{"id":49340,"date":"2018-06-23T04:15:04","date_gmt":"2018-06-23T11:15:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=49340"},"modified":"2025-01-11T09:02:16","modified_gmt":"2025-01-11T17:02:16","slug":"black-coffee-23-june-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id49340-black-coffee-23-june-2018.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Weighing the Evidence Against the US Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-31075\" src=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg\" alt=\"black coffee\" width=\"275\" height=\"206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee.jpg 500w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/black-coffee-50x38.jpg 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 275px) 100vw, 275px\" \/><\/a><em>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n<p>Another glorious week comes to an end. Off we go &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;When you see that trading is not done by consent, but by compulsion; when you see that in order to produce you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see money flowing into those who deal not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get richer by graft and pull than by work, and your laws don&#8217;t protect you against them but protects them against you; when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice &#8212; then you know your society is doomed.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong> &#8212; Francisco&#8217;s &#8220;Money Speech&#8221; from Ayn Rand&#8217;s &#8220;Atlas Shrugged&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;All paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>&#8212; Voltaire<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Did you see this? A recent Gallup poll found that the percentage of Americans who are actually satisfied with how things are going in the United States was just 38%! And while that may seem low, that number is actually <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-06-18\/satisfaction-life-america-just-38-and-thats-12-year-high\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the highest satisfaction rate in 12 years<\/a>. No, really.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> As Gallup notes, the national satisfaction index, which was first measured in 1979, is now back to <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/235739\/satisfaction-direction-reaches-year-high.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">its historical average of 37%<\/a>. However, this pales in comparison to the satisfaction levels reached during the economic boom periods in the mid-1980s and late 1990s. Imagine that.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> There&#8217;s a good reason why a significant majority of Americans have been in a relatively sour mood for the past two decades &#8212; and most of them don&#8217;t even know it: <a href=\"https:\/\/qz.com\/1150533\/the-dollars-days-as-the-worlds-most-important-currency-are-numbered\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the &#8220;Almighty Dollar&#8221; is dying<\/a>. Yes, that seems like a crazy claim &#8212; but for those who are willing to open their eyes, the supporting evidence is everywhere.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Let&#8217;s look at Exhibit A: whether it&#8217;s houses, stocks, government bonds, fine art, or collectible cars, almost everything is in a bubble. That&#8217;s because the Fed has been forced to create trillions of additional dollars &#8212; which have to go <em>somewhere<\/em> &#8212; via its so-called &#8220;quantitative easing&#8221; program in order to keep <a href=\"http:\/\/citywire.co.uk\/new-model-adviser\/news\/why-bond-buying-programme-is-a-global-ponzi-scheme\/a1001708\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Ponzi scheme<\/a> better known as the debt-based international monetary system from collapsing.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In fact, Centricus Asset Management Fund Manager Ralph Jainz says we&#8217;re seeing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/06\/18\/were-seeing-the-greatest-asset-inflation-bubble-in-20-years.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the greatest asset inflation bubble<\/a> in 20 years &#8212; and he&#8217;s warning that it could pop sooner than many people expect. Although I&#8217;m sure the Plunge Protection Team will probably have something to say about that.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Those who aren&#8217;t convinced that a housing bubble exists should consider Exhibit B: a two-bedroom, one-bath, 900 square-foot cottage in Palo Alto that some realtor has decided is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/home-price-insanity-2-6-million-for-900-square-feet\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">worth $2.6 million<\/a>. I know &#8212; but it comes with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> By the way, if you think the housing market bubble is enormous, well &#8230; check <em>this<\/em> bubble out:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/UwAnBKeUS7U?start=0&amp;end=30;rel=0&amp;controls=0&amp;showinfo=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Then there&#8217;s Exhibit C: With trillion-dollar budget deficits projected to be the norm in the coming years, the US government desperately needs buyers of its debt. However, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/06\/18\/russia-cuts-treasury-holdings-in-half-as-foreigners-start-losing-appetite-for-us-debt.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">foreigners are clearly losing their appetite for US debt<\/a>; Russia, in particular, recently cut its Treasury holdings by 50% &#8212; in essence, reducing America&#8217;s credit limit at a time when it&#8217;s looking to increase it.