo&#8221; guy writes at his sorry blog.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. Let&#8217;s get right to it this week &#8230; &#8220;Debt is one person&#8217;s liability, but another person&#8217;s asset.&#8221; &#8212; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-49876","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Red (Ink) Storm Rising<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id49876-black-coffee-14-july-2018.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Red (Ink) Storm Rising\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. Let&#8217;s get right to it this week &#8230; &#8220;Debt is one person&#8217;s liability, but another person&#8217;s asset.&#8221; &#8212; [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id49876-black-coffee-14-july-2018.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Len Penzo dot Com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-07-14T11:15:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-17T19:58:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/black-coffee.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"375\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Len Penzo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" 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