{"id":17355,"date":"2013-01-16T00:15:14","date_gmt":"2013-01-16T08:15:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/?p=17355"},"modified":"2014-04-19T10:37:33","modified_gmt":"2014-04-19T17:37:33","slug":"looking-back-at-my-magic-8-balls-predictions-for-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id17355-looking-back-at-my-magic-8-balls-predictions-for-2012.html","title":{"rendered":"Looking Back at My Magic 8-Ball’s Predictions for 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>For the past three years, I’ve been using my trusty Magic 8-Ball to predict the future. I know.<\/p>\n

Laugh all you want, folks, but it’s been quite successful over the years. In 2010, my Magic 8-Ball had an astounding 70% success rate<\/a>. The following year’s prognostications were almost as good; 66% of the predictions for 2011<\/a> turned out to be correct.<\/p>\n

With results like that, it’s no wonder people were lining up last January to ask my Magic 8-Ball what was in store for 2012<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So … How well did it do this time? Well, here’s a quick summary of the results:<\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will real estate continue to rebound in major cities such as San Francisco and New York?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Outlook not so good.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: According to the S&P\/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the latest available data shows composite year-over-year home prices in October 2012 for 20 of the biggest US cities climbed 4.3%<\/a>.
\nNostradamus meter: Wrong<\/strong><\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will the housing market continue its spiraling descent in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Outlook good.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: The number of home sales climbed 6%<\/a> last year. Believe it or not, that marks the first annual increase since 2005.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Wrong<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will a Republican be elected US president in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> It is certain.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: In November, voters reelected Barack Obama — a Democrat — to his second term as US president.
\nNostradamus meter: Wrong<\/strong><\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will the European Union break up?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> You may rely on it.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Despite all of its troubles, the European Union is still very much intact.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Wrong<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will Italy and Greece finally default on their debt?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Very doubtful.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Somehow, some way, Greece and Italy both managed to buy more time with their creditors and delay their eventual days of reckoning by kicking the can down the road a little further.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Correct<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will Prince William and Kate Middleton announce a pregnancy?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Without a doubt.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: On December 3rd, St. James Palace announced the happy couple were expecting their first<\/a> child. The new arrival will be third in line to the throne, after Princes Charles and William.
\nNostradamus meter: Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will the Green Bay Packers win the Super Bowl in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> My reply is no.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Despite ending the regular season with a stellar 15-1 record, the heavily-favored Packers were eliminated<\/a> in their first playoff game by the eventual Super Bowl winners, the New York Giants.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will Tiger Woods win a major championship in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Most likely.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Woods had a very good season<\/a> last year, winning three PGA Tour events and rising from 50th to 2nd in the world rankings — but he once again failed to win a coveted major, extending a four-year drought.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Wrong<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will Apple’s stock price end 2012 higher than its closing price on the day Steve Jobs died?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> You may rely on it.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: The day that Jobs’ death was announced, Apple’s closing share price<\/a> was $377.37. It ended 2012 an impressive 41% higher, at $532.17 per share.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will Apple finally begin issuing a dividend in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Outlook good.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Last March, cash-rich Apple announced it would finally begin distributing dividends<\/a>. The first quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share was handed out to shareholders in August.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will savings account interest rates rise in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> My sources say no.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Rise? Are you kidding? Saving account interest rates actually set record lows<\/a> in 2012. In fact, they’re now so low that, after accounting for inflation, people who use them end losing wealth.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong><\/strong>Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will inflation hit 4 percent in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Very doubtful.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Although the official numbers are dubious, the inflation rate as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index never approached 4%<\/a> at any time in 2012.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will the Dow break 13,500?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> My reply is no.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: The Dow broke the 13,500 mark back on September 13th.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Wrong<\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will Microsoft hit 30 bucks in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> As I see it, yes.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Although a share of Microsoft stock is currently under $30 — it closed at $27.21 on January 15, 2013 — its shares did indeed cross that mark last February.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong> <\/strong><\/strong>Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will the unemployment rate fall to 7 percent?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Yes.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: By even the most optimistic Department of Labor measure, last year the US unemployment rate never fell as low as 7%.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Wrong<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will gold top $2000?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Signs point to yes.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: At its 2012 highpoint last October, an ounce of gold managed to reach $1794. Since then, however, the yellow metal has fallen back below $1700.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Wrong<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will online poker become legalized in the U.S. in 2012 (and make the government billions in taxes)?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> It is certain.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: A bill to regulate online poker<\/a> was sponsored by Harry Reid (D-Nevada) and Jon Kyle (R-Arizona), but it never made it out of the US Senate in 2012.
\nNostradamus meter:<\/strong> <\/strong>Wrong<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will Jennifer Aniston get engaged in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Outlook good.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Sorry, fellas, but Jen became engaged<\/a> to actor Justin Theroux back on August 12th. (Better luck next time.)
\nNostradamus meter:<\/strong> Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will the components of the Dow stay unchanged in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Outlook not so good.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: On September 24 of last year, UnitedHealth Group replaced Kraft Foods<\/a> as one of the 30 companies that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It was the first change in the Dow since June 2009.
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Question:<\/strong> Will the world end in 2012?
\n8-Ball said:<\/strong> Don’t count on it.<\/em>
\nWhat really happened<\/strong>: Well … you’re reading this now, aren’t you?
\nNostradamus meter: <\/strong>Correct<\/strong><\/span><\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Add it all up and, excluding two personal questions received last year (not included in this summary) that were not related to finance or current events, my 8-Ball finished with a very respectable success rate of 55%.<\/p>\n

Overall, the Magic 8-Ball has correctly predicted 31 of 50 events since 2010, for a still-impressive three-year success rate of 62%.<\/p>\n

As you can see, the Mayans have nothing on my 8-Ball, folks.<\/p>\n

Photo Credit: bark<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For the past three years, I’ve been using my trusty Magic 8-Ball to predict the future. I know. Laugh all you want, folks, but it’s been quite successful over the years. In 2010, my Magic 8-Ball had an astounding 70% success rate. The following year’s prognostications were almost as good; 66% of the predictions for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[472],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-17355","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-commentary","7":"pmpro-has-access","8":"entry"},"yoast_head":"\nLooking Back at My Magic 8-Ball's Predictions for 2012<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/lenpenzo.com\/blog\/id17355-looking-back-at-my-magic-8-balls-predictions-for-2012.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Looking Back at My Magic 8-Ball's Predictions for 2012\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For the past three years, I’ve been using my trusty Magic 8-Ball to predict the future. 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