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Russia&#8217;s reduction of T-bills was so dramatic that, for the first time ever, the dollar value of its gold holdings now <a href=\"https:\/\/smaulgld.com\/russian-gold-reserves-vs-us-treasuries\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">exceeds the dollar value<\/a> of their US Treasury holdings. Aside from a total lack of confidence in the future of the greenback, can anybody suggest an alternative reason why Russia is now dumping its dollar reserves in favor of the yellow metal?<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ZaK5nUZAU2g?rel=0&amp;controls=0&amp;showinfo=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Of course, the blooming trade war between the US and the rest of the world is Exhibit D. As Robert Triffin correctly predicted, the cost of having the world&#8217;s reserve currency is ever-expanding trade deficits &#8212; and by extension the continued erosion of US manufacturing jobs. Now some fear the resulting tariff tit-for-tat will lead to China&#8217;s gradual &#8212; or sudden &#8212; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-06-19\/here-are-six-ways-china-could-retaliate-trade-war-us\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">liquidation of<em>its<\/em> $1.2 trillion in Treasury holdings<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Finally, behold Exhibit E: The US dollar has been a fiat currency since 1971 &#8212; and history has proven that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.goldtelegraph.com\/fiat-currency-always-ends-in-collapse\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fiat currencies always end in collapse<\/a>. Period. End of story. Which is why I strongly suspect the next crisis coming down the pike will be a currency crisis of epic proportions.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong>Credit:<\/strong><\/span> As Franklin Sanders notes, &#8220;Nothing structural has been fixed since 2008, other than public relations: same rotten banks, same derivatives mess. Debt levels are (much) higher. I&#8217;m not predicting this will happen tomorrow, but <a href=\"https:\/\/the-moneychanger.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the cannon is loaded<\/a>, merely awaiting a match. And when the match lights, it will be too late to scramble for a safe position.&#8221; Truer words have never been spoken.<\/p>\n<p><strong>By the Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This week the 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy was released, which covers energy data through 2017. Here are some of the highlights:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>92,600,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Barrels of oil the world produced per day last year. That&#8217;s a new record.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>8<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The current number of consecutive years that global oil production has increased.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The United States&#8217; rank among the world&#8217;s top oil producers in 2017.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>13,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The average daily barrels of oil the US produced last year.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>12,000,000<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The average daily barrels of oil produced by the second ranked nation. (Saudi Arabia)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>1<\/strong><\/span><\/span> The United States&#8217; rank among the world&#8217;s top natural gas producers last year.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>51<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Percentage of the world&#8217;s coal consumed by China in 2017.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>35<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Percentage year-over-year increase in global solar power consumption in 2017.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-large;\"><strong>17<\/strong><\/span><\/span> Percentage year-over-year increase in global wind power consumption in 2017.<\/p>\n<p><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/rrapier\/2018\/06\/14\/world-sets-new-oil-production-record\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forbes<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><code>[poll id=\"220\"]<\/code><\/p>\n<p><strong>Last Week&#8217;s Poll Results<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Do you think it&#8217;s better to buy or rent a home?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Buy (66%)<\/li>\n<li>I&#8217;m not sure. (20%)<\/li>\n<li>Rent (14%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 1300 Len Penzo dot Com readers responded to last week&#8217;s question, and 2 in 3 say that, despite the crazy housing market prices present in many places, it&#8217;s still better to be a home buyer than a renter. Count me among the 14% who believe it&#8217;s better to rent &#8212; at least until the housing bubble pops.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Useless News: Salesman of the Year<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A young guy from Idaho moved to Florida and went to a big &#8220;everything under one roof&#8221; department store looking for a job.<\/p>\n<p>So the Manager asked, &#8220;Do you have any sales experience?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Yeah,&#8221; said the young man, &#8220;I was a vacuum salesman back in Idaho.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Well, the boss was unsure, but he liked the kid and figured he&#8217;d give him a shot, so he gave him the job.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Okay. You start tomorrow. I&#8217;ll come down after we close and see how you did.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The young guy&#8217;s first day on the job was rough, but he got through it. After the store was locked up, the boss came down to the sales floor.