{"id":44336,"date":"2017-08-05T05:15:03","date_gmt":"2017-08-05T12:15:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=44336"},"modified":"2017-08-07T16:50:22","modified_gmt":"2017-08-07T23:50:22","slug":"black-coffee-5-august-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id44336-black-coffee-5-august-2017.html","title":{"rendered":"Black Coffee: Oh, the Humanity"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe<\/em> …<\/p>\n

Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.<\/p>\n

Are you ready? I know I am, so here we go …<\/p>\n

“It’s not a matter of what’s true that counts, but a matter of what’s perceived to be true.”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

— Henry Kissinger<\/strong><\/p>\n

Credits and Debits<\/strong><\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Before 2017 is finished, retailers will have closed more than 6300 stores<\/a> thanks to many years of steady declines in sales and customer traffic. This is precisely why the stock market is currently in the middle of a brutal bear market that’s ripping the faces off even the most battle-tested Wall Street floor traders. Oh, wait …<\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> On Wednesday the Dow Jones Industrials crossed 22,000 for the first time ever, and on Friday the index closed the week with its eighth consecutive all-time high<\/a>. I’m sure by now, most investors are feeling like multi-millionaires, if not financial geniuses. Then there’s me.<\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Heck, it seems like only recently that everybody was rooting for the Dow to hit 20,000. Oh, yeah; that’s because it was<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Not everybody is celebrating though. Legendary Wall Street trader Art Cashin says the Dow’s seemingly relentless rise has him nervous because 50% of the index’s gains have come from just 10% of its stock components<\/a>. Hey, Art: shut up you big worrywart and enjoy the ride. People are making lots of easy money! Besides … it’s different this time. Right?<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> The recreational vehicle industry is enjoying record-breaking growth<\/a> too, and RV shipments are expected to surge to their highest level ever this year. By the way, the last two times RV sales saw similar spikes, sharp stock market corrections followed<\/a>. What’s that? Yeah … I should probably just shut up too.<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Then again, stock analyst Jason Goepfert is warning that the number of so-called Hindenburg omens just hit an all-time record<\/a> — and the only similar cluster that matches the current swarm occurred in early October 2000. Uh oh.<\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> Before you start pounding on your keyboards to send me a nasty comment, rest assured that I know exactly<\/em> what you’re thinking right now: What the heck is a Hindenburg omen?<\/em> Well … I’m not totally sure myself. But it sounds really scary, doesn’t it?<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Meanwhile, the US dollar is in the middle of its biggest collapse since 1985<\/a>. The greenback has lost 9% (!) against other currencies since January 1st — and technical indicators suggest it could soon fall even further. If so, that would almost certainly result in noticeable price increases for imported goods, including gasoline. We’ll see.<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> In fact, with the dollar plunging this year, it’s not too surprising that Alan Greenspan is now predicting that a return of 70s-style stagflation is right around the corner<\/a>. You know what that means: It won’t be long before everybody finally realizes that the worst thing about the 1970s wasn’t<\/em> disco.<\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> That isn’t the only prediction Mr. Greenspan made this week — he also said the massive Treasury bond bubble that’s been building for the past 35 years is living on borrowed time<\/a>. Apparently, bonds can be irrationally exuberant too.<\/p>\n

Credit:<\/strong><\/span> When the Fed began its tapering campaign, rates on the 10-year T-bill were more than 3%; and they were above 2.5% when tapering ended. Now they’re near 2.28%. So how come rates haven’t risen<\/a> even though 75% of historical T-bill buyers are now net sellers? Remember, when people don’t want your debt, rates should increase<\/em>. Say, do you think the Fed is secretly …? Nahhhh.<\/p>\n

Debit:<\/strong><\/span> Speaking of liabilities, how far would you<\/em> go to evade paying a debt? A woman in China used plastic surgery in order to avoid personal debts totaling $3.71 million. No, really<\/a>. The ruse didn’t work — but at least she’ll look great while she’s in prison.<\/p>\n

The Question of the Week<\/strong><\/p>\n

[poll id=\"175\"]<\/code><\/p>\n

Last Week’s Poll Results<\/strong><\/p>\n

Have you ever been the victim of a burglary?<\/p>\n