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;How many customers bought something from you today?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The kid frowned and looked at the floor and muttered, &#8220;One.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Just one?&#8221; said the boss. &#8220;Our sales people average sales to 20 to 30 customers a day! That will have to change, and soon, if you&#8217;d like to continue your employment here. We have very strict standards for our sales force here in Florida. One sale a day might have been acceptable in Idaho, but you&#8217;re not on the farm anymore, son.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The kid took his beating, but continued to look at his shoes, and the boss felt bad for chewing the kid out on his first day. &#8220;So, how much was your one sale for?&#8221; the boss asked.<\/p>\n<p>The kid looked up at his boss and said, &#8220;$101,237.65.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The boss, astonished, said, &#8220;$101,237.65! What the heck did you sell?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The kid said, &#8220;Well, first, I sold him some new fish hooks. Then I sold him a new fishing rod to go with his new hooks. Then I asked him where he was going fishing and he said down the coast, so I told him he was going to need a boat, so we went down to the boat department and I sold him a twin engine Chris-Craft. Then he said he didn&#8217;t think his Honda Civic would pull it, so I took him down to the automotive department and sold him that 4&#215;4 Expedition.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Astonished at what he just heard, the boss said, &#8220;You&#8217;re telling me that a guy came in here to buy a fish hook and you sold him a boat and a TRUCK!?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;No,&#8221; the kid said, &#8220;The guy came in here to buy some tampons for his wife and I said, &#8216;Dude, your weekend&#8217;s shot! You should go fishing!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><em>(h\/t: RD Blakeslee)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Other Useless News<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here are the top five articles viewed by my <strong>20,202<\/strong> RSS feed, weekly email subscribers, and other followers over the past 30 days (excluding Black Coffee posts):<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>The 7 Deadly Sins of Personal Finance<\/li>\n<li>Dear Diary: What I Did On My Summer Vacation<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id592-gas-or-charcoal-bbqs-which-one-is-more-cost-effective.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gas or Charcoal Barbecues: Which Is More Cost Effective?<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The Ethics of Found Money: How and Where Do You Draw the Line?<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id49143-how-to-save-for-retirement-when-you-dont-make-a-lot-of-money.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">How to Save for Retirement When You Don&#8217;t Make a Lot of Money<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Hey, while you&#8217;re here, please don&#8217;t forget to:<\/p>\n<p>1. Click on that <strong>Like<\/strong> button in the sidebar to your right and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LenPenzo\">become a fan of Len Penzo dot Com on Facebook<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>2. Make sure you <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/LenPenzo\">follow me on Twitter<\/a>!<\/p>\n<p>3. <a href=\"mailto:lenpenzolist@aweber.com\">Subscribe via email<\/a> too!<\/p>\n<p>And last, but not least &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>4. Consider becoming a <a href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/membership-account\">Len Penzo dot Com Insider<\/a>! Thank you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Letters, I Get Letters <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Every week I feature the most interesting question or comment assuming I get one, that is. And folks who are lucky enough to have the only question in the mailbag get their letter highlighted here whether it&#8217;s interesting or not! You can reach out to me at: <strong>Len@LenPenzo.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This week, <strong>Michele<\/strong> disagreed with my article explaining why extended warranties for new tires are a waste of money:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8221; I seem to have a knack for getting nails in the sidewalls of at least two tires for every set of tires I own.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Pro tip: Sidewall failures rarely happen when the tires are installed with the tread-side down.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m Len Penzo and I approved this message.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: smaller;\">Photo Credit: brendan-c<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. Another glorious week comes to an end. Off we go &#8230; &#8220;When you see that trading is not [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-49340","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commentary","8":"pmpro-has-access","9":"entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Coffee: Weighing the Evidence Against the US Dollar<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id49340-black-coffee-23-june-2018.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Coffee: Weighing the Evidence Against the US Dollar\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It&#8217;s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe &#8230; Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what&#8217;s been going on in the world of money and personal finance. 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